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Study finds refs are 10% less likely to throw flags on Alabama compared to other SEC teams
Posted on 11/6/17 at 7:49 pm
Posted on 11/6/17 at 7:49 pm
quote:
Do officials paid by the top NCAA conferences slant their calls—even if only unconsciously—to help their employers’ top teams? New research suggests the answer is yes.
Unlike in NCAA basketball, which draws referees from pools overseen by groups of conferences, most football referees are hired, trained, rewarded, and disciplined by individual conferences. That means officials are entrusted with making decisions that could hurt their employers—as with the call in the Clemson-FSU game. Clemson was the ACC team with the better shot at making the College Football Playoff and the financial bonanza it dangles.
“This is an incestuous situation,” says Rhett Brymer, a business management professor at Miami University in Oxford, Ohio. He spent more than a year parsing almost 39,000 fouls called in games involving NCAA Football Bowl Subdivision teams in the 2012-2015 seasons. His research finds “ample evidence of biases among conference officials,” including “conference officials showing partiality towards teams with the highest potential to generate revenue for their conference.
Across the 3,000-odd regular-season and bowl games he studied, a bit less than half of the fouls called were what he terms “discretionary”—holding, pass interference, unsportsmanlike conduct, and personal fouls like roughing the passer. Refs were on average 10 percent less likely to throw discretionary flags on teams that enjoy both strong playoff prospects and winning traditions. Brymer calls these teams “protected flagships.”
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Posted on 11/6/17 at 7:53 pm to Bench McElroy
Seems like a waste of State research dollars
Posted on 11/6/17 at 7:54 pm to Bench McElroy
Is it possible that protected flagship teams are often coached better and are therefore less likely to commit penalties? This is an element the study ignores. Potential explanation for some of the correlation.
This post was edited on 11/6/17 at 7:55 pm
Posted on 11/6/17 at 7:54 pm to Mr. Elvert
Sounds a little low but close enough
Posted on 11/6/17 at 8:04 pm to AggieDub14
Yes. It appears that this study assumes that all teams commit penalties at the same rate, and the only difference is how often those penalties are actually called. That seems... questionable.
Posted on 11/6/17 at 8:13 pm to Bench McElroy
Could it be that protected flagship schools in the study may just be 10% better coached/disciplined than other schools on the whole?
Posted on 11/6/17 at 8:18 pm to Bench McElroy
Bama.
Hmmmm... yeah, there’s Auburn.
Oh, and there’s LSU and Florida.
So all the SEC powers are covered.
Hmmmm... yeah, there’s Auburn.
Oh, and there’s LSU and Florida.
So all the SEC powers are covered.
Posted on 11/6/17 at 8:20 pm to Bench McElroy
quote:
Flagship Teams are football programs with an all-time winning percentage of more than .600
What's LSU doing there? I thought we sucked until 2000 @Eli Goldfinger
This post was edited on 11/6/17 at 8:25 pm
Posted on 11/6/17 at 8:20 pm to Bench McElroy
So, the best teams commit fewer penalties?
You don't say...
You don't say...
Posted on 11/6/17 at 8:23 pm to TheTideMustRoll
quote:
Yes. It appears that this study assumes that all teams commit penalties at the same rate, and the only difference is how often those penalties are actually called. That seems... questionable.
Questionable? More than that, it seems like the study was done by some stat geeks who are pretty clueless about the sport itself.
Posted on 11/6/17 at 8:29 pm to Che Boludo
I don't think so, it's all about the money for the conference.
Posted on 11/6/17 at 9:10 pm to Bench McElroy
Typically teams with better talent and coaching commit less penalties.
One would expect higher ranked teams to naturally commit less penalties than lower ranked teams on average on this basis alone.
Committing less penalties is one of the aspects of being a good team anyway.
Thus this whole analysis is a self-fulfilling prophecy.
One would expect higher ranked teams to naturally commit less penalties than lower ranked teams on average on this basis alone.
Committing less penalties is one of the aspects of being a good team anyway.
Thus this whole analysis is a self-fulfilling prophecy.
This post was edited on 11/6/17 at 9:18 pm
Posted on 11/6/17 at 9:12 pm to AggieDub14
quote:
Is it possible that protected flagship teams are often coached better and are therefore less likely to commit penalties? This is an element the study ignores. Potential explanation for some of the correlation.
I skimmed through the paper to see how it was modeled, and no controls for that were listed. If I was reviewing the paper for an academic journal, I'd reject it on those grounds.
Posted on 11/6/17 at 9:22 pm to AggieDub14
The study is on discretionary calls. Which is what negates the "better teams don't make as many penalties" argument.
Posted on 11/6/17 at 9:27 pm to madddoggydawg
quote:
The study is on discretionary calls. Which is what negates the "better teams don't make as many penalties" argument.
discretionary penalties doesn't always mean "it could've gone either way." There are blatant discretionary penalties. Just because it isn't a false start or delay of game doesn't mean you can throw discipline and talent out the window
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