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Initial vs. Final CFP rankings
Posted on 11/1/19 at 12:20 pm
Posted on 11/1/19 at 12:20 pm
2014.
Initial:
#1 Mississippi State - #7 in final poll
#2 Florida State - #3 in final poll
#3 Auburn - #19 in final poll
#4 Ole Miss - lost in first week ranked, #9 in final poll
#5 Oregon - #2 in final poll
#6 Alabama - #1 in final poll
Final:
#1 Alabama
#2 Oregon
#3 Florida State
#4 Ohio State - #16 in initial poll. NATIONAL CHAMPION
2015
Initial:
#1 Clemson - #1 in final poll
#2 LSU - lost in first week ranked, finished #20
#3 Ohio State - Ranked #7 in final poll
#4 Alabama - #2 in final poll
#5 Notre Dame - #8 in final poll
#6 Baylor - #17 in final poll
Final:
#1 Clemson
#2 Alabama - NATIONAL CHAMPION
#3 Michigan State - #7 in initial poll
#4 Oklahoma - #15 in initial poll
2016
#1 Alabama
#2 Clemson
#3 Michigan - #6 in final poll
#4 Texas A&M - Lost in first week ranked. Unranked in final poll
#5 Washington - #4 in final poll
#6 Ohio State - #3 in final poll
Final
#1 Alabama
#2 Clemson - NATIONAL CHAMPION
#3 Ohio State
#4 Washington
2017
Initial
#1 Georgia - #3 in final poll
#2 Alabama - #4 in final poll
#3 Notre Dame - #14 in final poll
#4 Clemson - #1 in final poll
#5 Oklahoma - #2 in final poll
#6 Ohio State - #5 in final poll
Final
#1 Clemson
#2 Oklahoma
#3 Georgia
#4 Alabama - NATIONAL CHAMPION
2018
Initial
#1 Alabama
#2 Clemson
#3 LSU - Lost in first week ranked, #11 in final poll
#4 Notre Dame - #3 in final poll
#5 Michigan - #7 in final poll
#6 Georgia - #5 in final poll
Final
#1 Alabama
#2 Clemson - NATIONAL CHAMPION
#3 Notre Dame
#4 Oklahoma - #7 in initial poll
What does this mean?
1. No team that lost their first game after being ranked in the CFP poll has ever made the playoffs.
If history holds, that eliminates the LSU/Alabama loser from the playoffs this season
2. No team ranked #1 in the initial CFP poll has ever won the National Championship. This is why we hope Ohio State is ranked #1 this coming Tuesday.
Initial:
#1 Mississippi State - #7 in final poll
#2 Florida State - #3 in final poll
#3 Auburn - #19 in final poll
#4 Ole Miss - lost in first week ranked, #9 in final poll
#5 Oregon - #2 in final poll
#6 Alabama - #1 in final poll
Final:
#1 Alabama
#2 Oregon
#3 Florida State
#4 Ohio State - #16 in initial poll. NATIONAL CHAMPION
2015
Initial:
#1 Clemson - #1 in final poll
#2 LSU - lost in first week ranked, finished #20
#3 Ohio State - Ranked #7 in final poll
#4 Alabama - #2 in final poll
#5 Notre Dame - #8 in final poll
#6 Baylor - #17 in final poll
Final:
#1 Clemson
#2 Alabama - NATIONAL CHAMPION
#3 Michigan State - #7 in initial poll
#4 Oklahoma - #15 in initial poll
2016
#1 Alabama
#2 Clemson
#3 Michigan - #6 in final poll
#4 Texas A&M - Lost in first week ranked. Unranked in final poll
#5 Washington - #4 in final poll
#6 Ohio State - #3 in final poll
Final
#1 Alabama
#2 Clemson - NATIONAL CHAMPION
#3 Ohio State
#4 Washington
2017
Initial
#1 Georgia - #3 in final poll
#2 Alabama - #4 in final poll
#3 Notre Dame - #14 in final poll
#4 Clemson - #1 in final poll
#5 Oklahoma - #2 in final poll
#6 Ohio State - #5 in final poll
Final
#1 Clemson
#2 Oklahoma
#3 Georgia
#4 Alabama - NATIONAL CHAMPION
2018
Initial
#1 Alabama
#2 Clemson
#3 LSU - Lost in first week ranked, #11 in final poll
#4 Notre Dame - #3 in final poll
#5 Michigan - #7 in final poll
#6 Georgia - #5 in final poll
Final
#1 Alabama
#2 Clemson - NATIONAL CHAMPION
#3 Notre Dame
#4 Oklahoma - #7 in initial poll
What does this mean?
1. No team that lost their first game after being ranked in the CFP poll has ever made the playoffs.
If history holds, that eliminates the LSU/Alabama loser from the playoffs this season
2. No team ranked #1 in the initial CFP poll has ever won the National Championship. This is why we hope Ohio State is ranked #1 this coming Tuesday.
This post was edited on 11/1/19 at 12:22 pm
2
Posted on 11/1/19 at 12:26 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
In 2017, both Alabama and Georgia lost after the initial poll but still made the playoff. So it is possible to lose to a highly ranked team late in the season and still make it.
Posted on 11/1/19 at 12:26 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
quote:
#4 Texas A&M - Lost in first week ranked. Unranked in final poll
Funniest thing an Aggie ever admitted.
Posted on 11/1/19 at 12:29 pm to Decker
quote:
In 2017, both Alabama and Georgia lost after the initial poll but still made the playoff. So it is possible to lose to a highly ranked team late in the season and still make it.
Key part in bold. None of those losses took place the same week they were ranked in the initial poll.
Posted on 11/1/19 at 12:31 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
True, but “never in the history of” loses a lot of its meaning when that history is only a 5-year sample size.
This post was edited on 11/1/19 at 12:32 pm
Posted on 11/1/19 at 12:36 pm to 00 Tech Grad
quote:
True, but “never in the history of” loses a lot of its meaning when that history is only a 5-year sample size.
Agreed. One season, a team will go wall to wall #1 in the CFP poll. One season, a team will take a loss in their initial ranking week and come back to make the playoffs.
Until it happens, it's more likely not to.
It took 128 tries for a 16 seed to beat a 1. 16 seeds are still 1-131 against 1 seeds.
This post was edited on 11/1/19 at 12:38 pm
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