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SEC Bubble Watch through 2/27 games
Posted on 2/27/20 at 12:49 am
Posted on 2/27/20 at 12:49 am
SEC
Locks: Auburn, Kentucky
Auburn and Kentucky are playing for top 4 seeds at this point. Recent Auburn results may drop Auburn to a 5 seed if this keeps up but I think they will stay at 4. I think Kentucky gets to a 3 seed. The slow start will prevent them from a 1-2 seed.
Should be in
LSU Tigers
Florida Gators
At this point it seems LSU and Florida are both playing for higher seeding. I think both are off of the bubble for now. LSU has been dropping games lately so if that continues they will move back to the bubble but I do not think they will. Florida has been playing great late this season and could upset Kentucky late in the season to advance their seeding even further.
Work to do
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Arkansas Razorbacks
I am going to hold right here because at this point, these are the only two SEC Teams I see on the actual bubble right now. Arkansas has a high NET despite a pretty meh conference record but they are also 0-2 vs fellow bubble SEC Team Mississippi State and I suspect if it comes down to these 2, MSU gets the edge. Speaking of MSU, State has to win out in the regular season. None of these losses can keep State in the picture, @ Missouri, @South Carolina, Mississippi. Arkansas closes with @ Georgia, vs LSU, and @ Texas A&M. I suspect Arkansas is in the same boat here with the limited opportunities they have left.
To be frank I am not sure winning out is good enough for either Arkansas or MSU. But I think that and maybe a win or two in the SECT will be good enough for a bid. But perhaps winning out will be good enough depending on the landscape.
Alabama Crimson Tide
South Carolina Gamecocks
Alabama and South Carolina play on Saturday. If either of these teams truly are still on the bubble, Saturday officially eliminates one of these teams. But neither of these teams resumes nor their end of season finishes look strong enough to be in the current field. I am not sure either could get in without winning the SECT honestly.
Alabama has the advantage of a better NET, but both of their Q1 wins are high 20s home wins and it appears one of them(LSU) is about to get out of the top 30 leaving them with 1. In fact Auburn is close to being out of the top 30 as well.
South Carolina has the advantage of a win over Kentucky. Which Auburn is the only other SEC team can say that. And a decent NC road win at Virginia(which looked much much better in December) But losses vs Stetson, Boston University, and other SEC teams like Ole Miss make me think this team is nowhere near the bubble.
If you had me to pick right now
I think the SEC only gets 4 teams in because I do not believe MSU or Arkansas are consistent enough to win down the stretch like they need to. But if the SEC does get a 5th team, expect it to come down to these two teams.
Locks: Auburn, Kentucky
Auburn and Kentucky are playing for top 4 seeds at this point. Recent Auburn results may drop Auburn to a 5 seed if this keeps up but I think they will stay at 4. I think Kentucky gets to a 3 seed. The slow start will prevent them from a 1-2 seed.
Should be in
LSU Tigers
quote:
LSU was 45-11 from the beginning of the 2018-19 season through the end of January 2020, giving the program arguably its best stretch of winning basketball over more than one season in four decades. The Tigers are just 2-5 since, however, because this defense has collapsed. Over its past seven games, Will Wade's team has allowed a rather incredible 1.19 points per possession. Those seven opponents have converted 41% of their 3-point attempts and they've turned the ball over even more infrequently than LSU has. (Which is extremely difficult to accomplish.) The Tigers' anticipated seed is now down to the No. 8 line.
Florida Gators
quote:
It's been a good February for the Gators. At the beginning of the month, Mike White's team was 12-8 and being written off as a tournament afterthought. Now Florida is 18-10 and being projected as a No. 9 seed. Keyontae Johnson posted a 25-11 double-double in UF's 81-66 win over LSU in Gainesville, and the key number there might be the 11. The Tigers are one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the nation, but against the Gators they were able to pull down just nine misses out of 36 chances. Holding opponents to one shot is pretty much the strength of this good but not great defense. Most days "good" will be good enough on D, because this has been the most accurate shooting offense in SEC play.
At this point it seems LSU and Florida are both playing for higher seeding. I think both are off of the bubble for now. LSU has been dropping games lately so if that continues they will move back to the bubble but I do not think they will. Florida has been playing great late this season and could upset Kentucky late in the season to advance their seeding even further.
Work to do
Mississippi State Bulldogs
quote:
Reasonable bracket forecasters can disagree on whether Mississippi State was perched just outside the tournament field or far outside it in advance of the game at home against Alabama. The only consensus there was that the Bulldogs were indeed outside the field. That key word still applies to Ben Howland's Bulldogs, but they're in a little better position than they were before. MSU emerged with an 80-73 victory over the Crimson Tide thanks in no small part to a 21-12 double-double from Reggie Perry. To repeat some sentiments the Watch has already voiced: Mississippi State, with an 18-10 record and a NET ranking in the 50s, might well still have work to do at the SEC tournament.
Arkansas Razorbacks
quote:
The easy victory that Arkansas recorded at home over Tennessee marked the first time the Razorbacks had won a game by at least 15 points since Eric Musselman's team was 14-2. Now the Hogs are 18-10 and scratching for a tournament berth. They're not there yet, but a NET ranking in the 40s, the true road win at Indiana and, not least, the existence of Mason Jones (who scored 37 against the Volunteers) all continue to give Arkansas a shot. Isaiah Joe missed five games, a stretch during which his team was 0-5. Since his return, the Hogs have notched wins against Missouri and the Volunteers. If they can pull it off, a victory at Georgia would give the Razorbacks a fair degree of momentum heading into a home game against LSU.
I am going to hold right here because at this point, these are the only two SEC Teams I see on the actual bubble right now. Arkansas has a high NET despite a pretty meh conference record but they are also 0-2 vs fellow bubble SEC Team Mississippi State and I suspect if it comes down to these 2, MSU gets the edge. Speaking of MSU, State has to win out in the regular season. None of these losses can keep State in the picture, @ Missouri, @South Carolina, Mississippi. Arkansas closes with @ Georgia, vs LSU, and @ Texas A&M. I suspect Arkansas is in the same boat here with the limited opportunities they have left.
To be frank I am not sure winning out is good enough for either Arkansas or MSU. But I think that and maybe a win or two in the SECT will be good enough for a bid. But perhaps winning out will be good enough depending on the landscape.
Alabama Crimson Tide
quote:
Popular "Next Four Out" member Alabama is reaching the point where its very nice top-40 NET ranking won't help anymore. Truth be told, Nate Oats' team is also likely to see its ranking drop below that round number, so the Watch might be onto a chicken-and-egg thing here. Anyway, with the seven-point loss at Mississippi State, the Crimson Tide have dropped six of their past nine and are at 15-13. One piece of good news for Oats, at least, is that the remaining schedule is relatively accommodating, with home games against South Carolina and Vanderbilt, and a visit to Missouri.
South Carolina Gamecocks
quote:
The Watch doesn't wish to raise heretical bubble thoughts, but was the outcome of a home game against Georgia going to move the needle much in either direction, win or lose, for South Carolina? As it happens, the Gamecocks won in overtime despite 36 points from the Bulldogs' Anthony Edwards. The game was classed in advance as a must-win for Frank Martin's team. Well, maybe. Or perhaps South Carolina is so far away from the 36th at-large bid right now that what we really mean when we say it is on the bubble is something more like: "If the Gamecocks beat multiple at-large recipients at the SEC tournament only to lose in the title game, they might get a bid despite the current 60-something NET ranking." Either way, Martin's guys are 17-11, still alive and preparing for a game at Alabama.
Alabama and South Carolina play on Saturday. If either of these teams truly are still on the bubble, Saturday officially eliminates one of these teams. But neither of these teams resumes nor their end of season finishes look strong enough to be in the current field. I am not sure either could get in without winning the SECT honestly.
Alabama has the advantage of a better NET, but both of their Q1 wins are high 20s home wins and it appears one of them(LSU) is about to get out of the top 30 leaving them with 1. In fact Auburn is close to being out of the top 30 as well.
South Carolina has the advantage of a win over Kentucky. Which Auburn is the only other SEC team can say that. And a decent NC road win at Virginia(which looked much much better in December) But losses vs Stetson, Boston University, and other SEC teams like Ole Miss make me think this team is nowhere near the bubble.
If you had me to pick right now
I think the SEC only gets 4 teams in because I do not believe MSU or Arkansas are consistent enough to win down the stretch like they need to. But if the SEC does get a 5th team, expect it to come down to these two teams.
Posted on 2/27/20 at 12:59 am to The Winner
Arkansas is 18-5 with Isaiah Joe. They also won the big 12 challenge game and @GT and @Indiana. If they win out, they are in. Hell, they are in if they hit 21 wins. People want Mason Jones in the Tournament, too, and that helps. The kid has scored over 30 NINE times.
Posted on 2/27/20 at 1:13 am to The Winner
quote:
A1abana Crimson Tide
The 8th place team - in a pretty meh conference - ain’t on the bubble.
Posted on 2/27/20 at 5:41 am to The Winner
Kentucky will continue to win, but somehow continue to drop in seeding.
Posted on 2/27/20 at 6:24 am to kywildcatfanone
I think UF ends up with a 7 seed. They've been playing great lately, but no one in the country will notice, and plus the thought on the SEC, is that it is down this year.
Posted on 2/27/20 at 8:17 am to The Winner
quote:And have literally seen their NET ranking climb.
the Crimson Tide have dropped six of their past nine
Posted on 2/27/20 at 8:47 am to boXerrumble
quote:
I think UF ends up with a 7 seed. They've been playing great lately, but no one in the country will notice, and plus the thought on the SEC, is that it is down this year.
I tend to agree. We're starting to figure things out, wouldn't surprise me if we play our way to a much better seed over the final stretch.
Posted on 2/27/20 at 8:49 am to WilliamTaylor21
quote:
The 8th place team - in a pretty meh conference - ain’t on the bubble.
Unfortunately I agree
Posted on 2/27/20 at 8:51 am to The Winner
I don't think SC gets in. Some of our losses this year have just been unacceptable.
Posted on 2/27/20 at 9:03 am to The Winner
LINK
Arkansas is currently 14 spots higher in NET(40 vs 54).
If we get to 20 wins, 21 with a SEC tourney win, we are in.
Arkansas is currently 14 spots higher in NET(40 vs 54).
If we get to 20 wins, 21 with a SEC tourney win, we are in.
Posted on 2/27/20 at 9:12 am to The Winner
I think we've got to win out and win 2 in the tourney. And pray that all the mid-major regular season conf champs win their tournaments.
Posted on 2/27/20 at 9:18 am to gamecockman12
If arkansas wins the next three then I don't see why they aren't in. Two of those games are going to be on the road and if they win those two,then they will have six road wins for the year.They had done well in nonconference games with wins at Indiana and Georgia tech. They also had wins against some mid majors that are going to earn a bid as tournament champs or at least as an at large bid. Despite having the five game losing streak, they didn't get off the bubble because of it's strong nonconference schedule.
Some SEC teams that are on the bubble are going to be left out because they didn't take care of business in the nonconference schedule. Losing to teams you are suppose to beat will bite you in the arse when are on the bubble down the stretch. Some of the bubble teams are going to have to win the SEC tournament.
Some SEC teams that are on the bubble are going to be left out because they didn't take care of business in the nonconference schedule. Losing to teams you are suppose to beat will bite you in the arse when are on the bubble down the stretch. Some of the bubble teams are going to have to win the SEC tournament.
This post was edited on 2/27/20 at 9:20 am
Posted on 2/27/20 at 11:50 am to The Winner
Dont tell fricking Frank Martin that. He thinks our resume is amazing and that every team has embarrassing losses like Stetson and BU....
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