The CFP picture isn't as murky as it looks

The pecking order:

#1 SEC champion 13-0 - In
#2 ACC champion (12-1 Clemson OR 13-0 Miami) - In (Miami being undefeated would eliminate ND)
#3 Notre Dame* 11-1 - In (this scenario would eliminate Miami)
#4 Wisconsin 13-0 - In

Those are your "first four" groups. Losses by the above teams open up spots for the other contenders

SEC runner-up 12-1
Oklahoma 12-1
Washington 12-1

Many people will correctly point out that Wisconsin likely isn't as good as the others, but a 13-0 Big Ten champion is not getting left out for 1-loss teams. Besides, by that point they'll have a few more ok wins (Iowa, Big Ten champ game, etc.)

*Interesting thing: UGA has a better chance of making it as an SEC runner up than Alabama does IMO for a simple reason, Notre Dame. The committee wants Notre Dame in the playoff and they can't take Notre Dame ahead of UGA. The only way Notre Dame makes the playoffs is if UGA is also in the playoffs. As such, if UGA is a bubble team, an 11-1 Notre Dame makes it impossible to exclude them and include ND.

These scenarios assume things go mostly according to expectations of course. Major upsets can reshuffle the whole deck. If Auburn beats #1 UGA, then #1 Bama, then say #4 UGA again, all within 4 weeks, they make a strong case for being the first 2 loss team in the playoff.