Started By
Message
S&P+ 2019 Projections SEC : Overall, Offense, Defense
Posted on 7/9/19 at 2:25 pm
Posted on 7/9/19 at 2:25 pm
Bill Connelly, the S&P+ guy, recently left SB Nation for ESPN. See below for the link to all the team spreadsheets.
2019 CFB Preview Data : S&P+
Projected wins in parentheses.
Overall (SEC Avg : #19.7)
#1 - Alabama (10.7)
#2 - Georgia (10.1)
#4 - LSU (8.9)
#6 - Florida (8.7)
#8 - Auburn (7.8)
#10 - Mississippi St (8.4)
#13 - Texas A&M (6.9)
#16 - Missouri (8.1)
#18 - South Carolina (5.9)
#21 - Tennessee (6.5)
#37 - Kentucky (6.1)
#39 - Ole Miss (5.4)
#48 - Arkansas (5.5)
#53 - Vanderbilt (4.9)
Offense (SEC Avg : #20.9)
#2 - Alabama
#4 - Georgia
#8 - Florida
#9 - Texas A&M
#12 - Missouri
#13 - Tennessee
#15 - LSU
#16 - South Carolina
#21 - Ole Miss
#22 - Vanderbilt
#24 - Auburn
#32 - Mississippi St
#52 - Arkansas
#63 - Kentucky
Defense (SEC Avg : #30.0)
#1 - LSU
#2 - Mississippi St
#6 - Georgia
#7 - Auburn
#10 - Alabama
#11 - Florida
#27 - Kentucky
#29 - Missouri
#32 - Texas A&M
#36 - South Carolina
#46 - Arkansas
#49 - Tennessee
#73 - Ole Miss
#91 - Vanderbilt
2019 CFB Preview Data : S&P+
Projected wins in parentheses.
Overall (SEC Avg : #19.7)
#1 - Alabama (10.7)
#2 - Georgia (10.1)
#4 - LSU (8.9)
#6 - Florida (8.7)
#8 - Auburn (7.8)
#10 - Mississippi St (8.4)
#13 - Texas A&M (6.9)
#16 - Missouri (8.1)
#18 - South Carolina (5.9)
#21 - Tennessee (6.5)
#37 - Kentucky (6.1)
#39 - Ole Miss (5.4)
#48 - Arkansas (5.5)
#53 - Vanderbilt (4.9)
Offense (SEC Avg : #20.9)
#2 - Alabama
#4 - Georgia
#8 - Florida
#9 - Texas A&M
#12 - Missouri
#13 - Tennessee
#15 - LSU
#16 - South Carolina
#21 - Ole Miss
#22 - Vanderbilt
#24 - Auburn
#32 - Mississippi St
#52 - Arkansas
#63 - Kentucky
Defense (SEC Avg : #30.0)
#1 - LSU
#2 - Mississippi St
#6 - Georgia
#7 - Auburn
#10 - Alabama
#11 - Florida
#27 - Kentucky
#29 - Missouri
#32 - Texas A&M
#36 - South Carolina
#46 - Arkansas
#49 - Tennessee
#73 - Ole Miss
#91 - Vanderbilt
This post was edited on 7/9/19 at 2:34 pm
15
Posted on 7/9/19 at 2:28 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
#10 - Mississippi St (8.4)
quote:
#13 - Texas A&M (6.9)
Posted on 7/9/19 at 2:29 pm to SummerOfGeorge
i just cant buy into the tenny hype.
Posted on 7/9/19 at 2:30 pm to BhamBlazeDog
quote:
BhamBlazeDog
#13 Texas A&M vs #10 Mississippi State
Projected Margin : Mississippi State by 0.2, 50% chance to win
Posted on 7/9/19 at 2:31 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Projected Margin : Mississippi State by 0.2, 50% chance to win
You're always the stats guru. I smell 4 in a row.
Posted on 7/9/19 at 2:32 pm to mizslu314
quote:
i just cant buy into the tenny hype.
Not much hype there, really. Per S&P+
Probable Wins (5)
Georgia State (96%)
BYU (71%)
Chattanooga (98%)
UAB (93%)
Vanderbilt (72%)
Toss Ups (2)
South Carolina (51%)
@ Kentucky (54%)
Probable Losses (5)
@ Florida (21%)
Georgia (19%)
Mississippi St (37%)
@ Alabama (7%)
@ Missouri (34%)
So, basically 5-5 and the 2 games vs South Carolina and @ Kentucky determine whether they go 5-7/6-6/7-5.
This post was edited on 7/9/19 at 2:33 pm
Posted on 7/9/19 at 2:33 pm to SummerOfGeorge
ship
Posted on 7/9/19 at 2:35 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Offense (SEC Avg : #20.9)
quote:
Defense (SEC Avg : #30.0)
Strange seeing the SEC offenses more highly regarded than the defenses (on average). Some of that is a Ole Miss and Vandy really dragging down the defensive average. But still that's 11 offenses rated in the top 25 compared to only 6 defenses.
Posted on 7/9/19 at 2:35 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Defense (SEC Avg : #30.0)
#2 - Mississippi St
This looks questionable to me based on how much they lost.
Posted on 7/9/19 at 2:36 pm to SummerOfGeorge
LSU Schedule Breakdown
Probable Wins (9)
#81 Georgia Southern (96%)
@ #35 Texas (80%) (S&P+ thinks Texas is a fraud)
UR Northwestern St (100%)
@ #53 Vanderbilt (85%)
#42 Utah State (88%)
#8 Auburn (63%)
#13 Texas A&M (71%)
Toss Ups (2)
#6 Florida (58%)
@ #10 Mississippi St (54%)
Probable Loss (1)
@ #1 Alabama (24%)
Probable Wins (9)
#81 Georgia Southern (96%)
@ #35 Texas (80%) (S&P+ thinks Texas is a fraud)
UR Northwestern St (100%)
@ #53 Vanderbilt (85%)
#42 Utah State (88%)
#8 Auburn (63%)
#13 Texas A&M (71%)
Toss Ups (2)
#6 Florida (58%)
@ #10 Mississippi St (54%)
Probable Loss (1)
@ #1 Alabama (24%)
Posted on 7/9/19 at 2:37 pm to Farmer1906
quote:
This looks questionable to me based on how much they lost.
Yeah, of all the stuff on this list that is the one that stuck out to me. I don't quite get it - though I do think State returns a really good group in the back 7. A top 15 or even bottom of the Top 10 ranking and I would get it, but #2 seems extreme.
Posted on 7/9/19 at 2:37 pm to SummerOfGeorge
I was talking about the 21st ranking
Posted on 7/9/19 at 2:37 pm to SummerOfGeorge
we should be pretty good, I could see 11-1, 10-2 for sure
Posted on 7/9/19 at 2:38 pm to mizslu314
quote:
I was talking about the 21st ranking
Well it isn't saying they'll be ranked #21 because that isn't how rankings work, it's just saying the metrics say they are the #21 best team in college football. Not sure if I completely buy that, but I do buy the breakdown of the schedule and win/loss expectations.
Posted on 7/9/19 at 2:39 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Well it isn't saying they'll be ranked #21 because that isn't how rankings work, it's just saying the metrics say they are the #21 best team in college football. Not sure if I completely buy that, but I do buy the breakdown of the schedule and win/loss expectations.
either way no matter how you slice it im saying the 21 is too high if you ask me.
Posted on 7/9/19 at 2:43 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Alabama & Auburn Schedule Breakdowns
ALABAMA
Probable Wins (12)
#65 Duke (97%)
#121 NMSU (100%)
@ #18 South Carolina (85%)
#74 Southern Miss (99%)
#39 Ole Miss (96%)
@ #13 Texas A&M (79%)
#21 Tennessee (93%)
#48 Arkansas (97%)
#4 LSU (76%)
@ #10 Mississippi St (75%)
UR Western Carolina (100%)
@ #8 Auburn (73%)
Toss Ups (0)
Probable Loss (0)
AUBURN
Probable Wins (6)
#20 Oregon (69%)
#98 Tulane (97%)
#111 Kent St (99%)
@ #48 Arkansas (79%)
#39 Ole Miss (83%)
UR Samford (100%)
Toss Ups (3)
@ #13 Texas A&M (53%)
#10 Mississippi St (58%)
@ #6 Florida (40%)
Probable Loss (3)
@ #4 LSU (37%)
#2 Georgia (37%)
#1 Alabama (27%)
ALABAMA
Probable Wins (12)
#65 Duke (97%)
#121 NMSU (100%)
@ #18 South Carolina (85%)
#74 Southern Miss (99%)
#39 Ole Miss (96%)
@ #13 Texas A&M (79%)
#21 Tennessee (93%)
#48 Arkansas (97%)
#4 LSU (76%)
@ #10 Mississippi St (75%)
UR Western Carolina (100%)
@ #8 Auburn (73%)
Toss Ups (0)
Probable Loss (0)
AUBURN
Probable Wins (6)
#20 Oregon (69%)
#98 Tulane (97%)
#111 Kent St (99%)
@ #48 Arkansas (79%)
#39 Ole Miss (83%)
UR Samford (100%)
Toss Ups (3)
@ #13 Texas A&M (53%)
#10 Mississippi St (58%)
@ #6 Florida (40%)
Probable Loss (3)
@ #4 LSU (37%)
#2 Georgia (37%)
#1 Alabama (27%)
This post was edited on 7/9/19 at 2:44 pm
Posted on 7/9/19 at 2:47 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
@ #10 Mississippi St (75%)
Second lowest out of all teams... so you're saying there's a chance.
Posted on 7/9/19 at 2:49 pm to BhamBlazeDog
Clemson's Toughest Games per S&P+
1. @ South Carolina (77%)
2. Texas A&M (79%)
3. @ NC State (89%)
4. vs FSU (89%)
5. @ Syracuse (91%)
Hmmm
1. @ South Carolina (77%)
2. Texas A&M (79%)
3. @ NC State (89%)
4. vs FSU (89%)
5. @ Syracuse (91%)
Hmmm
Posted on 7/9/19 at 2:50 pm to Farmer1906
quote:
Defense (SEC Avg : #30.0)
#2 - Mississippi St
This looks questionable to me based on how much they lost.
We lost 3 players, granted all 3 were 1st rounders, but we still return a whole lot of production. Our LB and Secondary this year will be the team's best strength.
ETA: I think Shoop is a very underrated DC as well. I give him just as much credit schematically as I do the players going out and executing. He dialed things up at the right time all year.
This post was edited on 7/9/19 at 2:52 pm
Posted on 7/9/19 at 2:57 pm to BobLeeDagger
That pretty good DL coach that developed two first round picks left for Alabama. 
Page 1 of 4
Back to top
Follow SECRant for SEC Football News