re: Predict the Alabama/LSU Game score Nov. 3rd

quote:

---

Welcome to the 90s. Since 2000- 9-4 who do you think is on the upside of that record?

---

A lot of people are on the upside of that record, particularly given that carefully chosen time frame--including six of the worst years in Alabama history. Auburn folks are hanging on to that era with every inch of their being.

We can go back a bit further, or all the way--which would be equally irrelevant--and the LSU numbers wouldn't look so good.

I'm just trying to keep it in this millennium. Bama fans love living on overall records because they were once the only good football team in the south. Times have changed, same goes for the LSU baseball program. More people care now, so it's harder to win. I'm not here to argue exact scores in April, but bama fans will never act like they're even worried about one game. Nobody has really responded to the draft pick question.. Anyone thinks AJ is drafted higher?

And chilld, you should request a name change on the help board. Take one L out, because I've never seen your posts surpass the intelligence level of a child.

quote:

---

particularly given that carefully chosen time frame

---

True, cut/paste history is pretty common but I think the following is fairly relevant:

Bama pre-Bear....Bryant.........post Bear
AU.....08-07-01....19-05-00....13-17-00
UGA..22-16-03....09-03-00.....05-05-00
UF.....09-04-00....07-01-00....08-09-00
LSU..15-06-04....16-03-01.....15-15-01
UT....18-17-04....16-06-02.....15-14-01
===================================
Tot.....72-50-12....67-18-03....56-60-02
Win%....55%.........76%..............48%

Last 30 years is more than just a pick and choose isn't it?

quote:

---

I'm just trying to keep it in this millennium.

---

And it just so happens that's the most favorable time frame. As it is with every other SEC opponent when it comes to Alabama.

The only relevant comparison--especially between LSU and Alabama--is since 2007. And I think we're pretty even.

And we are 2-1 against LSU when it was all on the line--2009 and 2011.

You seem to be hung up on Zack's draft stock. I don't really care, as it has little or no bearing on winning championships. Fine: Zack will be a higher draft pick. I feel stupid saying that wihtout ever having seen him play a game on a big stage, but hey, it seems to be what you are looking for.

As to "worrying" about one game, yes, LSU would easily be my biggest worry. Especially with the meltdown in Fayettville.

Note, I never said I thought we'd win that game. I don't think we have enough info. I think I know what Alabama will look like next year. I have suspicions that LSU won't live up to the lofty expectations of being a preseason BCS favorite. We'll know more 3 or 4 games in.

quote:

---

True, cut/paste history is pretty common but I think the following is fairly relevant:

Bama pre-Bear....Bryant.........post Bear
AU.....08-07-01....19-05-00....13-17-00
UGA..22-16-03....09-03-00.....05-05-00
UF.....09-04-00....07-01-00....08-09-00
LSU..15-06-04....16-03-01.....15-15-01
UT....18-17-04....16-06-02.....15-14-01
===================================
Tot.....72-50-12....67-18-03....56-60-02
Win%....55%.........76%..............48%

Last 30 years is more than just a pick and choose isn't it?

---

I fully acknowledge those numbers.
When using history as a predictor of the future, one must use things that were relevant in that history.

Run those numbers since 2007 and it would paint a different picture. The constant? Nick Saban, who is still there. Would you say the 2007-2011 numbers would be a more accurate prediction of the near future, or the 1903-2011 numbers?

Nothing before 2007 matters unless you're talking bragging rights. And, in that regard, I'd choose to go back all time, where we have a winning record against every SEC team.

But that is not relevant. What is relevant in predicting future outcomes is to compare constants. That's hard to do with a lot of teams since there are coaching changes, but not with LSU/Bama. Now I'm not saying we win next year because of this--how could I, when we've split wins since then for the most part. I'm just saying quoting records since 2000 has nothing to do with what happens next year in Baton Rouge.

quote:

---

But that time frame thing is debunked, if you look up about 2 posts.

---

I did. And that time frame--not one of my choosing--shows a pretty significant margin in favor of Alabama over LSU.

I understand those sentiments. The only reason I stated the records of the last ten years, was to show Child that his little Bryant Denny West comment was a bit outdated. Not trying to use the past to predict the future, by any means.

And yes, 2007-present is the most important, and I'd say we're due a win if we're using that stretch of history.

quote:

---

was to show Child that his little Bryant Denny West comment was a bit outdated.

---

Not really. We just own the mortgage and y'all are trying to pay it off

quote:

---

I understand those sentiments. The only reason I stated the records of the last ten years, was to show Child that his little Bryant Denny West comment was a bit outdated. Not trying to use the past to predict the future, by any means.

And yes, 2007-present is the most important, and I'd say we're due a win if we're using that stretch of history.

---

And using history and watching 22 years of Alabama football, if pressed, I'd probably go with Alabama falling in Baton Rouge next year.

I'm anxious to see how LSU responds. I know you guys love him--but I don't know what to expect out of Les Miles.

I will say--I was impressed with how clean the BCS game appeared to be. A lot cleaner than the regular season game. I thought both played with a lot of class. Though I got some satisfaction out of giving that punter/kicker of yours a dose of humility.

I don't dislike Les Miles. He is no Phil Phulmer. I just don't know what to expect out of him. In retrospect, HE is the biggest x-factor for next year.

quote:

---

No thanks. I was born in 1968. LSU didn't beat Bama until I was 14 years old. I get it.

---

Yeah, born in 60. I remember the 70's 'Bama weekend...loss..check' and the 90's 'Spurrier weekend...30 point beatdown...check'. At present, life is good.