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Objective analysis thread
Posted on 11/6/19 at 2:46 pm
Posted on 11/6/19 at 2:46 pm
Listening to breakdowns from both sides' media I think both camps are undervaluing the others' defense. Neither are vintage but both have improved as the season has gone along and I expect both to have good days on Saturday, I don't think we'll see a 52-49 type game out there.
As much talk as there has been about the passing game for both teams I actually think whomever does the better job slowing down the running game will have the inside track as those tough yards on 3rd and 4 is what I think will be the key for both teams.
Overall I give the edge to Bama not just because of the intangibles (Saban, home game) but because the matchup I like least for either team is the LSU pass rush vs the Bama OLine. If you can't get Tua off his spot then eventually he's going to break you down.
If we win it will be because Burrow, Aranda, and Brady all had A+ days. Like I said last week, as good as we've been we've also been pretty sloppy during a stretch in pretty much every game and I've seen too many Nick Saban teams show up and play mistake free football in the big spot. Y'all won't shut us down like you have in years past but I think you'll be patient and fundamentally solid enough that we have to earn every bit of it. 60/40 Bama wins.
As much talk as there has been about the passing game for both teams I actually think whomever does the better job slowing down the running game will have the inside track as those tough yards on 3rd and 4 is what I think will be the key for both teams.
Overall I give the edge to Bama not just because of the intangibles (Saban, home game) but because the matchup I like least for either team is the LSU pass rush vs the Bama OLine. If you can't get Tua off his spot then eventually he's going to break you down.
If we win it will be because Burrow, Aranda, and Brady all had A+ days. Like I said last week, as good as we've been we've also been pretty sloppy during a stretch in pretty much every game and I've seen too many Nick Saban teams show up and play mistake free football in the big spot. Y'all won't shut us down like you have in years past but I think you'll be patient and fundamentally solid enough that we have to earn every bit of it. 60/40 Bama wins.
Posted on 11/6/19 at 2:48 pm to Draconian Sanctions
100% agree with all of that
Good stuff
Good stuff
Posted on 11/6/19 at 2:50 pm to SummerOfGeorge
As do I. Think it will be a 31-28 type game
Posted on 11/6/19 at 2:52 pm to Nado Jenkins83
quote:
Think it will be a 31-28 type game
Definitely see it more in the 60-70 point range than 80-90.
Posted on 11/6/19 at 2:54 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Yea. I expect there to be periods of fast and slow play by the offenses depending on the game situation
Whoever wins the turnover margin probably will have the inside track to a W
Whoever wins the turnover margin probably will have the inside track to a W
This post was edited on 11/6/19 at 2:56 pm
Posted on 11/6/19 at 2:55 pm to Nado Jenkins83
You don't generally get into the 45-40 type games without tons of big plays and/or bad tackling.
Both of these defenses have faults but neither gives up a bunch of big plays.
Both of these defenses have faults but neither gives up a bunch of big plays.
Posted on 11/6/19 at 2:59 pm to Draconian Sanctions
quote:
Overall I give the edge to Bama not just because of the intangibles (Saban, home game) but because the matchup I like least for either team is the LSU pass rush vs the Bama OLine. If you can't get Tua off his spot then eventually he's going to break you down.
Yea our pass blocking has been really good. Tua supplements it well through his pocket movement. This is Bama’s biggest matchup advantage
LSUs biggest, in my opinion, will be getting 5-8 yards on early downs with the running and short passing game. I’m worried about the young linebackers keeping LSU off schedule
Posted on 11/6/19 at 2:59 pm to SummerOfGeorge
We’ve been good for one a game in SEC play. All long runs I believe
Posted on 11/6/19 at 2:59 pm to Glorious
quote:
LSUs biggest, in my opinion, will be getting 5-8 yards on early downs with the running and short passing game. I’m worried about the young linebackers keeping LSU off schedule
Agree
Posted on 11/6/19 at 3:00 pm to Sun God
quote:
All long runs I believe
We we are super efficient but completely non-explosive in the rushing game.
Almost all our carries go between 4-12 yards, near 0% go for negative or 20+.
Posted on 11/6/19 at 3:05 pm to Glorious
How will Tua do when there is pressure? He is a shifty guy when healthy and is great at avoiding the sack and throwing on the run. How much of his mobility is hampered by this injury? I'm really excited to see Aranda's game planning for this game. Hopefully he has something like the 2016 game up his sleeve.
Posted on 11/6/19 at 3:06 pm to SummerOfGeorge
If we can avoid that one back breaking long play y’all seem to have every year we’ll be sitting pretty
Posted on 11/6/19 at 3:08 pm to Barracuda
quote:
How will Tua do when there is pressure? He is a shifty guy when healthy and is great at avoiding the sack and throwing on the run. How much of his mobility is hampered by this injury?
A massive factor that nobody outside of the program knows at this point. Still Bama's pass blocking has been good regardless
Posted on 11/6/19 at 3:08 pm to Glorious
And our rush has been lackluster
Posted on 11/6/19 at 3:09 pm to Barracuda
quote:
How will Tua do when there is pressure? He is a shifty guy when healthy and is great at avoiding the sack and throwing on the run. How much of his mobility is hampered by this injury?
Don't think anybody will know until they kick it off
Posted on 11/6/19 at 3:10 pm to Sun God
People underestimate Burrows running ability too. I feel like this will be huge in this game.
Posted on 11/6/19 at 3:12 pm to Draconian Sanctions
I think you’re spot on. I think one of the intangibles, which goes in LSU’s favor is the tigers have everything to gain and very little to lose, while bama is just the opposite. (Playoffs not withstanding)
Somebody will have to step up to fill the void left by Divinity, which could happen, but is not a certainty.
The LSU defense is not a weak as advertised. They are giving up about the same yards per play as did the three previous BCS teams (03,07,and that other one). They are just playing more snaps due to the offensive efficiency.
LSU has started slow in their previous games and can’t afford to do that against Alabama.
The bama defense is always great at staying in their assignments and will put a lot of pressure on Burrow to take advantage of the few opportunities he gets.
I think it’s 50/50.
I just hope it’s a clean, hard fought, controversy free game.
May the better team win!
(Unless it’s bama, then I’ll take a bad call or rally possum or whatever is needed)
Somebody will have to step up to fill the void left by Divinity, which could happen, but is not a certainty.
The LSU defense is not a weak as advertised. They are giving up about the same yards per play as did the three previous BCS teams (03,07,and that other one). They are just playing more snaps due to the offensive efficiency.
LSU has started slow in their previous games and can’t afford to do that against Alabama.
The bama defense is always great at staying in their assignments and will put a lot of pressure on Burrow to take advantage of the few opportunities he gets.
I think it’s 50/50.
I just hope it’s a clean, hard fought, controversy free game.
May the better team win!
(Unless it’s bama, then I’ll take a bad call or rally possum or whatever is needed)
Posted on 11/6/19 at 3:15 pm to Draconian Sanctions
I think you absolutely nailed it. One other comment I would make about both defenses is that both have shown that they can have tackling lapses in the second level. I could see a big missed tackle here and there being the difference in the game.
Posted on 11/6/19 at 3:37 pm to majoredinwhitehorse
The one thing about the intangibles that could go our way is that people around here make SUCH a big deal out of this game when it's in BR, thinking thats our best shot, that the players tighten up a bit. Hoping the coaches are keeping them focused but loose this week without as many local distractions.
Obviously would rather a home game but I don't think this aspect is a total drawback for us. Add in that bc of Trump people are going to have to wait forever to get in the game that the crowd maybe won't be as lit as they otherwise would be. But maybe that's just me hoping that's the case.
Obviously would rather a home game but I don't think this aspect is a total drawback for us. Add in that bc of Trump people are going to have to wait forever to get in the game that the crowd maybe won't be as lit as they otherwise would be. But maybe that's just me hoping that's the case.
This post was edited on 11/6/19 at 3:44 pm
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