Using KenPom: Sporting News Predicts

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final 8

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This agitates my OCD that I don't have

Don't know if tRant will be able to contain me if we get to the elite 8.

Some interesting notes:

Throw out the two teams that were the biggest statistical anomalies since 2010 — VCU and Butler in 2010-11 — and nothing has been shocking in the national semifinals when taking KenPom into account. If a team is rated higher on both offense and defense, it can expect to beat anyone in any part of the tournament.

Top 8 teams overall:
1. Virginia (No. 1 in South)
2. Gonzaga (No. 1 in West)
3. Duke (No. 1 in East)
4. Michigan State (No. 2 in East)
5. Michigan (No. 2 in West)
6. North Carolina (No. 1 in Midwest)
7. Kentucky (No. 2 in Midwest)
8. Tennessee (No. 2 in South)


Top eight teams in adjusted offensive efficiency
1. Gonzaga (No. 1 in West)
2. Virginia (No. 1 in South)
3. Tennessee (No. 2 in South)
4. Michigan State (No. 2 in East)
5. Purdue (No. 3 in South)
6. Duke (No. 1 in East)
7. North Carolina (No. 1 in Midwest)
8. Auburn (No. 5 in Midwest)


Top eight teams in adjusted defensive efficiency
1. Texas Tech (No. 3 in West)
2. Michigan (No. 2 in West)
3. Wisconsin (No. 5 in South)
4. Kansas State (No. 4 in South)
5. Virginia (No. 1 in South)
6. Duke (No. 1 in East)
7. VCU (No. 8 in East)
8. Michigan State (No. 2 in East)


Four most likely first-round upsets
1. No. 9 Oklahoma over No. 8 Mississippi (South)
2. No. 10 Florida over No. 7 Nevada (West)
3. No. 10 Iowa over No. 7 Cincinnati (South)
4. No. 11 Saint Mary’s over No. 6 Villanova (South)


Eight most underrated teams in NCAA Tournament
1. Michigan State (No. 2 in East, No. 4 in KenPom)
2. Wisconsin (No. 5 in South, No. 12 in KenPom)
3. Auburn (No. 5 in Midwest, No. 13 in KenPom)
4. Iowa State (No. 6 in Midwest, No. 16 in KenPom)
5. Louisville (No. 7 in East, No. 17 in KenPom)
6. Wofford (No. 7 in Midwest, No. 19 in KenPom)
7. Florida (No. 10 in West, No. 28 in KenPom)
8. Saint Mary’s (No. 11 in South, No. 31 in KenPom)


Eight most overrated teams in NCAA Tournament
1. North Carolina (No. 1 in Midwest, No. 6 in KenPom)
2. Houston (No. 3 in Midwest, No. 15 in KenPom)
3. LSU (No. 3 in East, No. 18 in KenPom)
4. Kansas State (No. 4 in South, No. 23 in KenPom)
5. Marquette (No. 5 in West, No. 27 in KenPom)
6. Ole Miss (No. 8 in South, No. 44 in KenPom)
7. Washington (No. 9 in Midwest, No. 51 in KenPom)
8. Belmont (No. 11 in East, No. 54 in KenPom)

Good luck to all you turdbuckets!

Florida is definitely criminally underrated. I think they could absolutely make it to the Sweet 16.

KenPom has loved us all year.

I’ve seen final 8 & great 8 in posts on tRant. It’s been the Elite 8 for years. It def will rile up the OCD

How accurate was KenPom last year? Asking for a friend who's filing out multiple brackets.

KenPom is tgoat

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1. North Carolina

Stopped reading right there. That’s just ignorant

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I will say... if you zero in on North Carolina's finish, its not as impressive as you might think.

They finished the year winning 15 of their final 17 games.

However, 8 of those 17 games were against opponents who did not make the NCAA Tournament Field. Here were the other 9 games ranked in order of the opponents' ultimate NCAA Tournament seed:

1-seed- Duke- L- ACC Tournament
1-seed- Duke- W- Road game, but Duke was without Zion
1-seed- Duke- W- Home game, but Duke was without Zion
1-seed- Virginia- L- Home game
4-seed- Florida St.- W, Home game
4-seed- Virginia Tech- W, Home game
7-seed- Louisville- W, Road game
7-seed- Louisville- W, ACC Tournament game
8-seed- Syracuse- W, Home game

Yes, winning 15 of your final 17 is impressive. But when you account for the fact that both wins over Duke came without Zion on the court.... and for the fact that almost all the big games were in Chapel Hill, it does show that those Final 17 games were not quite as difficult as they might appear at first glance.

Don't get me wrong, UNC is and should be a 1-seed. But I think they are the most beatable 1-seed in the Tournament.