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Odds to win CWS per the Wynn

Posted on 6/15/21 at 12:09 pm
Posted by Serraneaux
South of 30a
Member since Mar 2014
19602 posts
Posted on 6/15/21 at 12:09 pm
Kind of different from the unbiased secrant picks I've seen:

Vandy +250
Texas +300
Vols +600
Arizona +800
Stanford +800
MS State +1000
Virginia +1000
NC State +1200
Posted by Eric Nies Grind Time
Atlanta GA - ITP
Member since Sep 2012
24933 posts
Posted on 6/15/21 at 12:12 pm to
NC State is pretty tempting.
Posted by Serraneaux
South of 30a
Member since Mar 2014
19602 posts
Posted on 6/15/21 at 12:12 pm to
Dare I say it....so is Miss State
Posted by WhiteGramblingGrad72
West Jefferson
Member since Sep 2020
403 posts
Posted on 6/15/21 at 12:13 pm to
Good money for MSST or Arizona
Posted by SummerOfGeorge
Member since Jul 2013
102699 posts
Posted on 6/15/21 at 12:15 pm to
I don't think NC State has enough pitching to get through things, but they certainly are playing well.

Vanderbilt is kind of hard to decide on. On the one hand, they have the best 1/2 punch in Omaha - clearly. And that matters in that park. On the other hand, they have been very up and down outside of Leiter/Rocker.

I just don't know enough about Texas, Stanford or Arizona to make a judgement.

I agree with everyone above, State seems to have the right combination of arms and bats to feel like a complete enough team to get through things.
This post was edited on 6/15/21 at 12:16 pm
Posted by AUCE05
Member since Dec 2009
42557 posts
Posted on 6/15/21 at 12:17 pm to
Vols-MSU looks tasty. Any of those can close it out.

ETA

May drop a hundo on MSU
This post was edited on 6/15/21 at 12:20 pm
Posted by ColoradoAg
Colorado
Member since Sep 2011
21778 posts
Posted on 6/15/21 at 12:19 pm to
Stanford looks pretty good at those odds ...
Posted by lsufball19
Franklin, TN
Member since Sep 2008
64470 posts
Posted on 6/15/21 at 12:21 pm to
quote:

Vanderbilt is kind of hard to decide on. On the one hand, they have the best 1/2 punch in Omaha - clearly. And that matters in that park. On the other hand, they have been very up and down outside of Leiter/Rocker.


Yep, if Rocker and Leiter give them good outings, they're going to be tough to beat. If one of them has a bad game, they will realy struggle to get out of the losers bracket. Their depth is very suspect, but if they win their first two games, they'll get enough days of rest not to need to get into the rest of their staff
Posted by lsufball19
Franklin, TN
Member since Sep 2008
64470 posts
Posted on 6/15/21 at 12:22 pm to
quote:

Stanford looks pretty good at those odds ...


I agree. Stanford is a really scary team right now.
Posted by SummerOfGeorge
Member since Jul 2013
102699 posts
Posted on 6/15/21 at 12:22 pm to
quote:

Yep, if Rocker and Leiter give them good outings, they're going to be tough to beat. If one of them has a bad game, they will realy struggle to get out of the losers bracket. Their depth is very suspect, but if they win their first two games, they'll get enough days of rest not to need to get into the rest of their staff



They definitely feel like a "have to stay on schedule" team.

If they do, they're probably the best bet. If they lose early, they'll have to have some young (and of course uber talented) kids step up.
Posted by starkvingrad
Florida
Member since Apr 2021
5837 posts
Posted on 6/15/21 at 12:24 pm to
That Tennessee line is tempting
Posted by starkvingrad
Florida
Member since Apr 2021
5837 posts
Posted on 6/15/21 at 12:26 pm to
quote:

Dare I say it....so is Miss State


I'm thinking about it myself.
Posted by lsufball19
Franklin, TN
Member since Sep 2008
64470 posts
Posted on 6/15/21 at 12:34 pm to
quote:

They definitely feel like a "have to stay on schedule" team.

If they do, they're probably the best bet. If they lose early, they'll have to have some young (and of course uber talented) kids step up.



Yeah, if you take out their first few weekends against nobody's in February/March, they have a losing record on Sundays starting with their series with Oklahoma State. They've tried several different guys in that #3 spot, and all of them have ERAs at or around 5 or higher. And they really lack the volume of bullpen arms we're used to seeing from them. But, as you know, if Rocker and Leiter pitch like they usually do, I'm not sure anyone can beat them.

Their first game is on June 19. If they win, they play on June 21. If they win their second game, they wouldn't play again until the 24th or 25th. The title series starts June 28th. They could conceiveably pitch Rocker game 1, Leiter game 2, Rocker again game 3 on 5-6 days rest, Leiter in game 4 on 4-5 days rest, and Rocker in game 5 on 4-5 days rest without ever starting anyone else.

I honestly wish they hadn't extended out the time between games in Omaha. Back in the 90s, the CWS, start to finish, was like 7-8 days, so you had to go beyond the top of your staff to win. Now, with it being about 2 weeks from start to finish, you really don't have to do that anymore unless you find your way into the losers bracket
This post was edited on 6/15/21 at 12:36 pm
Posted by Farmer1906
The Woodlands, TX
Member since Apr 2009
50204 posts
Posted on 6/15/21 at 12:48 pm to
I think MSU is the best value on the board. I actually think Tenn should be a little higher so they may have some value too.
Posted by Farmer1906
The Woodlands, TX
Member since Apr 2009
50204 posts
Posted on 6/15/21 at 12:50 pm to
They also changed the finals to add games.
Posted by Vandyrone
Nashville, TN
Member since Dec 2012
6953 posts
Posted on 6/15/21 at 12:53 pm to
quote:

They definitely feel like a "have to stay on schedule" team.

This is exactly right. And even if they do stay on schedule to get to the finals, they would have to sweep 2-0 because they would likely lose a Game 3 unless Christian Little could replicate what he did in Hoover as a 17 yr old for all the marbles. I’m not sure Corbin would even put him in that spot.

Honestly, too many things would have to fall into place for them to repeat, making them a pretty poor bet as the favorite.
Posted by Vandyrone
Nashville, TN
Member since Dec 2012
6953 posts
Posted on 6/15/21 at 12:55 pm to
quote:

Their first game is on June 19. If they win, they play on June 21. If they win their second game, they wouldn't play again until the 24th or 25th. The title series starts June 28th. They could conceiveably pitch Rocker game 1, Leiter game 2, Rocker again game 3 on 5-6 days rest, Leiter in game 4 on 4-5 days rest, and Rocker in game 5 on 4-5 days rest without ever starting anyone else.

If I’m not mistaken, I think Michigan did exactly this in 2019.
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