re: SEC Basketball

quote:

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Even if he drops in the lottery, it's still guaranteed money and he'll simply draw a paycheck while he rehabs.

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Belle, the question is if he drops below #5. Here is some data over 20 years on value of position :

Average Career Stats by draft pick number
Pick # Gms Min Pts Reb Ast Rtg Star Solid RoleP DeepB Bust DNP
1 20 555 32.9 16.6 7.8 2.7 27.0 70% 25% 5%
2 20 583 29.6 12.9 5.9 2.8 21.6 60% 25% 15%
3 20 535 31.9 15.2 5.1 3.5 23.8 85% 10% 5%
4 20 585 30.5 13.7 5.5 3.1 22.2 60% 30% 10%
5 20 552 28.7 13.4 4.9 2.7 21.1 60% 15% 10% 15%
6 20 406 25.4 10.2 4.6 1.7 16.5 25% 30% 30% 15%
7 20 483 26.8 10.9 4.3 2.6 17.8 30% 40% 25% 5%
8 20 397 22.9 9.3 3.9 1.9 15.2 35% 15% 15% 35%
9 20 460 23.1 10.2 4.9 1.6 16.6 30% 10% 35% 20% 5%
10 20 497 24.6 10.2 4.4 2.2 16.7 35% 25% 25% 10% 5%

Look at how rapidly the drop goes from #5 to #6 and lower. If I could not look Noel in the eye and say with 100% certainty he would go in the first 5 then I would tell him to stay and assure a probable #1 pick next year. If you look at the data it suggests that the #1 and #3 spots are the best place to be picked and have the greatest long term effect on lifetime earnings. The 2 best chances of making the best money possible is your initial draft position and your first non draft contract.

Here is the numbers for this daft :

1 $4,436,900 $4,636,600 $4,836,300 26.10% 30.00%
2 $3,969,800 $4,148,500 $4,327,100 26.20% 30.50%
3 $3,565,000 $3,725,400 $3,885,800 26.40% 31.20%
4 $3,214,200 $3,358,800 $3,503,500 26.50% 31.90%
5 $2,910,600 $3,041,600 $3,172,600 26.70% 32.60%
6 $2,643,600 $2,762,600 $2,881,500 26.80% 33.40%
7 $2,413,300 $2,521,900 $2,630,500 27.00% 34.10%
8 $2,210,900 $2,310,400 $2,409,800 27.20% 34.80%
9 $2,032,300 $2,123,800 $2,215,200 27.40% 35.50%
10 $1,930,600 $2,017,500 $2,104,300 27.50% 36.20%

Lets say Noel goes #6 this year instead of #1 next year. Can you really look a kid in the eye and say he should walk away from an extra 2 million for the extra year he would remain out of the draft?