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KenPom's "luckiest" SEC Basketball teams
Posted on 2/16/18 at 7:50 am
Posted on 2/16/18 at 7:50 am
quote:
Luck – A measure of the deviation between a team’s actual winning percentage and what one would expect from its game-by-game efficiencies. It’s a Dean Oliver invention. Essentially, a team involved in a lot of close games should not win (or lose) all of them. Those that do will be viewed as lucky (or unlucky).
74. Arkansas
97. Tennessee
121. Georgia
150. Missouri
169. Alabama
181. Mississippi State
188. South Carolina
191. Kentucky
205. Auburn
228. LSU
232. Texas A&M
241. Florida
287. Ole Miss
332. Vanderbilt
Basically, most of the SEC teams are about where the stats would expect them to be win-loss wise, or a bit on the short end of the stick (Vandy, for instance, has lost a bunch of close games to good teams).
Nationally, though, some interesting "big" games. The "luckiest" Power 5 + American teams
3. Xavier
11. Washington
18. Memphis
28. UConn
32. Providence
34. UCF
44. Nebraska
47. Kansas State
49. Colorado
59. Temple
70. East Carolina
76. Ohio State
83. Clemson
84. Kansas
99. Michigan State
100. Iowa State
Most unlucky teams that might end up under-seeded if they make the tournament or have lost a bunch of close games that will keep them out
345. Wake Forest
343. Illinois
342. DePaul
340. Oregon State
334. SMU
327. Wisconsin
326. Iowa
323. Notre Dame
315. Penn State
305. Maryland
302. Baylor
This post was edited on 2/16/18 at 7:55 am
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Posted on 2/16/18 at 7:57 am to SummerOfGeorge
I’ve never seen this ranking before and we aren’t that high overall but we do have issue with blowing anyone out- god forbid we get a little lead, we must then turn around and give it back. So, makes sense we’d be tops in the sec.
Posted on 2/16/18 at 9:31 am to SummerOfGeorge
This stat is something I know a few Gator fans started following simply because we always seem to be ranked among the "unluckiest".
A couple of years in the top 100, but usually in the 300's:
2009 - 326
2010 - 309
2011 - 84
2012 - 270
2013 - 332
2014 - 68
2015 - 347
2016 - 306
2017 - 286
2018 - 241
It obviously didn't hurt us much in the grand scheme of things, during that stretch we've gone to 5 Elite Eight's and a Final Four.
A couple of years in the top 100, but usually in the 300's:
2009 - 326
2010 - 309
2011 - 84
2012 - 270
2013 - 332
2014 - 68
2015 - 347
2016 - 306
2017 - 286
2018 - 241
It obviously didn't hurt us much in the grand scheme of things, during that stretch we've gone to 5 Elite Eight's and a Final Four.
Posted on 2/16/18 at 9:52 am to bgator85
I really wish KenPom would put out some Last 10/20/25 game rankings to see how teams are playing over the last month or two.
Alabama had 3-4 really, really ugly performances the first half of the year (La Tech, UCF, Texas, Vandy, Georgia) but haven't really put a stinker on the floor in a while. I'd be curious where last 15 game Alabama compares to others.
Alabama had 3-4 really, really ugly performances the first half of the year (La Tech, UCF, Texas, Vandy, Georgia) but haven't really put a stinker on the floor in a while. I'd be curious where last 15 game Alabama compares to others.
Posted on 2/16/18 at 9:56 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
I really wish KenPom would put out some Last 10/20/25 game rankings to see how teams are playing over the last month or two
That would be great for filling out brackets.
Posted on 2/16/18 at 10:52 am to SummerOfGeorge
That loss to Mizzou at home looked like a stinker to me.
Posted on 2/16/18 at 11:27 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Most unlucky teams
quote:
326. Iowa
Can confirm. They're kind of like Auburn was last year where they're insanely young, their top 7 in minutes are all underclassmen, but they aren't as talented as Auburn's young guys were and this year Big 10 is probably still a little tougher than last years SEC.
They also have some good recruits coming in next season like Auburn had. They'll be making noise in the Big Ten next year, and contending for the conference by 2020.
But their big men, Tyler Cook and Luka Garza I would take on Auburn right now in a heartbeat.
Posted on 2/16/18 at 11:28 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
181. Mississippi State
Too high
See the last two games
Posted on 2/16/18 at 11:54 am to Tuscaloosa
quote:
That loss to Mizzou at home looked like a stinker to me.
We played poorly but we lost a close game to a Top 30 NCAAT team.
Posted on 2/16/18 at 12:01 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
205. Auburn
Wait, BigBlue9Losses told us we were the luckiest team in the country. How could this be?
Posted on 2/16/18 at 12:01 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
We played poorly but we lost a close game to a Top 30 NCAAT team.
Idk man... maybe on paper it wasn’t so bad, but it looked gross. 9 point home loss, and we only managed 60 points against a team that was on a three game losing streak. Shot 35% and let them shoot 53%. A big bag of meh.
Posted on 2/16/18 at 12:02 pm to Tuscaloosa
quote:
Idk man... maybe on paper it wasn’t so bad, but it looked gross. 9 point home loss, and we only managed 60 points against a team that was on a three game losing streak. Shot 35% and let them shoot 53%. A big bag of meh.
Oh it was an ugly performance for sure
Posted on 2/16/18 at 12:10 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Luck
Posted on 2/16/18 at 12:23 pm to rockiee
I thought winning close games was a sign of maturity and good coaching, now its called luck. Interesting
Posted on 2/16/18 at 12:27 pm to lefty08
If my team wins, it's maturity and good coaching.
If my team loses, it's bad luck.
If my team loses, it's bad luck.
Posted on 2/16/18 at 12:27 pm to lefty08
quote:
I thought winning close games was a sign of maturity and good coaching, now its called luck. Interesting
It depends, did my team win or lose?
Posted on 2/16/18 at 1:28 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Would absolutely love to see this stat for football.
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