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Georgia vs Florida - Preview, Prediction, & Computer Model -
Posted on 10/26/21 at 5:53 pm
Posted on 10/26/21 at 5:53 pm
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UGA. 29. >. UF 18
quote:
Georgia's coming into the cocktail party #1 while Florida is reeling from the LSU loss. Will Stetson Bennett be QB1 in this game or will we see the return of JT Daniels? Will Brock Bowers continue impressing in this UGA offense and find another gear?
UGA. 29. >. UF 18
7
Posted on 10/26/21 at 6:03 pm to Blizzard bob
Damn that sucks
Well guess I don't have to watch the game now
Well guess I don't have to watch the game now
Posted on 10/26/21 at 6:05 pm to jonnyanony
Yeah you probably shouldn’t
Posted on 10/26/21 at 6:05 pm to jonnyanony
I havent watched the video. But those guys are morons.
Their per play predictions are off by 25-40% all in one direction. They get the score correct and claim that their model is a success. Lol
Their per play predictions are off by 25-40% all in one direction. They get the score correct and claim that their model is a success. Lol
Posted on 10/26/21 at 6:37 pm to meansonny
Watch the video and your tune will change.
Posted on 10/26/21 at 6:40 pm to Blizzard bob
These guys literally said we should stick with Emory because we will need a QB who can make quick reads in the pocket and be a vertical passing threat rofl.
Clearly they have lost all credibility.
Clearly they have lost all credibility.
Posted on 10/26/21 at 6:41 pm to Blizzard bob
quote:
Watch the video and your tune will change.
It won't. I just watched meansonny write a dissertation on this earlier today on another board.
Posted on 10/26/21 at 6:41 pm to Blizzard bob
No way Georgia scores 18. 
Maybe 10
Maybe 10
Posted on 10/26/21 at 6:46 pm to Blizzard bob
Margin too small
Posted on 10/26/21 at 7:03 pm to Blizzard bob
No Summer of George computer predictor, no care.
Posted on 10/26/21 at 8:26 pm to kywildcatfanone
quote:
No way Georgia scores 18. Maybe 10
Since they predicted Florida would score 18 I am assuming that is what you meant, too?
Or did you think Georgia would only score 10?
Posted on 10/26/21 at 11:30 pm to DawgsLife
Statistically the computer equates 16 as near zero because it’s improbable to predict that a team will score less than 16 points because of broken plays, interceptions, fumbles and the like.
The computer is usually lower and closer than most human predictions. It’s all explained in the video and both of the guys give their predictions in reference to the computer model presented.
The video explains all that, but meansonny doesn’t have time for whipper snapper analysis I guess…
The computer is usually lower and closer than most human predictions. It’s all explained in the video and both of the guys give their predictions in reference to the computer model presented.
The video explains all that, but meansonny doesn’t have time for whipper snapper analysis I guess…
Posted on 10/27/21 at 6:50 am to Blizzard bob
That computer needs to be reprogrammed apparently.
Posted on 10/27/21 at 6:54 am to Blizzard bob
quote:
Watch the video and your tune will change.
It really won't. The guys consistently defend results as proof that the "model" works, when the actual process to get there is wildly incorrect. For a "stats" based podcast, they pretty much ignore what the model says about the actual stats and just rely on the result it spits out, *then* don't use that score and simply adjust based on what they "feel". Then, if it's wrong, they handwave, and if it's right (about any part of the game...) then the model was "dead on". They're entertaining enough, but outside of that, it's not really something that you should waste much time/energy on. Too much better content out there.
Posted on 10/27/21 at 6:57 am to Blizzard bob
quote:I already explained it elsewhere.
but meansonny doesn’t have time for whipper snapper analysis I guess
I will give you a copy/paste since i dont have time.
quote:
(regarding Kentucky playing ball control at the end of the game) daniel said that he expected the opposite. Everyone has so much respect for stoops, no one expected him to throw in the towel and give up on the victory. Daniel followed that up that if he did try to save face and just play ball control, that would be a reason they cover. You cant give him credit when he explicitly states one thing but backdoors an excuse.
Daniel also said that the UGA run game underperforms and will continue against kentucky.
Josh said that UGA will struggle to get 30.
Here is why they are liars:
Their model is built on per play averages. It takes those averages and measures them against team capabilities and spits out a score.
When they get a score near correct, but the averages couldnt be more wrong... that does not merit a victory lap like they are taking on the kentucky game. That is dumb luck and a stats based podcast should know better.
Kentucky projected rush/attempt:3.11 (and they claim that is successful enough to give UGA problems).
Actual rush/attempt: 1.88
They are off by 39%
Kentucky projected pass/attempt: 6.4 (good defenses cannot effect a passing game as well according to them. Kentucky was averaging 8.4 y/a throwing coming into the game).
Actual pass/attempt:4.57
They are off by 28%
Kentucky projected yard/play: 4.5
Actual yard/play: 3.52
They are off by 21%
UGA projected rush/attempt: 3.51
Actual rush/attempt: 6.14
Off by 42%
UGA projected pass/attempt: 7.93
Actual pass/attempt: 12.5
Off by 36%
UGA projected yards per play 5.44
Actual yards per play: 8.85
Off by 38%
Plug those actual numbers in their model and see what their score prediction comes to. That is how their model is supposed to pick scores.
Hell... tell josh and daniel the actual per play averages and ask them to pick a score. They wouldnt be close.
Because UGA scored 30 points in only 22 minutes time of possession is why the score finished the way that it did. And no one predicted that. Kentucky came into the game averaging 30:43 possession per game. Georgia came in averaging over 32:26 possession per game.
I would argue that scoring 30 points in just over 22 minutes is quite easy (josh). Give another 5 minutes, and you can probably tack on at least another TD.
Posted on 10/27/21 at 7:06 am to kywildcatfanone
quote:
No way Georgia scores 18. Maybe 10
Wasn't KY's defense supposed to be better than UF's? How'd that work out?
Posted on 10/27/21 at 7:13 am to Blizzard bob
Gators 31 - mutts, ankle biters, leg humpers inbreeds 28
Posted on 10/27/21 at 8:07 am to UFMatt
quote:
Gators 31 - mutts, ankle biters, leg humpers inbreeds 28
Good luck with that jorts waring meth addict.
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