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How dominant is the SEC in football? Numbers don’t lie...
Posted on 1/21/20 at 4:34 pm
Posted on 1/21/20 at 4:34 pm
During the build-up to the CFP and NCG, much debate was had regarding conference strength and how (if at all) it should factor in to the playoff selection process.
Some argued that a team should win its conference to be included in the playoff. Others pointed out that not all conference championships are equal.
Clemson fans pointed out repeatedly the SEC’s bowl record of 17-19 from 2016-2018, arguing that the conference is in decline and no longer the powerhouse it was earlier this century.
Leaving opinions aside, let’s take a look at the facts regarding conference strength.
The SEC’s all-time record in bowl games is 261-195-9 (57.1%). This is the highest win percentage of any current FBS conference.
The only other P5 conference with a winning bowl record is the PAC 12.
P5 Conference Bowl Records (All-Time)
Conference | Wins | Losses | Ties | Win %
SEC - 261-195-9 (.571)
ACC - 132-140-2 (.485)
BIG 12 - 84-88-0 (.488)
B1G - 143-163-1 (.467)
PAC 12 - 149-136-5 (.522)
As you can see, the PAC 12 is the only other “Power 5” conference with a winning bowl record.
The SEC’s bowl record is actually better over the course of the past 25 years than it is all-time. Since 1995, the SEC is 129-85 in bowl games, winning 60.2% of bowl games during that span.
SEC All-Time vs. Other Conferences (current conferences)
Conference | SEC Wins | SEC Losses | Ties | SEC Win % | 2019 SEC Record vs Conference
SEC vs:
ACC - 319-171-10 (.648) - 8-4
AAC - 19-8-0 (.704) - 1-1
B1G - 96-65-2 (.595) 2-2
BIG 12 - 98-79-6 (.552) 5-1
CUSA - 158-28 (.849) 4-1
MAC - 98-14 (.875) 4-0
Mountain West - 25-11 (.694) 2-3
PAC 12 - 74-43-5 (.627) 1-1
Sun Belt - 154-11 (.933) - 5-2
Looking at SEC schools’ non-conference records is another good metric to gauge the conference’s strength.
SEC Schools’ All-Time Non-Conference Records (current members only)
School | Wins | Losses | Ties | Non-Conference Win % | Total Win % (Includes conference games)
Bama - 306-74-6 (.801), (.750)
LSU - 306-89-11 (.767), (.662)
Tennessee - 313-85-9 (.780), (.679)
A&M - 34-6 (.850), (.654)
UGA - 317-98-8 (.759), (.673)
Florida - 227-122-9 (.647), (.631)
Auburn - 279-88-8 (.755), (.632)
Ole Miss - 275-95-8 (.738), (.577)
Mizzou - 28-10-0 (.737), (.569)
Arkansas - 84-34 (.712), (.512)
S Carolina - 81-35-0 (.698), (.525)
Miss State - 225-94-8 (.726), (.502)
Kentucky - 250-110-9 (.690), (.461)
Vandy - 203-127-26 (.607), (.385)
SEC Total N/C Record (current members): 2,928-1067-102 (.727).
As you can see, all 14 SEC member institutions have a higher win % in non-conference games than their overall record factoring in both conference and non-conference games (this is the number in the second set of parentheses above). Every school except Florida has a considerably better win % in non-conference games than their overall record.
Random tidbits:
- LSU is 24-2 all-time versus the ACC.
- Bama is 26-5 versus the ACC.
- Auburn, Georgia and Tennessee all have 70%+ win percentages against the ACC, and all three have played at least 46 games each against ACC opponents.
- Florida State is the only ACC team with a winning record against the SEC.
- The SEC’s overall .589 win % is the highest of any current conference. The B1G is second at .563, followed by the PAC 12 at .551.
- The now-defunct Big East is the only major conference in modern history (maybe ever*) to post a winning record against the SEC. The Big East, which folded in 2012 with members defecting to the ACC, B1G, BIG 12, American and CUSA, posted a 29-25 record (.537) against the SEC between 1991-2012.
- The Big East was/is also one of two conferences to post an all-time winning record against the SEC in bowl games, going 10-8.
- The Mountain West is 2-0 against the SEC in bowl games.
- The SEC is 21-22-2 against non-affiliated (independent) teams all-time in bowl games.
- The MAC is 2-2 (.500) against the SEC in bowl games.
- The SEC is 37-1 against MAC teams since 2010.
- Alabama and Tennessee are both 20-1 all-time versus CUSA opponents, and the conference as a whole is 72-6 since 2010.
- Of the SEC’s 8 all-time losses to teams from the AAC, 4 came against Vandy and Ole Miss
The SEC has a winning bowl record against every other conference (besides the former Big East and Mountain West). SEC bowl records include:
SEC Bowl Records vs. P5 Opponents
-The SEC is 47-29 (.618) against the ACC in bowl games.
- The SEC is 57-32 (.640) against the B1G in bowl games.
- The SEC is 46-36-1 (.560) against the BIG 12 in bowl games.
- The SEC is 9-7-1 (.559) against the PAC 12 in bowl games.
The SEC is 682-304-23 (.687) all-time against teams unaffiliated with any conference (Independents) at the time the game was played.
Conclusions
Taking into account the data listed above, the SEC is the strongest of any Division 1, FBS football conference. In fact, the SEC has been the strongest major football conference for virtually all of its existence.
The data suggests that if the playoff committee’s true objective is to select the four “best” teams, eliminating any school from consideration that failed to win its conference is a fallacy, and would inevitably result in inferior conference champs being selected over one or more “better” teams that did not win its/their respective conference(s).
With the SEC holding a winning record both overall and in bowl games against every other “Power 5” conference, it’s not a stretch to assume that in a given year, an SEC team with an equal record to a team from any other conference in all probability had to navigate a far more difficult schedule to achieve said record.
Does this mean the SEC team is “better?” Not necessarily. However, the data does imply that it’s a distinct possibility if not a strong probability.
It also suggests that “weak” SEC teams would likely finish with a better record if they played in a different conference. Look at Vanderbilt for example. Vandy has an all-time .385 record in conference. They have a .500 all-time bowl record, and a .607 total non-conference win percentage.
Vandy’s .607 non-conference record is the lowest among current SEC teams. 10 teams have all-time non-conference win percentages over .700, with two others at .690 and .698.
No current conference has a winning record against the SEC, and no conference has a winning bowl record that has played more than two bowl games against SEC opponents.
The SEC is the strongest and best conference in D1, FBS college football, and it isn’t remotely close. There is no debate to be had, the numbers speak for themselves.
My opinion is that in a given year, there are anywhere from 1-to-5 SEC teams that did not (past seasons) or will not (future seasons) be selected for the playoff that would likely have been selected if they played in any other conference.
Florida, Georgia and Alabama are all examples of this from the 2019 season. I personally think all three would beat Oklahoma and more times than not if they played ten times on a neutral field. One of more of the three likely would have been undefeated had they played Clemson’s schedule, and would have been playoff teams if they played in the ACC or PAC 12.
*** All data used in this post was sourced from the following websites:
- Mcubed.net
- Sports-Reference.com
- Win % calculations were made using GoodCalculators.com
Some argued that a team should win its conference to be included in the playoff. Others pointed out that not all conference championships are equal.
Clemson fans pointed out repeatedly the SEC’s bowl record of 17-19 from 2016-2018, arguing that the conference is in decline and no longer the powerhouse it was earlier this century.
Leaving opinions aside, let’s take a look at the facts regarding conference strength.
The SEC’s all-time record in bowl games is 261-195-9 (57.1%). This is the highest win percentage of any current FBS conference.
The only other P5 conference with a winning bowl record is the PAC 12.
P5 Conference Bowl Records (All-Time)
Conference | Wins | Losses | Ties | Win %
SEC - 261-195-9 (.571)
ACC - 132-140-2 (.485)
BIG 12 - 84-88-0 (.488)
B1G - 143-163-1 (.467)
PAC 12 - 149-136-5 (.522)
As you can see, the PAC 12 is the only other “Power 5” conference with a winning bowl record.
The SEC’s bowl record is actually better over the course of the past 25 years than it is all-time. Since 1995, the SEC is 129-85 in bowl games, winning 60.2% of bowl games during that span.
SEC All-Time vs. Other Conferences (current conferences)
Conference | SEC Wins | SEC Losses | Ties | SEC Win % | 2019 SEC Record vs Conference
SEC vs:
ACC - 319-171-10 (.648) - 8-4
AAC - 19-8-0 (.704) - 1-1
B1G - 96-65-2 (.595) 2-2
BIG 12 - 98-79-6 (.552) 5-1
CUSA - 158-28 (.849) 4-1
MAC - 98-14 (.875) 4-0
Mountain West - 25-11 (.694) 2-3
PAC 12 - 74-43-5 (.627) 1-1
Sun Belt - 154-11 (.933) - 5-2
Looking at SEC schools’ non-conference records is another good metric to gauge the conference’s strength.
SEC Schools’ All-Time Non-Conference Records (current members only)
School | Wins | Losses | Ties | Non-Conference Win % | Total Win % (Includes conference games)
Bama - 306-74-6 (.801), (.750)
LSU - 306-89-11 (.767), (.662)
Tennessee - 313-85-9 (.780), (.679)
A&M - 34-6 (.850), (.654)
UGA - 317-98-8 (.759), (.673)
Florida - 227-122-9 (.647), (.631)
Auburn - 279-88-8 (.755), (.632)
Ole Miss - 275-95-8 (.738), (.577)
Mizzou - 28-10-0 (.737), (.569)
Arkansas - 84-34 (.712), (.512)
S Carolina - 81-35-0 (.698), (.525)
Miss State - 225-94-8 (.726), (.502)
Kentucky - 250-110-9 (.690), (.461)
Vandy - 203-127-26 (.607), (.385)
SEC Total N/C Record (current members): 2,928-1067-102 (.727).
As you can see, all 14 SEC member institutions have a higher win % in non-conference games than their overall record factoring in both conference and non-conference games (this is the number in the second set of parentheses above). Every school except Florida has a considerably better win % in non-conference games than their overall record.
Random tidbits:
- LSU is 24-2 all-time versus the ACC.
- Bama is 26-5 versus the ACC.
- Auburn, Georgia and Tennessee all have 70%+ win percentages against the ACC, and all three have played at least 46 games each against ACC opponents.
- Florida State is the only ACC team with a winning record against the SEC.
- The SEC’s overall .589 win % is the highest of any current conference. The B1G is second at .563, followed by the PAC 12 at .551.
- The now-defunct Big East is the only major conference in modern history (maybe ever*) to post a winning record against the SEC. The Big East, which folded in 2012 with members defecting to the ACC, B1G, BIG 12, American and CUSA, posted a 29-25 record (.537) against the SEC between 1991-2012.
- The Big East was/is also one of two conferences to post an all-time winning record against the SEC in bowl games, going 10-8.
- The Mountain West is 2-0 against the SEC in bowl games.
- The SEC is 21-22-2 against non-affiliated (independent) teams all-time in bowl games.
- The MAC is 2-2 (.500) against the SEC in bowl games.
- The SEC is 37-1 against MAC teams since 2010.
- Alabama and Tennessee are both 20-1 all-time versus CUSA opponents, and the conference as a whole is 72-6 since 2010.
- Of the SEC’s 8 all-time losses to teams from the AAC, 4 came against Vandy and Ole Miss
The SEC has a winning bowl record against every other conference (besides the former Big East and Mountain West). SEC bowl records include:
SEC Bowl Records vs. P5 Opponents
-The SEC is 47-29 (.618) against the ACC in bowl games.
- The SEC is 57-32 (.640) against the B1G in bowl games.
- The SEC is 46-36-1 (.560) against the BIG 12 in bowl games.
- The SEC is 9-7-1 (.559) against the PAC 12 in bowl games.
The SEC is 682-304-23 (.687) all-time against teams unaffiliated with any conference (Independents) at the time the game was played.
Conclusions
Taking into account the data listed above, the SEC is the strongest of any Division 1, FBS football conference. In fact, the SEC has been the strongest major football conference for virtually all of its existence.
The data suggests that if the playoff committee’s true objective is to select the four “best” teams, eliminating any school from consideration that failed to win its conference is a fallacy, and would inevitably result in inferior conference champs being selected over one or more “better” teams that did not win its/their respective conference(s).
With the SEC holding a winning record both overall and in bowl games against every other “Power 5” conference, it’s not a stretch to assume that in a given year, an SEC team with an equal record to a team from any other conference in all probability had to navigate a far more difficult schedule to achieve said record.
Does this mean the SEC team is “better?” Not necessarily. However, the data does imply that it’s a distinct possibility if not a strong probability.
It also suggests that “weak” SEC teams would likely finish with a better record if they played in a different conference. Look at Vanderbilt for example. Vandy has an all-time .385 record in conference. They have a .500 all-time bowl record, and a .607 total non-conference win percentage.
Vandy’s .607 non-conference record is the lowest among current SEC teams. 10 teams have all-time non-conference win percentages over .700, with two others at .690 and .698.
No current conference has a winning record against the SEC, and no conference has a winning bowl record that has played more than two bowl games against SEC opponents.
The SEC is the strongest and best conference in D1, FBS college football, and it isn’t remotely close. There is no debate to be had, the numbers speak for themselves.
My opinion is that in a given year, there are anywhere from 1-to-5 SEC teams that did not (past seasons) or will not (future seasons) be selected for the playoff that would likely have been selected if they played in any other conference.
Florida, Georgia and Alabama are all examples of this from the 2019 season. I personally think all three would beat Oklahoma and more times than not if they played ten times on a neutral field. One of more of the three likely would have been undefeated had they played Clemson’s schedule, and would have been playoff teams if they played in the ACC or PAC 12.
*** All data used in this post was sourced from the following websites:
- Mcubed.net
- Sports-Reference.com
- Win % calculations were made using GoodCalculators.com
This post was edited on 1/21/20 at 11:30 pm
15
Posted on 1/21/20 at 4:46 pm to Philippines4LSU
Bookmark this for next year when Clemson, OSU, UCF and whatever BIG 12 or PAC 12 fans flood the board and start beating their chests.
Posted on 1/21/20 at 4:55 pm to Philippines4LSU
So the SEC is as good as the Pac-12.
Congratulations.
Congratulations.
Posted on 1/21/20 at 5:00 pm to DisplacedBuckeye
I didn’t look up PAC 12 vs B1G overall or bowl records. Does the PAC 12 dominate the B1G too?
Posted on 1/21/20 at 5:01 pm to DisplacedBuckeye
And the Big Ten is worse. Congrats to you too!
Posted on 1/21/20 at 5:19 pm to Philippines4LSU
Plus our bowl matchups are skewed. The 6th SEC team will play the 4th ACC team making our dominance even more compelling.
Posted on 1/21/20 at 5:19 pm to OleManDixon
I always thought the SEC was the strongest conference, but I was genuinely surprised by how wide the gap really is, particularly with the B1G and ACC.
Another thing that surprised me was that the SEC dominance didn’t start in the late 90’s or early 2000’s like I had always assumed. It’s been that way a lot longer than my lifetime (I’m late 30’s).
In fact, there is a strong argument and a lot of data to support the claim that the gap between the SEC and everyone else was wider 25+ years ago than it is today or has been for the past quarter-century.
Another thing that surprised me was that the SEC dominance didn’t start in the late 90’s or early 2000’s like I had always assumed. It’s been that way a lot longer than my lifetime (I’m late 30’s).
In fact, there is a strong argument and a lot of data to support the claim that the gap between the SEC and everyone else was wider 25+ years ago than it is today or has been for the past quarter-century.
Posted on 1/21/20 at 5:26 pm to rebelrouser
I’m almost certain that your claim is true. In fact, I believe a convincing majority of SEC teams play in bowl games every year against teams that finished higher in their conference.
It’s tough to quantify what that means but I think it’s a huge deal that goes largely ignored by media types.
ETA Someone please compile at the stats for me and post them. TIA.
It’s tough to quantify what that means but I think it’s a huge deal that goes largely ignored by media types.
ETA Someone please compile at the stats for me and post them. TIA.
This post was edited on 1/21/20 at 5:28 pm
Posted on 1/21/20 at 5:27 pm to rebelrouser
quote:
Plus our bowl matchups are skewed. The 6th SEC team will play the 4th ACC team making our dominance even more compelling.
I tried explaining this to some Clemson fans. Their response was to figuratively stick their fingers in their ears and shout, “LA LA LA, I CAN’T HEAR YOU!!”
They’re still shellshocked and trying to rationalize what happened 01/13 with no regard for the opponent (the old, “we beat ourselves” shtick).
We tried to tell them...
This post was edited on 1/21/20 at 5:27 pm
Posted on 1/21/20 at 5:32 pm to DisplacedBuckeye
quote:
So the SEC is as good as the Pac-12.
Or better if you cared to read. And better than everyone else, again if you cared to read
This post was edited on 1/21/20 at 5:33 pm
Posted on 1/21/20 at 5:34 pm to Philippines4LSU
Can you put together CliffsNotes for the Premium members?
Posted on 1/21/20 at 5:38 pm to Philippines4LSU
Who cares.
Ohio State is 23-13-3 against SEC teams.
Ohio State is 23-13-3 against SEC teams.
Posted on 1/21/20 at 5:39 pm to lsufball19
Let me know when you're an A1abama fan. They're the only top tier SEC school.
Posted on 1/21/20 at 5:41 pm to OleManDixon
quote:
OleManDixon
quote:
Kentucky fan
quote:
SEC in football
Quiet.
Posted on 1/21/20 at 5:45 pm to Philippines4LSU
Those numbers are more impressive when you consider that the bowls generally match up SEC teams lower on the conference totem poll with other conference’s better teams.
Many of the lower tier bowls are games like 3-5 in conference Kentucky defeating 5-3 in conference Virginia Tech.
Many of the lower tier bowls are games like 3-5 in conference Kentucky defeating 5-3 in conference Virginia Tech.
Posted on 1/21/20 at 6:04 pm to 1BIGTigerFan
quote:
Can you put together CliffsNotes for the Premium members?
Just stop reading when you reach the part where it says “Conclusions” in bold. Everything (or most everything, have to double-check) after that is opinion.
Everything before that save for the first couple of introductory paragraphs is factual, and the purpose is to put an end to any and all debate over conference strength.
It seems that every year come playoff time pundits and fans discuss and debate this. What the numbers reveal is that there’s no debate unless the debate is over which conference is second-best.
I just wanted to accumulate all of the relevant data in one place for reference when this inevitably comes up in the future.
Posted on 1/21/20 at 6:10 pm to DisplacedBuckeye
quote:
So the SEC is as good as the Pac-12.
Much better actually.
quote:
Congratulations.
STTDBuckeyeB
Posted on 1/21/20 at 6:10 pm to Philippines4LSU
quote:
not all conference championships are equal.
They absolutely aren't, and should never be treated as if they are.
quote:
Some argued that a team should win its conference to be included in the playoff.
Anyone who says this is a goddamn imbecile. And should be banned. At this point in time, NO Big 12 or PAC 12 conference champ deserves an automatic bid, although Oregon looks like they might be building a powerhouse.
This post was edited on 1/21/20 at 6:15 pm
Posted on 1/21/20 at 6:16 pm to Philippines4LSU
quote:
Philippines4LSU
Also, isn't this more of a BHMKyle post?
Posted on 1/21/20 at 6:24 pm to Evolved Simian
quote:
Evolved Simian
I agree with your first post. If I was on the committee, I would have had a hard time excluding both Bama and Florida from the playoff. Ultimately I’d have probably voted for Bama (not that I’d want LSU to have to play Bama again, but if we’re being honest, that’s probably who I choose as that fourth team).
Not sure about that Kyle fellow. I recognize the name from on here, but I don’t remember any specifics about him except that he’s a Georgia fan. I couldn’t tell you anything about his posting style.
This post was edited on 1/21/20 at 6:25 pm
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