Kentucky vs. UGA....

After watching the UF-UK game and the LSU-UK game, I get why Kentucky fans are so excited.

That said, everything we've seen this season says Saturday will be a very different experience. LSU is not what they were two years ago, but they still carry the name value. It's not that different from beating an unranked UK team in basketball. It still carries some weight if you haven't beaten them very often.

I don't fault the Kentucky fans for believing they can win. What are they supposed to do after their first 6-0 start in six plus decades?
That said, I've just heard a lot of reaching this week to believe.

For instance

Lexington radio: "The last few years we've competed with UGA similar to way we have with Florida. Eventually we finally broke through." This just isn't true. While Kentucky has been in the game at the half the last two years, UGA has won every game the past four seasons by 11 or more. And UGA was in complete control of those games in the fourth quarter, having double digit leads entering the final 15 minutes.

The problem for Kentucky is that these two teams play the same style. So you have to beat someone who does what you do better than you do. These kind of matchups don't usually bode well for the lesser talent.

I think if there is one unit overall that might be a little better than UGAs, it's UK's Oline. But there is no real advantage there because they matchup with UGA's biggest strength.

I like the UK RB, but if we were forced to use Zeus so heavily I think his stats would look pretty similar.

UK probably has the best WR, but UGA's unit overall is stronger and we're getting a couple back this week.

I think the UK QB is better than the previous years, but stats don't really show him to be several tiers up. He did have a good game last week, but he's barely averaging over 100 yards per game in conference and UK hasn't exactly been in control of games in the second half the way UGA is. That has a lot to do with why we shut our passing game down.

UK's strengths are running the football, bend but don't break D and special teams. Throw in an explosive playmaker at WR and that's gonna win a lot of games. But it won't be nearly enough Saturday.

As far as the spread, I wouldn't want to bet on it and that's what I've found most of the pros saying. Kirby may manage this game where it's virtually impossible to cover. Both of these coaches have played very conservatively in these meetings of late. That could be what we see Saturday.

Could we lose? It's sports. Of course. But it would take something out of the ordinary. Being negative 3 or 4 in turnovers. Two TDs that come from a combination of defense and STs. It can happen, but it's just not likely.

Go Dawgs!!