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The Hunt for SEC Host Sites
Posted on 5/9/22 at 8:43 am
Posted on 5/9/22 at 8:43 am
Tennessee is a lock at a national seed and Arkansas is a lock at a host site assuming they don't go 1-5 or 0-6 down the stretch.
The SEC will get at least 5 host sites possibly even 6 although less likely.
That leaves 3-4 spots left with 6 teams who could all get to 17 wins. I'm counting Florida in here because their remaining schedule is by far the lightest with Missouri and South Carolina. They'll need to sweep both series to have a chance...any loss and they're out of this conversation.
There's a log jam of 4 SEC teams outside of 50 so these Q1 wins drastically changed over the weekend and will continue to for the next two weeks.
Texas A&M 14-10 RPI 23 (13 Q1 wins)
LSU 14-10 RPI 17 (7 Q1 wins)
Auburn 13-11 RPI 10 (10 Q1 wins)
Georgia 13-11 RPI 9 (13 Q1 wins)
Vanderbilt 12-12 RPI 4 (7 Q1 wins)
Florida 11-13 RPI 12 (8 Q1 wins)
The SEC will get at least 5 host sites possibly even 6 although less likely.
That leaves 3-4 spots left with 6 teams who could all get to 17 wins. I'm counting Florida in here because their remaining schedule is by far the lightest with Missouri and South Carolina. They'll need to sweep both series to have a chance...any loss and they're out of this conversation.
There's a log jam of 4 SEC teams outside of 50 so these Q1 wins drastically changed over the weekend and will continue to for the next two weeks.
Texas A&M 14-10 RPI 23 (13 Q1 wins)
LSU 14-10 RPI 17 (7 Q1 wins)
Auburn 13-11 RPI 10 (10 Q1 wins)
Georgia 13-11 RPI 9 (13 Q1 wins)
Vanderbilt 12-12 RPI 4 (7 Q1 wins)
Florida 11-13 RPI 12 (8 Q1 wins)
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Posted on 5/9/22 at 9:08 am to Adam4848
The committee loves to pair SEC teams for the supers. If tenner is #1 you can bet an sec team will get the 16 seed. The same if Arkansas holds on to a national seed.
Posted on 5/9/22 at 9:23 am to Adam4848
If we’re setting the magic number at 17 wins in conference, Tennessee might be the only team from the East to earn a regional host.
Vanderbilt is sitting at 12 wins with series left @Arkansas and vs LSU. They definitely have the toughest schedule left and would need to win 5 of 6.
UGA is at 13 wins but is staring down their 3rd straight series loss with a trip to Tennessee this weekend. They will then host Mizzou. They’ll need to win 4 of 6.
UF at 11 wins needs to sweep both Mizzou and USCe.
Moving to the West…
LSU sits at 14 wins with Ole Miss coming to Baton Rouge and finishing @Vanderbilt. If LSU takes 2/3 in both series, that will get them to 18 wins and in line for a national seed. A win or two in the SECT would all but lock that up.
A&M sits at 14 wins with the MS schools left on their schedule. Similar to LSU, if they take 2/3 in both series, that will get them to 18 wins and in line for a national seed. They could also use a win or two in the SECT as insurance.
Auburn sits at 13 wins with Alabama and Kentucky left on their schedule. If they win both series, they’ll be sitting at 17 wins with a solid RPI, all but guaranteeing that they host.
With all that said, I believe the SEC Regional Hosts will be:
Tennessee
Arkansas
LSU
Auburn
A&m
Vanderbilt is sitting at 12 wins with series left @Arkansas and vs LSU. They definitely have the toughest schedule left and would need to win 5 of 6.
UGA is at 13 wins but is staring down their 3rd straight series loss with a trip to Tennessee this weekend. They will then host Mizzou. They’ll need to win 4 of 6.
UF at 11 wins needs to sweep both Mizzou and USCe.
Moving to the West…
LSU sits at 14 wins with Ole Miss coming to Baton Rouge and finishing @Vanderbilt. If LSU takes 2/3 in both series, that will get them to 18 wins and in line for a national seed. A win or two in the SECT would all but lock that up.
A&M sits at 14 wins with the MS schools left on their schedule. Similar to LSU, if they take 2/3 in both series, that will get them to 18 wins and in line for a national seed. They could also use a win or two in the SECT as insurance.
Auburn sits at 13 wins with Alabama and Kentucky left on their schedule. If they win both series, they’ll be sitting at 17 wins with a solid RPI, all but guaranteeing that they host.
With all that said, I believe the SEC Regional Hosts will be:
Tennessee
Arkansas
LSU
Auburn
A&m
Posted on 5/9/22 at 9:34 am to Adam4848
The SEC and ACC are running away with things. I could see 5-6 hosts from each. Currently, both conferences have around 7 that are on the cusp.
The Pac and Big 12 are looking like 1 host each. Both will likely be national seeds. OSU and OSU.
After that... There is DBU, Georgia Southern, and Southern Miss. All 3 with decent RPIs, but some warts too. Like despite 13 Q1 wins, DBU is 3rd in the Missouri Valley.
Am I missing anyone?
The Pac and Big 12 are looking like 1 host each. Both will likely be national seeds. OSU and OSU.
After that... There is DBU, Georgia Southern, and Southern Miss. All 3 with decent RPIs, but some warts too. Like despite 13 Q1 wins, DBU is 3rd in the Missouri Valley.
Am I missing anyone?
Posted on 5/9/22 at 9:41 am to Farmer1906
That about sums it up.
DBU is absolutely deserving of a host spot right now because of their out of conference scheduling. If they win Tuesday against Oklahoma St. there's not much else they can do RPI wise to boost their stock no matter where they finish in conference.
DBU is absolutely deserving of a host spot right now because of their out of conference scheduling. If they win Tuesday against Oklahoma St. there's not much else they can do RPI wise to boost their stock no matter where they finish in conference.
Posted on 5/9/22 at 10:09 am to Poker_hog
If it’s left up to a committee A&M is getting fricked either way 
Posted on 5/9/22 at 10:16 am to Colonel Ingus
A&M has an RPI problem it likely won't be able to fix for a national seed. Even with two series wins, we probably have some work to do at Hoover to help the RPI.
RPI Needs Report
A&M
Top 45: 2 wins
Top 32: 4 wins
Top 16: 6 wins (have to sweep someone)
Top 8: Cannot Make
RPI Needs Report
A&M
Top 45: 2 wins
Top 32: 4 wins
Top 16: 6 wins (have to sweep someone)
Top 8: Cannot Make
Posted on 5/9/22 at 10:23 am to Poker_hog
quote:
The committee loves to pair SEC teams for the supers. If tenner is #1 you can bet an sec team will get the 16 seed. The same if Arkansas holds on to a national seed.
Posted on 5/9/22 at 10:26 am to Poker_hog
quote:
The committee loves to pair SEC teams for the supers. If tenner is #1 you can bet an sec team will get the 16 seed. The same if Arkansas holds on to a national seed.
On the plus side, it guarantees SEC teams in Omaha.
Posted on 5/11/22 at 8:44 am to Farmer1906
DBU with last nights win is tied for most Q1 wins in the nation. I think they locked up a host site no matter what happens the rest of the way.
Posted on 5/11/22 at 8:48 am to Adam4848
UT, Arkansas, aTm, UGA and LSU will be host sites. I think UT, aTm and Arkansas are locks. aTm and Arkansas are 9-3 against top 25 teams. LSU don’t have a good record against top 25 teams but there defense is holding them back. End of the day I would not be shocked if these was the only 5 teams this year hosting. It’s a shock not to see Vandy, Ole Miss and Mississippi State all not hosting in the same year.
Posted on 5/11/22 at 8:52 am to VolMarine1371
nm
This post was edited on 5/11/22 at 8:53 am
Posted on 5/11/22 at 8:52 am to Adam4848
quote:
DBU with last nights win is tied for most Q1 wins in the nation. I think they locked up a host site no matter what happens the rest of the way.
You'd generally think so with their Q1 record and their RPI, but they're winning most of these Q1 games in the midweek. Their conference record is 9-6. They still have a series left against Indiana St who is decent enough. I think it will be very interesting if DBU finishes around .500 in the MVC.
Posted on 5/11/22 at 8:54 am to lsufball19
Do you penalize them for playing ranked teams every midweek if you were in charge?
If they end up as a 2 seed I would be livid as the hosting team.
If they end up as a 2 seed I would be livid as the hosting team.
Posted on 5/11/22 at 9:01 am to Adam4848
quote:
Do you penalize them for playing ranked teams every midweek if you were in charge?
No, I'm not saying you penalize them for that. I'm saying I'm not sure I've ever seen a mid-major get awarded a host site with a conference record hovering around .500. They're in a very unique circumstance. The RPI is merely a mathematical algorithm. But, adding the human element, beating a team in the midweek is very different than beating them in a weekend series. Would they have beaten Oklahoma St., Oklahoma, TCU, Baylor, La Tech, etc in series? The Q1 teams they have played in weekend series are Wofford (#22), Maryland (#17), Southern Miss (#17), San Diego (#45), and SE Missouri (#49). They went 1-2 against Wofford, 2-1 against Maryland, 3-0, against Southern Miss, 2-1 against San Diego, and 1-2 against SE Missouri. I also don't think you can count on San Diego and SE Missouri to remain Q1 wins.
Posted on 5/11/22 at 9:02 am to lsufball19
I was thinking the same in regards to DBU’s 9-6 conference record, when the next best RPI in their conference is #75 and they sit at 12-3
Posted on 5/11/22 at 9:03 am to Adam4848
It's strange that Ole Miss and MSU aren't even in this discussion.
Posted on 5/11/22 at 9:10 am to Adam4848
We know Bama ain’t hosting nothing but a postseason team banquet.
Posted on 5/11/22 at 9:15 am to Adam4848
Arkansas & Tennessee will be the two Top 8 national seeds.
if it was seeded today -
1 Tennessee - Maryland 16
2 Oregon St - Notre Dame 15
3 Oklahoma St - Gonzaga 14
4 Virginia Tech - Southern Miss 13
5 Arkansas - Virginia 12
6 Louisville - Connecticut 11
7 Stanford - UMiami 10
8 Texas Tech - Texas A&M 9
Auburn, Georgia, LSU, Vanderbilt each 2 seeds. Florida 3 seed.
if it was seeded today -
1 Tennessee - Maryland 16
2 Oregon St - Notre Dame 15
3 Oklahoma St - Gonzaga 14
4 Virginia Tech - Southern Miss 13
5 Arkansas - Virginia 12
6 Louisville - Connecticut 11
7 Stanford - UMiami 10
8 Texas Tech - Texas A&M 9
Auburn, Georgia, LSU, Vanderbilt each 2 seeds. Florida 3 seed.
This post was edited on 5/11/22 at 9:24 am
Posted on 5/11/22 at 9:18 am to 1801
Texas Tech isn’t getting a national seed lol
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