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How many touchdowns does Tua throw next year?

Posted on 1/11/18 at 8:21 am
Posted by Master of Sinanju
Member since Feb 2012
11308 posts
Posted on 1/11/18 at 8:21 am
What are the board's thoughts, now that his stock is probably higher than it ever will be?

For reference:

The NCAA record is 58.

Drew Lock threw for 44 last year.

The Alabama record is 30 by AJ McCarron.

Hurts threw for 23 in his freshman year and 17 this year.

Tua threw for 11 this year.

I'm going to guess 28, equalling Blake Sims in 2014.
Posted by DonaldDuckworth
Florida
Member since Jul 2017
1508 posts
Posted on 1/11/18 at 8:22 am to
A lot. The other thing is, can you imagine what this is going to do for the Alabama running game? Jesus. They finna eat
Posted by DuncanIdaho
Ouray, CO
Member since Feb 2013
14970 posts
Posted on 1/11/18 at 8:23 am to
Are they set with WR?
Posted by mistaken4193
Member since Jan 2017
25481 posts
Posted on 1/11/18 at 8:23 am to
30-35. Bamas offense next year returns everyone but Bozeman and Ridley. Unreal.
Posted by Buckeye06
Member since Dec 2007
23106 posts
Posted on 1/11/18 at 8:23 am to
I think something like 35. Nothing crazy but a good number. Probably won't be throwing the ball like Lock was in the 4th quarter much
Posted by Dawgfan77
BoogerBottom
Member since Jul 2013
867 posts
Posted on 1/11/18 at 8:23 am to
Harris will be s big factor behind that great O line that they have, so he will not have to throw it like Lock did.

I will say 25 to 30. Kid is a baller.
Posted by VivaZapata27
Natchez, Ms
Member since Apr 2013
3573 posts
Posted on 1/11/18 at 8:23 am to
Depends on how many times Alabama gets down two scores in a game and allows him to throw. I’ll say a 1.5 td per game average. 25-30
Posted by Motengator
Central Texas
Member since Feb 2013
1357 posts
Posted on 1/11/18 at 8:25 am to
Posted by TTsTowel
RIP Bow9den/Coastie
Member since Feb 2010
91640 posts
Posted on 1/11/18 at 8:41 am to
35 +
Posted by Teague
The Shoals, AL
Member since Aug 2007
21668 posts
Posted on 1/11/18 at 8:44 am to
Posted by BTide
Member since Dec 2016
252 posts
Posted on 1/11/18 at 8:48 am to
quote:

Are they set with WR?


I would say (I assume along with most Alabama fans) we should be overall better at WR next year. The Ridley loss will hurt, but Foster and Sims never really seemed as good as the trio of freshmen: Jeudy, Ruggs, and Smith.

Plus Irv Smith seems like a solid receiving TE, and Damien Harris and Josh Jacobs are both good receiving threats from the HB position
Posted by elposter
Member since Dec 2010
24856 posts
Posted on 1/11/18 at 8:53 am to
quote:

The Alabama record is 30 by AJ McCarron.


If he is healthy, he could break this but probably not by much.

This is still Saban's Alabama team which means a lot of rushing TDs and if the game is out of hand then you'll see either (1) running the ball to shorten the game or (2) the back up QB being the one throwing any fourth quarter TDs. You aren't going to see the starter padding passing TDs stats very often. Over 30 is a big number at Bama (obviously since 30 is the all time record). To hit huge numbers approaching 40+ you probably have a bad defense and are constantly in shootouts with the starter slinging to the end of the game.

I'll say 32 if he starts every game.
Posted by Rhino5
Atlanta
Member since Nov 2014
28897 posts
Posted on 1/11/18 at 8:53 am to
I'm not looking forward to it. This is all Georgia's fault. If they would've let Hurts have a tad bit of succes, then Tua doesn't comes in and possibly transfers. Now we have 3 years of Tua. Thanks a lot dawgs
Posted by bayou85
Concordia
Member since Sep 2016
8605 posts
Posted on 1/11/18 at 8:54 am to
142 to match the number of Alabama National Titles
Posted by Eli Goldfinger
Member since Sep 2016
32785 posts
Posted on 1/11/18 at 9:01 am to
quote:

Are they set with WR?


Bama has recruited well at WR on paper, but Hurts only threw to Ridley, so we tealy don’t know. I have to think it’s a solid group though.
Posted by Crimson Wraith
Member since Jan 2014
24717 posts
Posted on 1/11/18 at 9:03 am to
42 or so. He'll run for some as well.

Saban usually runs the ball a lot to bleed the clock once the games are decided so that will hurt his numbers some.

He did let Tua get some passing experience this year though in mop-up time as the back-up.


Posted by Bench McElroy
Member since Nov 2009
33919 posts
Posted on 1/11/18 at 9:07 am to
Probably around 20-25. Tua's TD numbers won't be gawdy at all. Bama has too many talented running backs who will vulture a lot of TDs when they are in the red zone. The major difference will be the efficiency. McCarron was a very good QB because he was very efficient. Bama was ranked in the teens in 3rd down conversion percentage all three years he was the starter. I expect a similar ranking next year with Tua. There will also be fewer sacks given up. Bama was ranked 70th in sacks allowed in 2017 even they were only ranked 89th in overall attempts. That's because Hurts had very poor pocket presence and often held on to the ball way too long. Tua will do a much better job avoiding sacks because he's much quicker making reads and he's also better at eluding the pass rush.
Posted by Sneaky__Sally
Member since Jul 2015
12364 posts
Posted on 1/11/18 at 9:07 am to
27
Posted by Crimson Wraith
Member since Jan 2014
24717 posts
Posted on 1/11/18 at 9:10 am to
quote:

trio of freshmen: Jeudy, Ruggs, and Smith.


Shavers was the #12 receiver in their recruiting class and he RS'ed this year. 6'6" tall too.
Posted by DawgsLife
Member since Jun 2013
58902 posts
Posted on 1/11/18 at 9:15 am to
quote:

The Alabama record is 30 by AJ McCarron.


I doubt he throws more than this his whole career. It just isn't in Alabama's DNA to throw the ball around a lot. I mean, he is capable, sure. I just don't think Alabama will throw it enough.

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