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Projecting the Final CFB Playoff Rankings based on FPI
Posted on 10/7/19 at 10:09 am
Posted on 10/7/19 at 10:09 am
Obviously upsets will occur, but if the remaining games were to fall according to ESPN FPI, here's how the final rankings would likely look IMO:
1. Ohio State (13-0)
Wins over #7 Penn St.; #9 Wisconsin (2x); #16 Michigan; #19 Cincinnati
2. Alabama (13-0)
Wins over #5 Georgia; #6 LSU; #13 Auburn
3. Oklahoma (13-0)
Wins over #12 Baylor (2x); #18 Iowa St.; #25 Texas
4. Clemson (13-0)
Win over #14 Wake Forest
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5. Georgia (12-1)
Wins over #8 Notre Dame; #11 Florida; #13 Auburn; #15 Missouri.... LOSS to #2 Alabama
6. LSU (11-1)
Wins over #11 Florida; #13 Auburn, #25 Texas... LOSS to #2 Alabama
7. Penn St. (11-1)
Wins over #16 Michigan; #17 Iowa... LOSS to # 1 Ohio St.
8. Notre Dame (11-1)
Win over #16 Michigan... LOSS to #5 Georgia
9. Wisconsin (11-2)
Wins over #16 Michigan; #17 Iowa... LOSSES to #1 Ohio St. (2x)
10. Oregon (12-1)
Wins over #23 Utah (2x); #24 Washington... LOSS to #13 Auburn
11. Florida (10-2)
Wins over #13 Auburn; #15 Missouri... LOSSES to #5 Georgia; #6 LSU
12. Baylor (10-3)
Wins over #18 Iowa St; #25 Texas... LOSSES to #3 Oklahoma (2x); NR Oklahoma St.
13. Auburn (8-4)
Win over #10 Oregon... LOSSES to #2 Alabama, #5 Georgia; #6 LSU; #11 Florida
14. Wake Forest (11-1)
Zero Top 25 Wins; LOSS to #4 Clemson
15. Missouri (9-3)
Zero Top 25 Wins; LOSSES to #5 Georgia; #11 Florida; NR Wyoming
16. Michigan (8-4)
Win over #17 Iowa; LOSSES To #1 Ohio St.; #7 Penn St.; #8 Notre Dame; #9 Wisconsin
17. Iowa (9-3)
Win over #18 Iowa St.; LOSSES to #7 Penn St.; #9 Wisconsin; #16 Michigan
18. Iowa St. (9-3)
Win over #25 Texas; Losses to #3 Oklahoma; #12 Baylor; #17 Iowa
19. Cincinnati (11-2)
Win over #20 Memphis; LOSSES to #1 Ohio St.; #20 Memphis
20. Memphis (12-1)
Win over #16 Cincinnati; #22 SMU... LOSS to #19 Cincinnati
21. Boise St. (13-0)
Zero Top 25 Wins
22. SMU (11-1)
Zero Top 25 Wins... LOSS to #20 Memphis
23. Utah (10-3)
Zero Top 25 Wins... LOSSES to #10 Oregon; #23 Washington; NR Cal
24. Washington (9-3)
Zero Top 25 Wins... LOSSES to #10 Oregon; NR Cal; NR Stanford
25. Texas (8-4)
Zero Top 25 Wins... LOSSES to #3 Oklahoma; #6 LSU; #12 Baylor; #17 Iowa St.
1. Ohio State (13-0)
Wins over #7 Penn St.; #9 Wisconsin (2x); #16 Michigan; #19 Cincinnati
2. Alabama (13-0)
Wins over #5 Georgia; #6 LSU; #13 Auburn
3. Oklahoma (13-0)
Wins over #12 Baylor (2x); #18 Iowa St.; #25 Texas
4. Clemson (13-0)
Win over #14 Wake Forest
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5. Georgia (12-1)
Wins over #8 Notre Dame; #11 Florida; #13 Auburn; #15 Missouri.... LOSS to #2 Alabama
6. LSU (11-1)
Wins over #11 Florida; #13 Auburn, #25 Texas... LOSS to #2 Alabama
7. Penn St. (11-1)
Wins over #16 Michigan; #17 Iowa... LOSS to # 1 Ohio St.
8. Notre Dame (11-1)
Win over #16 Michigan... LOSS to #5 Georgia
9. Wisconsin (11-2)
Wins over #16 Michigan; #17 Iowa... LOSSES to #1 Ohio St. (2x)
10. Oregon (12-1)
Wins over #23 Utah (2x); #24 Washington... LOSS to #13 Auburn
11. Florida (10-2)
Wins over #13 Auburn; #15 Missouri... LOSSES to #5 Georgia; #6 LSU
12. Baylor (10-3)
Wins over #18 Iowa St; #25 Texas... LOSSES to #3 Oklahoma (2x); NR Oklahoma St.
13. Auburn (8-4)
Win over #10 Oregon... LOSSES to #2 Alabama, #5 Georgia; #6 LSU; #11 Florida
14. Wake Forest (11-1)
Zero Top 25 Wins; LOSS to #4 Clemson
15. Missouri (9-3)
Zero Top 25 Wins; LOSSES to #5 Georgia; #11 Florida; NR Wyoming
16. Michigan (8-4)
Win over #17 Iowa; LOSSES To #1 Ohio St.; #7 Penn St.; #8 Notre Dame; #9 Wisconsin
17. Iowa (9-3)
Win over #18 Iowa St.; LOSSES to #7 Penn St.; #9 Wisconsin; #16 Michigan
18. Iowa St. (9-3)
Win over #25 Texas; Losses to #3 Oklahoma; #12 Baylor; #17 Iowa
19. Cincinnati (11-2)
Win over #20 Memphis; LOSSES to #1 Ohio St.; #20 Memphis
20. Memphis (12-1)
Win over #16 Cincinnati; #22 SMU... LOSS to #19 Cincinnati
21. Boise St. (13-0)
Zero Top 25 Wins
22. SMU (11-1)
Zero Top 25 Wins... LOSS to #20 Memphis
23. Utah (10-3)
Zero Top 25 Wins... LOSSES to #10 Oregon; #23 Washington; NR Cal
24. Washington (9-3)
Zero Top 25 Wins... LOSSES to #10 Oregon; NR Cal; NR Stanford
25. Texas (8-4)
Zero Top 25 Wins... LOSSES to #3 Oklahoma; #6 LSU; #12 Baylor; #17 Iowa St.
This post was edited on 10/7/19 at 10:13 am
Posted on 10/7/19 at 10:10 am to BHMKyle
quote:
4. Clemson (13-0)
Win over #14 Wake Forest
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5. Georgia (12-1)
Wins over #8 Notre Dame; #11 Florida; #12 Auburn; #15 Missouri.... LOSS to #2 Alabama
6. LSU (11-1)
Wins over #11 Florida; #13 Auburn, #25 Texas... LOSS to #2 Alabama
I mean..........boy. Clemson would go, because they are the defending champs and would be undefeated........but that's gonna be one big time discussion and debate.
Posted on 10/7/19 at 10:11 am to BHMKyle
Obviously the big debate would be does Clemson deserve that final playoff spot with only a single win over a ranked team... who would also be a team without a single win over a ranked team.
You'd have Georgia, LSU, and Penn State all sitting out there with multiple big wins and losses only to the Top 2 teams.
Quite a debate, but my guess is Clemson would get the nod unfortunately.
You'd have Georgia, LSU, and Penn State all sitting out there with multiple big wins and losses only to the Top 2 teams.
Quite a debate, but my guess is Clemson would get the nod unfortunately.
Posted on 10/7/19 at 10:17 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
I mean..........boy. Clemson would go, because they are the defending champs and would be undefeated........but that's gonna be one big time discussion and debate.
Yep. In all truth, the American might be a better conference this year than the ACC.
What will really get interesting is if Memphis runs the table at 13-0, and also if Ole Miss were to beat Texas A&M.
This about it: Memphis would have wins over Cincinnati (2x), SMU, and a win over SEC Ole Miss in Oxford.... a team who would have defeated Texas A&M... Clemson's 2nd best win.
Clemson would have a win over Wake Forest and their next best win would likely be over 6-6 Texas A&M or 9-3 North Carolina (who would have a loss to App State)
Of course Memphis will never be seriously considered for the Playoff by the Committee, and Clemson would still get the 4th spot, but the fact of the matter would be Memphis would have tbe better resume.
This post was edited on 10/7/19 at 10:18 am
Posted on 10/7/19 at 10:17 am to BHMKyle
Will Wake Forest be ranked at the end of the year?
Posted on 10/7/19 at 10:20 am to BHMKyle
quote:
Yep. In all truth, the American might be a better conference this year than the ACC.
What will really get interesting is if Memphis runs the table at 13-0, and also if Ole Miss were to beat Texas A&M.
This about it: Memphis would have wins over Cincinnati (2x), SMU, and a win over SEC Ole Miss in Oxford.... a team who would have defeated Texas A&M... Clemson's 2nd best win.
Clemson would have a win over Wake Forest and their next best win would likely be over 6-6 Texas A&M or 9-3 North Carolina.
Of course Memphis will never be seriously considered for the Playoff by the Committee, and Clemson would still get the 4th spot, but the fact of the matter would be Memphis would have tbe better resume.
SP+ League Ranks
1. SEC (13.4)
2. Big XII (12.6)
3. Big Ten (12.0)
4. Pac 12 (9.2)
5. ACC (4.4)
5. AAC (2.0)
SP+ Division Ranks
1. SEC West (15.9)
2. Big Ten East (14.8)
3. Big XII (12.6)
4. SEC East (11.0)
...
...
...
8. ACC Atlantic (5.8)
9. AAC West (5.7)
10. ACC Coastal (3.1)
11. AAC East (-1.7)
The ACC is closer to the AAC than it is the Pac 12. The AAC West is a better division than the Coastal and basically even to the Atlantic. Imagine if you looked at it from a perspective of the top team in each league's competition - meaning you took out Clemson from the ACC or Memphis/Cincy from the AAC...............
That's shocking.
This post was edited on 10/7/19 at 10:23 am
Posted on 10/7/19 at 10:26 am to GatorNation4Lyfe
quote:
Will Wake Forest be ranked at the end of the year?
FPI has them going 11-1 and only losing to Clemson... so I imagine yes, they'll be ranked if that were to happen. But it would be very undeserving IMO. They are not a Top 25 in all reality.
Posted on 10/7/19 at 10:30 am to BHMKyle
This might only happen if those 4 teams go undefeated. It’s very unlikely that happens so I don’t believe we will be in this situation.
Posted on 10/7/19 at 10:31 am to BHMKyle
Not going to lie, it makes me melty seeing Dabo acting all smug and mighty when that's the path he has to take.
Posted on 10/7/19 at 10:33 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
4. SEC East (11.0)
actually surprised the east is behind the big 12
edit: I guess the bottom of the east is truly that bad.
I bet the SEC east has more teams in the T25 than the B12 in final ranking
This post was edited on 10/7/19 at 10:34 am
Posted on 10/7/19 at 10:33 am to BHMKyle
It's an interesting list, and a reasonable take that assumes that all those big games coming up hold chalk for the rest of the season.
There's an column by Bill Connelly today that says that chalk is not likely to happen. He uses SP+ but the idea is the same.
Just a small quote from his article
Over the past 20 years, college football has averaged just 1.3 unbeaten power conference teams after championship week, plus 3.7 one-loss power conference teams and 0.7 unbeaten mid-majors. We have gotten to the finish line with zero unbeatens more times in that span (four) than we've had three unbeatens (three).
SP+ projects zero teams with a better than 50% chance of getting to championship week unbeaten. Only five Power 5 conference teams have a better than 10% chance (Clemson 42%, Ohio State 33%, Alabama 30%, Oklahoma 21%, Georgia 15%), and the combined chance of all five teams going 12-0 is just 0.1%. Heck, they have only a 14% chance of all going 11-1 or better.
Bill Connelly ESPN column
There's an column by Bill Connelly today that says that chalk is not likely to happen. He uses SP+ but the idea is the same.
Just a small quote from his article
Over the past 20 years, college football has averaged just 1.3 unbeaten power conference teams after championship week, plus 3.7 one-loss power conference teams and 0.7 unbeaten mid-majors. We have gotten to the finish line with zero unbeatens more times in that span (four) than we've had three unbeatens (three).
SP+ projects zero teams with a better than 50% chance of getting to championship week unbeaten. Only five Power 5 conference teams have a better than 10% chance (Clemson 42%, Ohio State 33%, Alabama 30%, Oklahoma 21%, Georgia 15%), and the combined chance of all five teams going 12-0 is just 0.1%. Heck, they have only a 14% chance of all going 11-1 or better.
Bill Connelly ESPN column
Posted on 10/7/19 at 10:35 am to GatorNation4Lyfe
quote:
Will Wake Forest be ranked at the end of the year?
It would be surprising. Their schedule has been pretty easy and they have a lot of 50-50 games on the back end. Texas A&M or Florida St are just as likely to end up Clemson's highest ranked win.
Posted on 10/7/19 at 10:38 am to BHMKyle
quote:
Obviously the big debate would be does Clemson deserve that final playoff spot with only a single win over a ranked team
Tillman will be along shortly to advise you how dumb you are
Posted on 10/7/19 at 10:39 am to BHMKyle
So Baylor plays OU in the Big 12 Championship game and not Texas. Interdasting.
Posted on 10/7/19 at 10:42 am to FlexDawg
quote:
This might only happen if those 4 teams go undefeated. It’s very unlikely that happens so I don’t believe we will be in this situation.
Yeah, obviously upsets seem to happen most years. However, Oklahoma and Clemson have cream puff schedules to close out the year.
The BIG 10 is guaranteed at least one team in the Playoff.... so that takes one spot.
Clemson has zero games remaining against anyone decent. Literally. So they will likely take a spot.
Oklahoma's biggest test is probably this weekend against Texas, so unfortunately they'll likely take a spot.
That leaves the SEC Champ left for one guaranteed spot.
Posted on 10/7/19 at 10:45 am to BHMKyle
quote:
Oklahoma's biggest test is probably this weekend against Texas, so unfortunately they'll likely take a spot.
But they would then have to play the #2 team in their league again.
Posted on 10/7/19 at 10:48 am to BHMKyle
Sigh....these SEC inbreds and their metrics.
Every single season we hear how weak the ACC is and how weak Clemson's schedule is....
Then rivalry weekend rolls around and the ACC spanks that SEC arse. Yes I know the SEC got the upper hand last year but go look at the record in those games the last 5-6 years.
Then the playoffs roll around and we know what happens then....
Every single season we hear how weak the ACC is and how weak Clemson's schedule is....
Then rivalry weekend rolls around and the ACC spanks that SEC arse. Yes I know the SEC got the upper hand last year but go look at the record in those games the last 5-6 years.
Then the playoffs roll around and we know what happens then....
Posted on 10/7/19 at 10:48 am to BHMKyle
In reality I think:
0 or 1 loss SEC, B1G and Big 12 champs are in
Then you have the debate depending:
13-0 Clemson no good wins
12-1 SECCG loser
11-1 SEC 2nd team in West or 2nd team in East
Potential 12-1 B1GCG loser
11-1 B1G east 2nd team
Would think it finishes in this order
0 or 1 loss SEC, B1G and Big 12 champs are in
Then you have the debate depending:
13-0 Clemson no good wins
12-1 SECCG loser
11-1 SEC 2nd team in West or 2nd team in East
Potential 12-1 B1GCG loser
11-1 B1G east 2nd team
Would think it finishes in this order
Posted on 10/7/19 at 10:49 am to Bucks2TigerFan
quote:
SP+ projects zero teams with a better than 50% chance of getting to championship week unbeaten.
If SP+ doesn't think Clemson has a better than 50% of being unbeaten they need to blow it up and find a new model.
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