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SOG Prediction Model - SEC Week 7
Posted on 10/11/20 at 3:20 pm
Posted on 10/11/20 at 3:20 pm
We've got 3 solid weeks of SEC vs SEC games to work with, so might as well try the model again.
#2 Alabama (-5) vs #3 Georgia (O/U 55)
Georgia Season Stats
Offensive Yards Per Play: 5.27 (97% of opponents avg allowed)
Offensive Yards Per Point: 13.63
Defensive Yards Per Play: 3.70 (65% of opponents avg)
Defensive Yards Per Point: 19.19
Alabama Season Stats
Offensive Yards Per Play: 8.66 (130% of opponents avg allowed)
Offensive Yards Per Point: 10.99
Defensive Yards Per Play: 6.01 (83% of opponents avg)
Defensive Yards Per Point: 15.59
Score Prediction
Georgia - 29
Alabama - 26
Georgia: 395 yards on 80 plays (4.94 YPP)
Alabama: 399 yards on 65 plays (6.14 YPP)
#10 Florida (-14) vs LSU (O/U 70.5)
Florida Season Stats
Offensive Yards Per Play: 7.61 (109% of opponents avg allowed)
Offensive Yards Per Point: 13.21
Defensive Yards Per Play: 6.32 (95% of opponents avg)
Defensive Yards Per Point: 14.85
LSU Season Stats
Offensive Yards Per Play: 6.34 (112% of opponents avg allowed)
Offensive Yards Per Point: 13.47
Defensive Yards Per Play: 7.00 (161% of opponents avg)
Defensive Yards Per Point: 15.46
Score Prediction
Florida - 41
LSU - 37
Florida: 547 yards on 61 plays (8.97 YPP)
LSU: 496 yards on 76 plays (6.53 YPP)
South Carolina vs #15 Auburn (-3) (O/U 50.5)
South Carolina Season Stats
Offensive Yards Per Play: 5.42 (80% of opponents avg allowed)
Offensive Yards Per Point: 15.77
Defensive Yards Per Play: 5.57 (102% of opponents avg)
Defensive Yards Per Point: 13.04
Auburn Season Stats
Offensive Yards Per Play: 5.22 (117% of opponents avg allowed)
Offensive Yards Per Point: 14.11
Defensive Yards Per Play: 5.66 (115% of opponents avg)
Defensive Yards Per Point: 18.57
Score Prediction
Auburn - 26
South Carolina - 24
Auburn: 366 yards on 63 plays (5.81 YPP)
South Carolina: 384 yards on 73 plays (5.26 YPP)
Arkansas vs Ole Miss (-3.5) (O/U 77)
Arkansas Season Stats
Offensive Yards Per Play: 4.86 (109% of opponents avg allowed)
Offensive Yards Per Point: 14.61
Defensive Yards Per Play: 5.07 (93% of opponents avg)
Defensive Yards Per Point: 15.22
Ole Miss Season Stats
Offensive Yards Per Play: 7.44 (147% of opponents avg allowed)
Offensive Yards Per Point: 14.49
Defensive Yards Per Play: 8.79 (142% of opponents avg)
Defensive Yards Per Point: 12.41
Score Prediction
Arkansas - 38.7
Ole Miss - 38.6
Arkansas: 566 yards on 68 plays (8.33 YPP)
Ole Miss: 559 yards on 77 plays (7.26 YPP)
Missisippi State vs #11 Texas A&M (-6) (O/U N/A)
Missisippi St Season Stats
Offensive Yards Per Play: 5.44 (92% of opponents avg allowed)
Offensive Yards Per Point: 16.95
Defensive Yards Per Play: 4.24 (69% of opponents avg)
Defensive Yards Per Point: 10.85
Texas A&M Season Stats
Offensive Yards Per Play: 6.63 (104% of opponents avg allowed)
Offensive Yards Per Point: 13.75
Defensive Yards Per Play: 6.75 (101% of opponents avg)
Defensive Yards Per Point: 11.77
Score Prediction
Mississippi State - 28
Texas A&M - 23
Mississippi State: 479 yards on 81 plays (5.91 YPP)
Texas A&M: 315 yards on 69 plays (4.57 YPP)
#18 Tennessee (-5.5) vs Kentucky (O/U 49)
Tennessee Season Stats
Offensive Yards Per Play: 5.37 (102% of opponents avg allowed)
Offensive Yards Per Point: 13.30
Defensive Yards Per Play: 5.18 (91% of opponents avg)
Defensive Yards Per Point: 13.90
Kentucky Season Stats
Offensive Yards Per Play: 5.10 (76% of opponents avg allowed)
Offensive Yards Per Point: 14.00
Defensive Yards Per Play: 5.42 (84% of opponents avg)
Defensive Yards Per Point: 14.77
Score Prediction
Tennessee - 25
Kentucky - 20
Tennessee: 332 yards on 67 plays (4.95 YPP)
Ole Miss: 279 yards on 68 plays (4.11 YPP)
#2 Alabama (-5) vs #3 Georgia (O/U 55)
Georgia Season Stats
Offensive Yards Per Play: 5.27 (97% of opponents avg allowed)
Offensive Yards Per Point: 13.63
Defensive Yards Per Play: 3.70 (65% of opponents avg)
Defensive Yards Per Point: 19.19
Alabama Season Stats
Offensive Yards Per Play: 8.66 (130% of opponents avg allowed)
Offensive Yards Per Point: 10.99
Defensive Yards Per Play: 6.01 (83% of opponents avg)
Defensive Yards Per Point: 15.59
Score Prediction
Georgia - 29
Alabama - 26
Georgia: 395 yards on 80 plays (4.94 YPP)
Alabama: 399 yards on 65 plays (6.14 YPP)
#10 Florida (-14) vs LSU (O/U 70.5)
Florida Season Stats
Offensive Yards Per Play: 7.61 (109% of opponents avg allowed)
Offensive Yards Per Point: 13.21
Defensive Yards Per Play: 6.32 (95% of opponents avg)
Defensive Yards Per Point: 14.85
LSU Season Stats
Offensive Yards Per Play: 6.34 (112% of opponents avg allowed)
Offensive Yards Per Point: 13.47
Defensive Yards Per Play: 7.00 (161% of opponents avg)
Defensive Yards Per Point: 15.46
Score Prediction
Florida - 41
LSU - 37
Florida: 547 yards on 61 plays (8.97 YPP)
LSU: 496 yards on 76 plays (6.53 YPP)
South Carolina vs #15 Auburn (-3) (O/U 50.5)
South Carolina Season Stats
Offensive Yards Per Play: 5.42 (80% of opponents avg allowed)
Offensive Yards Per Point: 15.77
Defensive Yards Per Play: 5.57 (102% of opponents avg)
Defensive Yards Per Point: 13.04
Auburn Season Stats
Offensive Yards Per Play: 5.22 (117% of opponents avg allowed)
Offensive Yards Per Point: 14.11
Defensive Yards Per Play: 5.66 (115% of opponents avg)
Defensive Yards Per Point: 18.57
Score Prediction
Auburn - 26
South Carolina - 24
Auburn: 366 yards on 63 plays (5.81 YPP)
South Carolina: 384 yards on 73 plays (5.26 YPP)
Arkansas vs Ole Miss (-3.5) (O/U 77)
Arkansas Season Stats
Offensive Yards Per Play: 4.86 (109% of opponents avg allowed)
Offensive Yards Per Point: 14.61
Defensive Yards Per Play: 5.07 (93% of opponents avg)
Defensive Yards Per Point: 15.22
Ole Miss Season Stats
Offensive Yards Per Play: 7.44 (147% of opponents avg allowed)
Offensive Yards Per Point: 14.49
Defensive Yards Per Play: 8.79 (142% of opponents avg)
Defensive Yards Per Point: 12.41
Score Prediction
Arkansas - 38.7
Ole Miss - 38.6
Arkansas: 566 yards on 68 plays (8.33 YPP)
Ole Miss: 559 yards on 77 plays (7.26 YPP)
Missisippi State vs #11 Texas A&M (-6) (O/U N/A)
Missisippi St Season Stats
Offensive Yards Per Play: 5.44 (92% of opponents avg allowed)
Offensive Yards Per Point: 16.95
Defensive Yards Per Play: 4.24 (69% of opponents avg)
Defensive Yards Per Point: 10.85
Texas A&M Season Stats
Offensive Yards Per Play: 6.63 (104% of opponents avg allowed)
Offensive Yards Per Point: 13.75
Defensive Yards Per Play: 6.75 (101% of opponents avg)
Defensive Yards Per Point: 11.77
Score Prediction
Mississippi State - 28
Texas A&M - 23
Mississippi State: 479 yards on 81 plays (5.91 YPP)
Texas A&M: 315 yards on 69 plays (4.57 YPP)
#18 Tennessee (-5.5) vs Kentucky (O/U 49)
Tennessee Season Stats
Offensive Yards Per Play: 5.37 (102% of opponents avg allowed)
Offensive Yards Per Point: 13.30
Defensive Yards Per Play: 5.18 (91% of opponents avg)
Defensive Yards Per Point: 13.90
Kentucky Season Stats
Offensive Yards Per Play: 5.10 (76% of opponents avg allowed)
Offensive Yards Per Point: 14.00
Defensive Yards Per Play: 5.42 (84% of opponents avg)
Defensive Yards Per Point: 14.77
Score Prediction
Tennessee - 25
Kentucky - 20
Tennessee: 332 yards on 67 plays (4.95 YPP)
Ole Miss: 279 yards on 68 plays (4.11 YPP)
This post was edited on 10/11/20 at 8:40 pm
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Posted on 10/11/20 at 3:23 pm to SummerOfGeorge
How does returning production factor into your analysis?
Posted on 10/11/20 at 3:23 pm to TigerLunatik
quote:
How does returning production factor into your analysis?
ZILCH
Posted on 10/11/20 at 3:24 pm to TigerLunatik
quote:
returning production
Careful, LSU fans don’t like those words.
Posted on 10/11/20 at 3:24 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Nice write up. LSU/UF may be even higher scoring than that.
Posted on 10/11/20 at 3:24 pm to diddlydawg7
bfniii will be along shortly to rip ups all new assholes.
Posted on 10/11/20 at 3:25 pm to TigerLunatik
quote:
Nice write up. LSU/UF may be even higher scoring than that.
Clearly, I'm not poking fun as our results from Saturday night speak for themselves, but...........LSU's defense is..........I mean when you start looking at what the teams they've played have done in their other 2 games vs what they did vs LSU.........
It almost doesn't seem possible.
Posted on 10/11/20 at 3:29 pm to TigerLunatik
quote:
bfniii will be along shortly to rip ups all new assholes.
I’m still waiting on apologies from the LSU fanbase. They called me terrible things like “idiot”, “troll”, and “moron”. It became painfully obvious to me that LSU just lost too much to be competitive this year, but they didn’t want to hear it.
I was trying to tell them so the pain wouldn’t be as bad. Three games in, its pretty clear I was correct all along. I’m sure they will be good sports about it and apologize, right?
Posted on 10/11/20 at 3:33 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
LSU's defense is........
arse..... let's call it what it is. Pelini has been a complete failure and I wouldn't have a problem with him being fired immediately.
Posted on 10/11/20 at 3:34 pm to TigerLunatik
quote:
TigerLunatik
Hardman with a rough game today. Only 7 points. I had to pick up Cole Beasley off waivers because Michael Thomas was just ruled out and all my bench WRs have already played
Posted on 10/11/20 at 3:35 pm to diddlydawg7
quote:
its pretty clear I was correct all along
It hasn't been talent so far, it's been coaching. We are just flat out getting outcoached. We've scored more than enough to win all 3 games. The coaching just flat sucks right now.
Posted on 10/11/20 at 3:36 pm to TigerLunatik
quote:
It hasn't been talent so far
You’re right. It’s been experience + coaching. Which was exactly what I said the issue would be.
Posted on 10/11/20 at 3:37 pm to TigerLunatik
And by the way, my “horrible” RBs keep tearing it up for me. Projected to put up 156 points this week and should come out of the weekend 4-1 
Posted on 10/11/20 at 3:39 pm to SummerOfGeorge
I would consider UA/UGA a pick'em
Posted on 10/11/20 at 4:17 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Score Prediction
Georgia - 29
Alabama - 26
I would be shocked but I would also
Posted on 10/11/20 at 4:35 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
10 Florida vs LSU
Could this be the first game where both DCs are fired at halftime?
Posted on 10/11/20 at 5:13 pm to KajunGator
quote:
Could this be the first game where both DCs are fired at halftime?
I can only speak for ours. And yes I sure hope so. I'm done with that fat bastard. How do you hire a guy who acquired the nickname of 3rd and Grantham, prior to being hired by your school?
Posted on 10/11/20 at 5:13 pm to KajunGator
quote:
Could this be the first game where both DCs are fired at halftime?
Please God
Posted on 10/11/20 at 5:18 pm to SummerOfGeorge
sounds about right
Posted on 10/11/20 at 5:20 pm to SummerOfGeorge
No way the LSU gmae is that close. We suck.
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