Started By
Message
Florida vs Georgia is a perfect opportunity to compare metrics vs feelings
Posted on 10/31/19 at 10:53 am
Posted on 10/31/19 at 10:53 am
So metrics and advanced analytics have Georgia winning, which is why Georgia is favored. It seems the national "feeling" of the game is Florida wins based on recent performances. This feels like a great way to test out which works better in predicting a game. Metrics have a small flaw in not being able to account for players not playing in some games, so it can't account for USCe losing their QB mid game. It doesn't account for UK playing a WR at QB vs Georgia on the road vs UK playing an actual QB vs UF at home while UF has Franks for three quarters.
Think this is a cool hidden part of the game. I for one do believe in advanced stats, but also understand they sometimes miss things. I do worry for sure that they show Georgia being favored. Just seems like momentum seems to be with UF and like Georgia is still working out a few more kinks.
So which wins? The eye ball and feeling pick, or the advanced metrics pick?
Think this is a cool hidden part of the game. I for one do believe in advanced stats, but also understand they sometimes miss things. I do worry for sure that they show Georgia being favored. Just seems like momentum seems to be with UF and like Georgia is still working out a few more kinks.
So which wins? The eye ball and feeling pick, or the advanced metrics pick?
10
Posted on 10/31/19 at 10:54 am to Gatorbait2008
Way too complicated, UG sux - Gators win.
Posted on 10/31/19 at 10:55 am to UFMatt
Lol fair enough
Posted on 10/31/19 at 11:07 am to Gatorbait2008
quote:
Metrics have a small flaw in not being able to account for players not playing in some games, so it can't account for USCe losing their QB mid game. It doesn't account for UK playing a WR at QB vs Georgia on the road vs UK playing an actual QB vs UF at home while UF has Franks for three quarters.
Looks like you have the same flaw...
Posted on 10/31/19 at 11:10 am to Dawgfanman
What? I can account for those variables and metrics do not. How is that....I'm lost now lol
Posted on 10/31/19 at 11:15 am to Gatorbait2008
He’s gonna tell you that you’re not accounting for UGAs injuries on defense.
Funnily when UF fans point out that UF was missing its top 3 secondary players against UGA last year, UGA fans said get more depth
It’s okay if UGA has injuries, not UF
Funnily when UF fans point out that UF was missing its top 3 secondary players against UGA last year, UGA fans said get more depth
It’s okay if UGA has injuries, not UF
Posted on 10/31/19 at 11:18 am to Gatorbait2008
quote:
Metrics have a small flaw in not being able to account for players not playing in some games, so it can't account for USCe losing their QB mid game. It doesn't account for UK playing a WR at QB vs Georgia on the road vs UK playing an actual QB vs UF at home while UF has Franks for three quarters.
Player injuries generally balance out in statistics when the game sample size is high enough. UGA has been missing the go to WR in Cager since halfway through the SC game (coincidentally when our offense went to shite). Additionally, it doesn't take into account torrential downpour where having a WR at QB doesn't really factor in as much. I could list a multitude of other injuries across the OL & DL that UGA has been dealing with that we are getting back. At the end of the day, it doesn't matter. All teams have issues throughout the year - it balances out.
More likely the reason advanced analytics is favoring UGA is because we run the ball well and probably have the edge at the LOS on both sides of the ball with a deeper talent level.
To me this is a game that compares 2 radically different styles of coaching in CFB. Can Mullen scheme his way into a win against a coach that relies on assembling more superior blue-chip talent? If he can, that doesn't bode well for Kirby long term unless he goes out and hires an OC that he lets run the show on that side of the ball (like Orgeron did).
This post was edited on 10/31/19 at 11:26 am
Posted on 10/31/19 at 11:23 am to boXerrumble
quote:
He’s gonna tell you that you’re not accounting for UGAs injuries on defense. Funnily when UF fans point out that UF was missing its top 3 secondary players against UGA last year, UGA fans said get more depth It’s okay if UGA has injuries, not UF
He’s not even accounting for UK injuries vs UF, SC injuries, and a thousand other variables. You and him have both tried to pretend you are taking an unbiased look, when in fact it’s nothing but biased
Posted on 10/31/19 at 11:28 am to Dawgfanman
Like you’re not biased either?
Georgia fans are so insecure about Florida fans confidence in this game. They know who the big bad wolf in the East is
Georgia fans are so insecure about Florida fans confidence in this game. They know who the big bad wolf in the East is
Posted on 10/31/19 at 11:30 am to atlgator
quote:
Like you’re not biased either? Georgia fans are so insecure about Florida fans confidence in this game. They know who the big bad wolf in the East is
If course I’m biased, know what isn’t? Metrics...that’s my whole point for those trying to talk about how wrong they are and using their biased bullshite to try and prove it.
Posted on 10/31/19 at 11:33 am to Gatorbait2008
Metrics are overrated as frick in college football.
Posted on 10/31/19 at 11:40 am to Gatorbait2008
quote:
This feels like a great way to test out which works better in predicting a game.
One data point is never a good way to determine which is better.
Posted on 10/31/19 at 11:41 am to Dawgfanman
It’s a fair critique to say that metrics don’t take everything into account. And, in the end, it’s about what happens on the field. Not the metrics or numbers or anything else
Posted on 10/31/19 at 11:42 am to atlgator
quote:
It’s a fair critique to say that metrics don’t take everything into account.
Neither do “feelings.”
Posted on 10/31/19 at 11:43 am to Fats
Agree on the line. I did see USCe start to get some pressure on Fromm so I'm hoping Greenard and Zuniga can do the same. Our Oline is obviously a big flaw but somehow we have survived and they are improving slowly(pass blocking). Our offense has faced some decently highly rated defenses so I think we can still score 20+ depending on the game flow. Cager being back is def a plus for you, as well as our best play maker being back is for us so I think that balances out.
Posted on 10/31/19 at 11:52 am to Gatorbait2008
quote:
Agree on the line. I did see USCe start to get some pressure on Fromm so I'm hoping Greenard and Zuniga can do the same. Our Oline is obviously a big flaw but somehow we have survived and they are improving slowly(pass blocking). Our offense has faced some decently highly rated defenses so I think we can still score 20+ depending on the game flow. Cager being back is def a plus for you, as well as our best play maker being back is for us so I think that balances out.
If we get Cager (wr), Davis (dt), webb(nickel), Campbell (cb), Kindley(og) all back where they can play a whole game (they’ve missed parts of and whole games last few weeks) we might be a bit better.
I know UF has injuries, I’m sure you are better with your players...your feelings analysis just didn’t mention any injuries for UGA.
Posted on 10/31/19 at 11:55 am to Gatorbait2008
The easiest answer (or gamelock stat) is turnovers.
Whomever wins the turnover battle wins the game.
Whomever wins the turnover battle wins the game.
Posted on 10/31/19 at 11:56 am to Dawgfanman
Yea I heard Cager was back any of the other guys?
I think injuries are a little more key for us because our depth is not near your depth. Our starting 22 is pretty strong outside of Oline, but the back ups because of recruiting aren't nearly the same level. So we are def happy to have the three key players returning for the game and everyone else is generally healthy.
I think injuries are a little more key for us because our depth is not near your depth. Our starting 22 is pretty strong outside of Oline, but the back ups because of recruiting aren't nearly the same level. So we are def happy to have the three key players returning for the game and everyone else is generally healthy.
Posted on 10/31/19 at 11:59 am to Gatorbait2008
You are really upset that Florida is not considered the favorite, aren't you?
You list a lot of things, but fail to mention that our receiving corps has been banged up and missing, along with a lot of other injuries. (Travon Walker, Tyson Campbell, Lawrence Cager just to name three)
But hey....Florida is the only team in the country with injuries.
After the game is played it won't matter who was favored and who was underdog. Relax and stop melting over who is favored.
You list a lot of things, but fail to mention that our receiving corps has been banged up and missing, along with a lot of other injuries. (Travon Walker, Tyson Campbell, Lawrence Cager just to name three)
But hey....Florida is the only team in the country with injuries.
After the game is played it won't matter who was favored and who was underdog. Relax and stop melting over who is favored.
Posted on 10/31/19 at 11:59 am to Gatorbait2008
quote:
Yea I heard Cager was back any of the other guys? I think injuries are a little more key for us because our depth is not near your depth. Our starting 22 is pretty strong outside of Oline, but the back ups because of recruiting aren't nearly the same level. So we are def happy to have the three key players returning for the game and everyone else is generally healthy
The big one for me is Davis and Campbell. I have no idea if they are fully healthy. We don’t have another player like Davis in the DL. I think we found a good OL combo toward the end of the KY game, something that had been a struggle going back to SC. Their Interior DL were owning our guards.
Page 1 of 3
Popular
Back to top
Follow SECRant for SEC Football News