The model is based on YPP averages as a % of opponents averages. So, basically, you gained 4.0 YPA rushing vs Team A. Team A gives up 3.5 YPA to P5 teams excluding you. You averaged 114% of your opponents average. Then moves down the line. I did one earlier that was just total YPP, but this one broke it out into Rush/Pass, so its a little more specific in comparing matchups (run d vs run o, pass d vs pass o).

After the LSU game I tried to run some tweaks to see what might have had better predictive qualities in terms of yards per point and predictive play selection, and I think I found a few. The yards and yards per play numbers were very close for Bama/LSU and UGA/UF. The changes to yards per point moved the Bama/LSU predictive score from Bama 38-30 to Bama 34-33 and UF/GA from 20-19 I think to UGA 27-20.

#12 AUBURN VS #4 GEORGIA (UGA -3.0) (O/U 41) (Vegas Expected Outcome : GEORGIA 22-19)

GEORGIA : 20
AUBURN : 19

Georgia Stats
- 39 rushes, 155 yards, 3.98 YPA
- 30 passes, 178 yards, 5.92 YPA
- 69 plays, 333 yards, 4.82 YPP

Auburn Stats
- 40 rushes, 142 yards, 3.56 YPA
- 32 passes, 181 yards, 5.65 YPA
- 72 plays, 323 yards, 4.49 YPP

The Georgia offense averages 121% of opponents rush YPA allowed and 97% of opponents pass YPA allowed. The Georgia defense allows 78% of opponents rush YPA and 82% of opponents pass YPA.

The Auburn offense averages 106% of opponents rush YPA allowed and 97% of opponents pass YPA allowed. The Auburn defense allows 71% of opponents rush YPA and 82% of opponents pass YPA.

OLE MISS VS #1 LSU (LSU -21.5) (O/U 65.5) (Vegas Expected Outcome : LSU 43-22)

LSU : 42
OLE MISS : 23

LSU Stats
- 40 rushes, 172 yards, 4.30 YPA
- 35 passes, 397 yards, 11.34 YPA
- 75 plays, 569 yards, 7.59 YPP

Ole Miss Stats
- 49 rushes, 246 yards, 5.01 YPA
- 26 passes, 161 yards, 6.20 YPA
- 75 plays, 407 yards, 5.42 YPP

The LSU offense averages 108% of opponents rush YPA allowed and 144% of opponents pass YPA allowed. The LSU defense allows 86% of opponents rush YPA and 95% of opponents pass YPA.

The Ole Miss offense averages 137% of opponents rush YPA allowed and 89% of opponents pass YPA allowed. The Ole Miss defense allows 96% of opponents rush YPA and 120% of opponents pass YPA.

* Arkansas not included for Ole Miss offense as the entire offense, QB and scheme changed in the Cal game forward

Two models for the Alabama game - a Tua model (all stats) and a no-Tua model (2nd half TN & Arkansas stats)

MISSISSIPPI STATE VS #5 ALABAMA (BAMA -17.5) (O/U 61) (Vegas Expected Outcome : Bama 40-22) (FULL SEASON MODEL)

ALABAMA : 55
MISSISSIPPI ST : 24

Alabama Stats
- 32 rushes, 159 yards, 4.97 YPA
- 35 passes, 419 yards, 11.98 YPA
- 67 plays, 578 yards, 8.63 YPP

Mississippi St Stats
- 39 rushes, 186 yards, 4.78 YPA
- 26 passes, 172 yards, 6.61 YPA
- 65 plays, 358 yards, 5.51 YPP

The Alabama offense averages 99% of opponents rush YPA allowed and 147% of opponents pass YPA allowed. The Alabama defense allows 96% of opponents rush YPA and 90% of opponents pass YPA.

The Mississippi St offense averages 113% of opponents rush YPA allowed and 102% of opponents pass YPA allowed. The Mississippi St defense allows 119% of opponents rush YPA and 124% of opponents pass YPA.

MISSISSIPPI STATE VS #5 ALABAMA (BAMA -17.5) (O/U 61) (Vegas Expected Outcome : Bama 40-22) (NO TUA MODEL)

ALABAMA : 43
MISSISSIPPI ST : 24

Alabama Stats
- 36 rushes, 180 yards, 4.99 YPA
- 27 passes, 261 yards, 9.65 YPA
- 63 plays, 441 yards, 7.00 YPP

Mississippi St Stats
- 39 rushes, 186 yards, 4.78 YPA
- 26 passes, 172 yards, 6.61 YPA
- 65 plays, 358 yards, 5.51 YPP

The Alabama offense averages 94% of opponents rush YPA allowed and 105% of opponents pass YPA allowed. The Alabama defense allows 96% of opponents rush YPA and 90% of opponents pass YPA.

The Mississippi St offense averages 113% of opponents rush YPA allowed and 102% of opponents pass YPA allowed. The Mississippi St defense allows 119% of opponents rush YPA and 124% of opponents pass YPA.