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SEC Basketball So Far
Posted on 12/2/20 at 4:04 pm
Posted on 12/2/20 at 4:04 pm
Crazy as it may seem, despite the fact we're only one week into Basketball season, already over 20% of the league's OOC games have been played.
So far, the results have been mixed. The good news is there have been zero horrific losses. The bad news is that there have also been zero big wins.
AVOIDING BAD LOSSES
With Florida's closer-than-it-should-have-been WIN over Army, the league escaped its first horrific loss. I define a "Horrific" loss as one against an opponent ranked #151 or worse in KenPom. So far the SEC as a whole is a perfect 11-0 against such opponents. This is big, because last season there were several horrific losses by a handful of teams including Kentucky.
NO BIG WINS
The bad news is that the SEC still does not have a great OOC win. I would define a "Great" Win over a team ranked between #1 and #50 in KenPom. So far, the conference is 0-5 against these opponents.
Auburn's loss to #1 Gonzaga... Mississippi State's loss to #28 Clemson... and Bama's loss to #35 Stanford were all not particularly close.
As a league, we came up just short in Kentucky's loss to #5 Kansas and LSU's loss to #43 St. Louis. Those are two games that would have been huge for the league had they gone the opposite way.
Missouri's game tonight against #21 Oregon is the next chance for the SEC to get its first big OOC win.
SPLITTING THE OTHERS
In other games... ones that won't necessarily help the conference if its won or hurt the league if its lost... the SEC is currently 4-4
So far the biggest win in the conference is South Carolina's win over #98 Tulsa
Bama's game tonight against Providence is a great chance for what appears to be a middle-of-the-pack SEC team to come away with a solid OOC win. Currently Bama sits at #58 and Providence is #61. It wouldn't count as a "Great" win but it would be a solid win nonetheless.
Conclusion
Sometimes, as long as you can avoid disaster, that actually works out to be enough to give the league credit when it comes to comparing resumes in March. However, we're running out of realistic chances to score big wins.
There are 15 OOC games left in which the opponent is currently in the KenPom Top 50. While that does represent 15 chances to nab a huge win, some of those chances seem highly unlikely. For instance, Auburn plays #2 Baylor in the Big 12 Challenge. That's probably the least likely for the SEC to win of those 14, but there are several others that seem almost just as unlikely.
Meanwhile, there are 31 games left against OOC opponents ranked #200 or worse.... some of those to be played by the SEC's lesser talented teams.
I guess at this point, the jury is still out. I foresee around 4-5 SEC teams making the Tournament. Not a great year, but it could be worse.
So far, the results have been mixed. The good news is there have been zero horrific losses. The bad news is that there have also been zero big wins.
AVOIDING BAD LOSSES
With Florida's closer-than-it-should-have-been WIN over Army, the league escaped its first horrific loss. I define a "Horrific" loss as one against an opponent ranked #151 or worse in KenPom. So far the SEC as a whole is a perfect 11-0 against such opponents. This is big, because last season there were several horrific losses by a handful of teams including Kentucky.
NO BIG WINS
The bad news is that the SEC still does not have a great OOC win. I would define a "Great" Win over a team ranked between #1 and #50 in KenPom. So far, the conference is 0-5 against these opponents.
Auburn's loss to #1 Gonzaga... Mississippi State's loss to #28 Clemson... and Bama's loss to #35 Stanford were all not particularly close.
As a league, we came up just short in Kentucky's loss to #5 Kansas and LSU's loss to #43 St. Louis. Those are two games that would have been huge for the league had they gone the opposite way.
Missouri's game tonight against #21 Oregon is the next chance for the SEC to get its first big OOC win.
SPLITTING THE OTHERS
In other games... ones that won't necessarily help the conference if its won or hurt the league if its lost... the SEC is currently 4-4
So far the biggest win in the conference is South Carolina's win over #98 Tulsa
Bama's game tonight against Providence is a great chance for what appears to be a middle-of-the-pack SEC team to come away with a solid OOC win. Currently Bama sits at #58 and Providence is #61. It wouldn't count as a "Great" win but it would be a solid win nonetheless.
Conclusion
Sometimes, as long as you can avoid disaster, that actually works out to be enough to give the league credit when it comes to comparing resumes in March. However, we're running out of realistic chances to score big wins.
There are 15 OOC games left in which the opponent is currently in the KenPom Top 50. While that does represent 15 chances to nab a huge win, some of those chances seem highly unlikely. For instance, Auburn plays #2 Baylor in the Big 12 Challenge. That's probably the least likely for the SEC to win of those 14, but there are several others that seem almost just as unlikely.
Meanwhile, there are 31 games left against OOC opponents ranked #200 or worse.... some of those to be played by the SEC's lesser talented teams.
I guess at this point, the jury is still out. I foresee around 4-5 SEC teams making the Tournament. Not a great year, but it could be worse.
This post was edited on 12/2/20 at 4:07 pm
Posted on 12/2/20 at 4:05 pm to BHMKyle
It's terrible. The league's best wins so far are St Joes, UNLV, and Tulsa. Gross.
This post was edited on 12/2/20 at 4:06 pm
Posted on 12/2/20 at 4:07 pm to diddlydawg7
quote:
Thanks Alabama
You are welcome - we worked hard to get the league's 3rd best win of the season against the Runnin' Rebs last night.
Posted on 12/2/20 at 4:10 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
You are welcome - we worked hard to get the league's 3rd best win of the season against the Runnin' Rebs last night.
If you beat Stanford you’d be #1.
Unfortunately for you guys, Georgia will hold that title by the end of the night.
Just wait, North Georgia won’t know what hit them in two hours
Posted on 12/2/20 at 4:11 pm to diddlydawg7
quote:
Just wait, North Georgia won’t know what hit them in two hours
After Navy beat Georgetown and Army took Florida to the wire I'd be on upset alert - the military schools are on the warpath (pun intended)
Posted on 12/2/20 at 4:11 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
I guess at this point, the jury is still out. I foresee around 4-5 SEC teams making the Tournament. Not a great year, but it could be worse.
It sucks because it happened to everyone to a certain degree but so many good schedules got destroyed.
Posted on 12/2/20 at 4:14 pm to rockiee
quote:
It sucks because it happened to everyone to a certain degree but so many good schedules got destroyed.
If you want to swap schedules I think we'd be happy to do so. That whole "play all the good teams" thing hasn't really worked out for us the last 5-6 years
Posted on 12/2/20 at 4:16 pm to SummerOfGeorge
That's one thing that Wade is really good at. Manipulation of the schedule to get the highest possible net while playing the most winnable games. We at least get one more year of it.
Posted on 12/2/20 at 4:17 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Auburn is so young an inexperienced, you will not see many, if any, good wins from them. Gonzaga gave them a lesson in how the game should be played -- as they will many teams -- and the game against UCF took basketball to a new low.
They'll get better and they have some raw talent, but there won't be many wins this year.
They'll get better and they have some raw talent, but there won't be many wins this year.
Posted on 12/2/20 at 4:31 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
St. Louis
Saint* Louis, show some respect.
Posted on 12/2/20 at 4:53 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
It's terrible. The league's best wins so far are St Joes, UNLV, and Tulsa. Gross.
Yes but it could be way worse. I think we had 3 or 4 losses as a league last season against opponents ranked #250 or worse. The good news is there have so far not been any bad losses like that.
Posted on 12/2/20 at 6:45 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
So far the biggest win in the conference is South Carolina's win over #98 Tulsa
You're welcome
Posted on 12/2/20 at 7:40 pm to BHMKyle
Bama currently up 23 with 10 minutes left
This post was edited on 12/2/20 at 7:42 pm
Posted on 12/2/20 at 7:41 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Bama currently up 21 with 10 minutes left
Georgia up 25.
Greatest PG of all time Sahvir Wheeler with 14 points and 10 assists
Posted on 12/2/20 at 8:03 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
Bama's game tonight against Providence is a great chance for what appears to be a middle-of-the-pack SEC team to come away with a solid OOC win. Currently Bama sits at #58 and Providence is #61. It wouldn't count as a "Great" win but it would be a solid win nonetheless.
Posted on 12/2/20 at 8:54 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Imagine bragging about winning when you’re not even undefeated
Posted on 12/2/20 at 8:55 pm to diddlydawg7
Who you boys got next diddly? Young Harris?
Posted on 12/2/20 at 8:56 pm to BHMKyle
We got blown out by Liberty where are they in Kenpom?
Posted on 12/2/20 at 8:57 pm to SCgamecock2988
quote:
We got blown out by Liberty where are they in Kenpom?
God-tier
This post was edited on 12/2/20 at 8:58 pm
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