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SP+ Rating Change after Week 1
Posted on 9/28/20 at 11:31 am
Posted on 9/28/20 at 11:31 am
Interestingly, most of the SEC took a hit to their SP+ rating after actually playing a game. Here's how each teams' overall score was affected:
**The number of teams included in the SP+ analysis rose from 91 up to 126 now that several conferences decided to play a season... therefore, most teams moved back in the rankings just because new teams like Oregon and USC, etc. are now included
+3.8 Mississippi State (from #39 to #38)
+2.7 Auburn (from #11 to #6)
+0.8 Vanderbilt (from #81 to #110)
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-0.7 South Carolina (from #28 to #34)
-0.7 Arkansas (from #55 to #75)
-0.9 Missouri (from #36 to #48)
-1.8 Georgia (from #4 to #4)
-1.8 Ole Miss (from #31 to #44)
-1.8 Florida (from #5 to #8)
-2.2 Tennessee (from #16 to #24)
-3.2 Alabama (from #2 to #3)
-5.1 Texas A&M (from #12 to #19)
-6.1 LSU (from #13 to #25)
-6.3 Kentucky (from #20 to #43)
I think its interesting that Florida fell quite a bit yet in the human polls, they seemed to get a huge boost this week. What did the human voters see in UF this week that the unbiased data did not?
Not surprisingly, LSU's rating fell more than 6 points.... yet they did not have the worst week. It was Kentucky who suffered the largest fall in terms of rating.
Auburn and MSU were the only team to actually rise in the rankings in terms of actual rank... Georgia stayed flat. All 11 other SEC teams fell in the rankings.
**The number of teams included in the SP+ analysis rose from 91 up to 126 now that several conferences decided to play a season... therefore, most teams moved back in the rankings just because new teams like Oregon and USC, etc. are now included
+3.8 Mississippi State (from #39 to #38)
+2.7 Auburn (from #11 to #6)
+0.8 Vanderbilt (from #81 to #110)
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-0.7 South Carolina (from #28 to #34)
-0.7 Arkansas (from #55 to #75)
-0.9 Missouri (from #36 to #48)
-1.8 Georgia (from #4 to #4)
-1.8 Ole Miss (from #31 to #44)
-1.8 Florida (from #5 to #8)
-2.2 Tennessee (from #16 to #24)
-3.2 Alabama (from #2 to #3)
-5.1 Texas A&M (from #12 to #19)
-6.1 LSU (from #13 to #25)
-6.3 Kentucky (from #20 to #43)
I think its interesting that Florida fell quite a bit yet in the human polls, they seemed to get a huge boost this week. What did the human voters see in UF this week that the unbiased data did not?
Not surprisingly, LSU's rating fell more than 6 points.... yet they did not have the worst week. It was Kentucky who suffered the largest fall in terms of rating.
Auburn and MSU were the only team to actually rise in the rankings in terms of actual rank... Georgia stayed flat. All 11 other SEC teams fell in the rankings.
This post was edited on 9/28/20 at 11:33 am
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Posted on 9/28/20 at 11:34 am to BHMKyle
Connelly I think referred to us in a tweet as #5, so I’m assuming the apparent tie with Texas is an actual tie and not just the result of rounding
Posted on 9/28/20 at 11:36 am to BHMKyle
They saw Florida missing half their starters on defense and beating a decent SEC team on the road with the healthy side of the ball absolutely dominating.
Georgia stayed because they late covered a spread. Anyone who watched the game saw trouble for Georgia. I mean..you averaged 4.3 YPP and 2.9 yards per rush vs Arkansas. That is bad.
Georgia stayed because they late covered a spread. Anyone who watched the game saw trouble for Georgia. I mean..you averaged 4.3 YPP and 2.9 yards per rush vs Arkansas. That is bad.
Posted on 9/28/20 at 11:37 am to BHMKyle
It's really too early to gain much valuable information from computer rankings. And sadly, with the lack of games this year, especially out of conference games, it's likely to not be a great indicator of anything even after the regular season is over.
Posted on 9/28/20 at 11:39 am to Gatorbait2008
quote:
They saw Florida missing half their starters on defense and beating a decent SEC team on the road with the healthy side of the ball absolutely dominating.
Georgia stayed because they late covered a spread. Anyone who watched the game saw trouble for Georgia. I mean..you averaged 4.3 YPP and 2.9 yards per rush vs Arkansas. That is bad.
I didn't watch that game, but how much of that was Georgia shooting itself in the foot and how much was it Arkansas really giving them trouble?
Cuz that shooting yourself in the foot thing gets cleaned up and you end up with a final score like we saw. Means Georgia is probably a much better team than people are admitting too.
Posted on 9/28/20 at 11:39 am to 3down10
quote:
It's really too early to gain much valuable information from computer rankings. And sadly, with the lack of games this year, especially out of conference games, it's likely to not be a great indicator of anything even after the regular season is over.
Yea - you'll really only be able to use it internally within conferences, though you should have a really good idea by week 5-6 about those conferences because of all the cross-polination between divisions.
Posted on 9/28/20 at 11:41 am to Gatorbait2008
quote:
2.9 yards per rush vs Arkansas
This was the most surprising thing, obviously the 1st half pass game was not doing any favors for the run game but in other years they are picking up half a first down every run against this Arkansas defense.
Posted on 9/28/20 at 11:42 am to 3down10
In the first half it was both. Their line got no push on Arky and they had 11 penalties as well.
Posted on 9/28/20 at 11:43 am to 3down10
quote:
I didn't watch that game, but how much of that was Georgia shooting itself in the foot and how much was it Arkansas really giving them trouble?
Georgia had 73 yards of penalties in a quarter, freshman QB looked lost when the penalties and a couple of miscues took him off his game, and Felipe Franks threw a pretty ball on a busted play for a long TD.
Other than that it was pretty much a standard, boring, Kirby special. Ferocious defense squeezes the life out of an opponent. Offense turned it on when they had to, cleared out the box, and looked much different in second half behind Bennett.
There are legit concerns, but UGA isn't as bad as some folks are hoping.
Posted on 9/28/20 at 11:45 am to Gatorbait2008
quote:
mean..you averaged 4.3 YPP and 2.9 yards per rush vs Arkansas. That is bad.
That’s because Mathis couldn’t hit anything. Arkansas sold out to stop the run.
RB yards per carry
Before Stetson’s first possession: 2.4 YPC
After Stetson’s first possession: 6.3 YPC
Posted on 9/28/20 at 11:46 am to rockiee
The UGA Oline looked less than ideal vs an overmatched Arky. But as expected that recruiting paid off and UGA was able to run up the score against a used up Arky team after the game was decided. At 3ish minutes left in the 3rd it was a 20-10 game and was over.
Posted on 9/28/20 at 11:47 am to 3down10
quote:
I didn't watch that game, but how much of that was Georgia shooting itself in the foot and how much was it Arkansas really giving them trouble?
A bit of both, this Arkansas team doesn't look like the previous two years so far. That could just be 1st game, new head coach energy. Way too early to draw any major conclusions yet.
quote:
Cuz that shooting yourself in the foot thing gets cleaned up and you end up with a final score like we saw. Means Georgia is probably a much better team than people are admitting too.
Eh, they are not as bad as they looked in the 1st half but they still only scored 28 points on offense against a terrible defense last year and got alot of help from the Arkansas offense. Could just be that the Arkansas defense is improved a decent amount though.
Posted on 9/28/20 at 11:49 am to diddlydawg7
quote:
That’s because Mathis couldn’t hit anything. Arkansas sold out to stop the run.
RB yards per carry
Before Stetson’s first possession: 2.4 YPC
After Stetson’s first possession: 6.3 YPC
You are not wrong but in previous years, this Arkansas defense couldn't stop the run even when they knew it was coming every time.
Posted on 9/28/20 at 11:54 am to Gatorbait2008
quote:
Georgia stayed because they late covered a spread. Anyone who watched the game saw trouble for Georgia. I mean..you averaged 4.3 YPP and 2.9 yards per rush vs Arkansas. That is bad.
I didn't say anything about Georgia looking good. Why so defensive?
quote:
They saw Florida missing half their starters on defense and beating a decent SEC team on the road with the healthy side of the ball absolutely dominating.
Florida's offense looked great.
Most teams ranked in the AP Top 3 however do not give up 35 points and 7.9 yards/play to unranked opponents. I understand Florida had lots of kids out, but there are some major red flags with the defense.
Everyone knows Georgia's offense was horrific in Week 1... I'm just a bit unsure why folks are giving the Florida defense such a pass when they struggled mightily. Had someone told you on Friday evening that the Gators would give up nearly 8 yards per play on defense, there's no way you would have been content with that. Yet somehow everyone's whitewashing the stats and pretending like it didn't happen.
Posted on 9/28/20 at 11:55 am to diddlydawg7
quote:
That’s because Mathis couldn’t hit anything. Arkansas sold out to stop the run.
RB yards per carry
Before Stetson’s first possession: 2.4 YPC
After Stetson’s first possession: 6.3 YPC
I see what you are saying, but couldn't some of that also be to Arky wearing thin on depth and getting gassed?
Posted on 9/28/20 at 11:59 am to BHMKyle
quote:
-3.2 Alabama (from #2 to #3)
Guess Alabama should've left in the starters, won by 60.
Posted on 9/28/20 at 12:12 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
Everyone knows Georgia's offense was horrific in Week 1... I'm just a bit unsure why folks are giving the Florida defense such a pass when they struggled mightily. Had someone told you on Friday evening that the Gators would give up nearly 8 yards per play on defense, there's no way you would have been content with that. Yet somehow everyone's whitewashing the stats and pretending like it didn't happen.
Defenses take longer to gel than offenses. That's probably a big reason.
Posted on 9/28/20 at 12:31 pm to higgs_boson
quote:
quote:
That’s because Mathis couldn’t hit anything. Arkansas sold out to stop the run.
RB yards per carry
Before Stetson’s first possession: 2.4 YPC
After Stetson’s first possession: 6.3 YPC
I see what you are saying, but couldn't some of that also be to Arky wearing thin on depth and getting gassed?
The statistical issue is DWan Mathis shows 12 run attempts for -10 yards.
If we are talking about offensive success, all of those attempts matter.
If we are talking about the run game, we have 2 bad snaps got -14 yards, 3 sacks for 31 yards, and Mathis being very indecisive with the ball where he scrambled out of bounds for losses at the end of the game. None of that is indicative of Zamir White getting 71 yards and a TD on 13 attempts.
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