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Teams Returning the Most Production
Posted on 2/7/20 at 12:25 pm
Posted on 2/7/20 at 12:25 pm
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Interesting article and not surprising to see LSU ranked 126 out of 130 in returning production. Most people have noted how LSU is losing a lot. What’s more surprising is that Alabama is ranked 127. Also, Kentucky and A&M bringing back a lot and look promising for next year.
Interesting article and not surprising to see LSU ranked 126 out of 130 in returning production. Most people have noted how LSU is losing a lot. What’s more surprising is that Alabama is ranked 127. Also, Kentucky and A&M bringing back a lot and look promising for next year.
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Posted on 2/7/20 at 12:27 pm to PentagonTiger
Well I’m not sure bringing back last years team is a good thing for A&M
Posted on 2/7/20 at 12:29 pm to PentagonTiger
It is an important statistic, but LSU and Alabama have been recruiting well for a long, long time. They will be okay.
Posted on 2/7/20 at 12:35 pm to PentagonTiger
Alabama’s production is kind of messed up because we started slinging the ball with Tua. We will run much more this year and still have 2 first round receivers.
Posted on 2/7/20 at 12:41 pm to Tide and Seek
But having 2 first round WRs return when what you did last year was sling the ball around should help, not hurt your production numbers
Posted on 2/7/20 at 12:47 pm to Terrific Tales
quote:
Well I’m not sure bringing back last years team is a good thing for A&M
The big elephant in the room is mond. They have some talent though.
Posted on 2/7/20 at 12:49 pm to Tigerbait357
quote:
The big elephant in the room is mond. They have some talent though.
And unfortunately the other options on their roster aren’t much better.
Posted on 2/7/20 at 12:51 pm to PentagonTiger
Production? Haven't seen some of that in years. Hope is kickin in tho
Posted on 2/7/20 at 12:53 pm to PentagonTiger
If Terry Wilson has a healthy return, Kentucky can potentially have another big year like 2018.
Posted on 2/7/20 at 12:59 pm to PentagonTiger
I don’t care what LSU’s bringing back if one of their name’s not Joe Burrow.
Posted on 2/7/20 at 1:14 pm to Cobb Dawg
UGA 50% on offense and 80% on Defense.
Considering the (potentially) significant upgrade at WR, the fact that the QB position is being filled with a talented veteran, and the scheme overhaul I think the Dawgs are set up for a run.
We can expect the D to be one of the best - if not the best in the country.
Considering the (potentially) significant upgrade at WR, the fact that the QB position is being filled with a talented veteran, and the scheme overhaul I think the Dawgs are set up for a run.
We can expect the D to be one of the best - if not the best in the country.
Posted on 2/7/20 at 1:16 pm to PentagonTiger
quote:
And unfortunately the other options on their roster aren’t much better.
I’m going to disagree with you.
We just signed a 4* QB who ranks no. 3 nationally among 2020 dual-threat quarterbacks.
Dogging on Mond has become the “thing” to do on this board.
He’s not the best in conference, but he’s far from being a lousy QB.
Posted on 2/7/20 at 1:16 pm to PentagonTiger
A&M had production last season?
Posted on 2/7/20 at 1:18 pm to Terrific Tales
That’s my point, the returning production is misleading. We should be more well rounded this year.
Posted on 2/7/20 at 1:57 pm to Tigerbait357
Agreed. Gotta see if he makes that leap, I think better Oline play will help
Posted on 2/7/20 at 2:00 pm to PentagonTiger
quote:
Interesting article
His methodology is interesting and subjective in a lot of ways.
Offense formula:
quote:
In terms of turnover and attrition, some positions are indeed more important than others.
After years of tinkering, I've found that the following percentages create the strongest tie between returning production on offense and the following year's improvement and regression:
• Percentage of last season's QB passing yards returning: 32% of offensive returning production formula
• Percentage of last season's WR/TE receiving yards returning: 32%
• Percentage of career starts returning on the offensive line: 17.5%
• Percentage of last season's offensive line snaps returning: 12%
• Percentage of last season's RB rushing yards returning: 6.5%
At first glance, this might seem a bit surprising. It of course makes sense that returning your starting quarterback is important, but continuity in the receiving corps carries equal weight. Meanwhile, rushing yards are far easier to replace.
Those percentage weights seem pretty arbitrary. Returning RB rushing yards is heavily discounted and apparently returning RB receiving yards doesn't even count at all in his returning production formula.
His Defense formula:
quote:
On defense, continuity on the line matters far less than continuity in pass defense. Because teams differ so much in their use of linemen (some teams feature three in their base defense, some four), linebackers (three to five) and defensive backs (four to five), it's a bit trickier to derive the importance of each unit. So while I still use unit-level numbers, I also feature full-defense numbers to a degree.
• Percentage of defensive returning production formula derived from defensive line: 5%
• Percentage derived from secondary: 37%
• Percentage derived from full defense: 21%
What is "production" from a defensive standpoint? I've found that while raw tackle figures are important, having to replace disruption matters just as much. Tackles for loss (including sacks) account for 15% of the formula, while passes defensed, perhaps surprisingly, account for 33%. These are evidently the skills most difficult to replace.
So if returning production in the secondary is worth 37% and defensive line is worth 5%, does that mean the secondary is seven times more important than the line? Not necessarily. It simply means that turnover among defensive backs has much more of an impact. Obviously defensive line play matters, but perhaps raw talent matters more than continuity up front?
His defensive formula seems like even a bigger arbitrary mess and seems to heavily discount the impact of returning starters on the defensive line (5% of the defensive formula). That seems VERY low. Plus his defensive formula listed doesn't even add up to 100. What about linebackers?
Posted on 2/7/20 at 2:03 pm to PentagonTiger
quote:
Returning the Most Production
That's one of the most useless (least useful?) stats around.
In 2017, Guice had 1251 yards rushing, representing 46% of LSU's rushing yards for the season. He did not return for 2018.
In 2018, Brosette returned, but he only represented 3.6% of LSU's 2017 rushing yards. He gained 1039 yards, or 46% of LSU total rushing yards in 2018. He did not return for 2019.
In 2019, CEH returned after gaining 29% of LSU's rushing yards the previous year. He gained 57% (1414 yards) of LSU rushing production in 2019. He will not return.
For 2020, the Tigers return Ty Davis-Price who had 295 yards, or 12% of LSU's 2019 rushing yards. How does that 12% reflect on what his contribution will be in 2020?
Each of the past three years LSU has had a different 1,000 yard rusher after the previous one didn't return. How can anyone look at returning rushing production and make any rational predictions about LSU's 2020 rushing productivity?
Posted on 2/7/20 at 2:04 pm to PentagonTiger
126. LSU 42% 30% (128) 54% (91)
127. Air Force 42% 46% (106) 38% (121)
127. Alabama 42% 46% (106) 38% (121)
129. UTEP 41% 39% (118) 44% (118)
130. Utah 37% 48% (104) 27% (130)
Which of these two teams has the greatest dropoff?
127. Air Force 42% 46% (106) 38% (121)
127. Alabama 42% 46% (106) 38% (121)
129. UTEP 41% 39% (118) 44% (118)
130. Utah 37% 48% (104) 27% (130)
Which of these two teams has the greatest dropoff?
Posted on 2/7/20 at 2:11 pm to KaiserSoze99
quote:
126. LSU 42% 30% (128) 54% (91)
127. Air Force 42% 46% (106) 38% (121)
127. Alabama 42% 46% (106) 38% (121)
129. UTEP 41% 39% (118) 44% (118)
130. Utah 37% 48% (104) 27% (130)
Which of these two teams has the greatest dropoff?
A&M.
Posted on 2/7/20 at 2:16 pm to WildTchoupitoulas
I’m sure if it said LSU was bringing back a ton of production you’d be posting it trash talking other fans. But it’s a useless stat cause it doesn’t show your team in a bright light
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