re: Want to Get Drafted in the NFL? Go to Kentucky, Not Alabama!

The analysis claims Kentucky is better at taking 3-star recruits and below and turning them into draft picks. But is there some underlying characteristic common to those type of players and why they pick a school like Kentucky?

Perhaps an easier way to think about this is comparing the SAT scores of students who take a prep course versus those who don't. When looking at the scores we are likely to conclude that taking a prep course improves scores. But this doesn't account for the fact that the type of students who enroll in a prep course are, on average, more likely to score better anyway. The question, then, is would a test prep course improve the score of a student who we did not observe in the course? This is a counter factual and we can only make the claim that it would if we can properly account for all unobserved factors.

Similarly, the question here is "Could Kentucky take a player who did not play at Kentucky and turn him into a draftee?" Again, that is a counter factual. Since it doesn't appear that the authors controlled for the selection issue, we cannot accurately say that going to Kentucky will improve a player's draft stock.

There are other issues they aren't accounting for though. How do they account for coaching changes? The staff that was at Kentucky over their sample period obviously isn't there now. So how do we know this result will show up in the future?

They were talking about this last night on ESPN about QBs. It makes sense for that position, bc the better programs have more talent on the line and the skill positions.