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SEC Program Rankings Including OU & TX
Posted on 7/26/21 at 10:06 am
Posted on 7/26/21 at 10:06 am
Each year I update my Program rankings metric. Without getting into too much detail, the metric is based upon all-time performance in the Final AP Poll with an extra bonus on AP/Coaches National Championships. It also rewards more recent success with a higher score compared to success from many decades ago.
With that said, I thought it would be a good time to repost these to show where Oklahoma and Texas fit into the mix:
1. Alabama- 1,271
2. Ohio St.- 979
3. Oklahoma- 970
4. Notre Dame- 844
5. USC- 787
6. Michigan- 712
7. Nebraska- 681
8. LSU- 657
9. Texas- 644
10. Florida St.- 585
11. Miami- 582
12. Florida- 581
13. Penn St.- 553
14. Georgia- 503
15. Clemson- 502
16. Tennessee- 499
17. Auburn- 487
18. Michigan St.- 347
19. UCLA- 336
20. Texas A&M- 303
21. Washington- 295
22. Wisconsin- 286
23. Arkansas- 267
24. Oregon- 254
25. TCU- 246
Oklahoma and Texas would enter the conference ranked as the #2 and #4 programs of the new SEC, respectively. Their addition would boost the SEC up to 8 "Elite programs", which I believe are the Top 17 after which there is a significant drop-off in program success.
TRENDS:
Oklahoma is steady... using this metric to go backwards to to the end of each decade since the 1950s, Oklahoma has been ranked between #1 and #4 at the conclusion of each decade. Here was their ranking in each of those years:
1959: #2 (behind Notre Dame)
1969: #3 (behind Notre Dame and Ohio State)
1979: #3 (behind Notre Dame and Alabama)
1989: #2 (behind Notre Dame)
1999: #4 (behind Alabama, Notre Dame, and Nebraska)
2009: #1
2019: #3 (behind Alabama, and Ohio State)
Texas has also been fairly steady... though just a bit lower down:
1959: #11 (behind ND, OK, OSU, MI, Army, TN, MN, MSU, UCLA, and GT)
1969: #5 (behind ND, OSU, OU, and USC)
1979: #6 (behind ND, AL, OU, USC, and OSU)
1989: #8 (behind ND, OU, AL, USC, OSU, NEB, and MI)
1999: #11 (behind AL, ND, NEB, USC, NEB, OSU, USC, PSU, MIA, and TN)
2009: #8 (behind OU, AL, ND, USC, NEB, OSU, and MI)
2019: #9 (behind AL, OSU, OU, ND, USC, MI, NEB, and LSU)
So since the 1950s, Oklahoma has consistently been ranked between #1 and #4 while Texas has been consistently ranked #5 through #11.
With that said, I thought it would be a good time to repost these to show where Oklahoma and Texas fit into the mix:
1. Alabama- 1,271
2. Ohio St.- 979
3. Oklahoma- 970
4. Notre Dame- 844
5. USC- 787
6. Michigan- 712
7. Nebraska- 681
8. LSU- 657
9. Texas- 644
10. Florida St.- 585
11. Miami- 582
12. Florida- 581
13. Penn St.- 553
14. Georgia- 503
15. Clemson- 502
16. Tennessee- 499
17. Auburn- 487
18. Michigan St.- 347
19. UCLA- 336
20. Texas A&M- 303
21. Washington- 295
22. Wisconsin- 286
23. Arkansas- 267
24. Oregon- 254
25. TCU- 246
Oklahoma and Texas would enter the conference ranked as the #2 and #4 programs of the new SEC, respectively. Their addition would boost the SEC up to 8 "Elite programs", which I believe are the Top 17 after which there is a significant drop-off in program success.
TRENDS:
Oklahoma is steady... using this metric to go backwards to to the end of each decade since the 1950s, Oklahoma has been ranked between #1 and #4 at the conclusion of each decade. Here was their ranking in each of those years:
1959: #2 (behind Notre Dame)
1969: #3 (behind Notre Dame and Ohio State)
1979: #3 (behind Notre Dame and Alabama)
1989: #2 (behind Notre Dame)
1999: #4 (behind Alabama, Notre Dame, and Nebraska)
2009: #1
2019: #3 (behind Alabama, and Ohio State)
Texas has also been fairly steady... though just a bit lower down:
1959: #11 (behind ND, OK, OSU, MI, Army, TN, MN, MSU, UCLA, and GT)
1969: #5 (behind ND, OSU, OU, and USC)
1979: #6 (behind ND, AL, OU, USC, and OSU)
1989: #8 (behind ND, OU, AL, USC, OSU, NEB, and MI)
1999: #11 (behind AL, ND, NEB, USC, NEB, OSU, USC, PSU, MIA, and TN)
2009: #8 (behind OU, AL, ND, USC, NEB, OSU, and MI)
2019: #9 (behind AL, OSU, OU, ND, USC, MI, NEB, and LSU)
So since the 1950s, Oklahoma has consistently been ranked between #1 and #4 while Texas has been consistently ranked #5 through #11.
Posted on 7/26/21 at 10:13 am to BHMKyle
Looks about right.
I expect Nebraska to free fall down that list in the coming decades
I expect Nebraska to free fall down that list in the coming decades
This post was edited on 7/26/21 at 10:14 am
Posted on 7/26/21 at 10:20 am to BHMKyle
My takeaways...
Alabama is ridiculous, and will remain #1 through all of our lifetimes.
Texas will probably remain stagnant, while I can LSU overtaking Nebraska and Michigan in the near future. And unless USC rights the ship, them too eventually.
Florida will be in the top-10 in the very near future.
Georgia might lose a spot to Clemson before they move up.
I'm surprised Auburn is still behind Tennessee.
Alabama is ridiculous, and will remain #1 through all of our lifetimes.
Texas will probably remain stagnant, while I can LSU overtaking Nebraska and Michigan in the near future. And unless USC rights the ship, them too eventually.
Florida will be in the top-10 in the very near future.
Georgia might lose a spot to Clemson before they move up.
I'm surprised Auburn is still behind Tennessee.
Posted on 7/26/21 at 10:28 am to Ostrich
quote:
Looks about right.
I expect Nebraska to free fall down that list in the coming decades
The way the metric is calculated is a team gets 1 and 24 points for a #2 through #25 finish in the AP poll for each season going back to when the AP Poll originated in 1936. So for example, a #2 finish is rewarded 24 points, a #3 finish is rewarded 23 points, etc. all the way down to a #25 finish receiving 1 point.
National Championships are rewarded 75 points, and this does include split titles back in the day so both teams that shared a major poll title receive 75 points.
Points accumulated in the previous 10 years receive full credit with no deductions.
Points accumulated 51 years ago or further back receive only half credit.
Points accumulated between 11 and 50 years ago receive slight deductions, with each year reducing a bit further depending on how long ago.
So yes, all AP accomplishments between 1970 and 2008 will continue to receive an increasing deduction as each year passes... and this significantly hurts a program like Nebraska who had such success during those periods.
Nebraska had 828 points in this metric in 1999... they now have just 681, so those deductions are really eating into their score.
Just between 2019 and 2020, their score went from 691 to 681, so until Nebraska begins adding more point to offset their deductions, yes they'll continue to free fall.
Posted on 7/26/21 at 10:28 am to Captain Crown
because 70 years back is very relevant right?
Posted on 7/26/21 at 10:31 am to BHMKyle
Looks like we have a new Big 6...
Posted on 7/26/21 at 10:37 am to EasterEgg
quote:
Alabama is ridiculous, and will remain #1 through all of our lifetimes.
Very true.
quote:
Texas will probably remain stagnant
Texas had 687 points in 2009 and have fallen down to 644 points thanks to their past success being hit with deductions for slipping further back into the past.... they aren't adding enough new points to offset those deductions. That's what enabled LSU to pass them after their title in 2019.
The good news for the Longhorns is that the two teams closest to them.... Florida State and Miami... aren't really doing much right now to surge ahead.
quote:
I can LSU overtaking Nebraska and Michigan in the near future.
A Top 10 finish next year would likely be enough to move LSU ahead of Nebraska. LSU should pass the Huskers within 2-3 years at most. Michigan could easily be passed in 5-7 years unless they start winning.
quote:
And unless USC rights the ship, them too eventually.
This could take a decade or more. They have quite a high score.
quote:
Florida will be in the top-10 in the very near future.
Yeah. By the end of this next season in all likelihood.
quote:
Georgia might lose a spot to Clemson before they move up.
Georgia and Clemson both moved ahead of Auburn and Tennessee just last season. Yes, Clemson with their recent titles is gaining ground fast.
quote:
I'm surprised Auburn is still behind Tennessee.
Tennessee was passed by both Florida State and LSU during the 2000s. They were passed by Georgia and Clemson after 2019. And Auburn is due to pass them by in the next few years based on recent history.
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