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re: Florida might be 100% fake news
Posted on 10/10/19 at 1:48 pm to GatorsGators
Posted on 10/10/19 at 1:48 pm to GatorsGators
I understand regression to the mean completely. I, too, used to listen to Bill C break down SP+. There were plenty of times when he mentioned something should regress to the mean and at the end of the season he would say that for whatever reason it just didn't happen.
Yeah, typically it does, but sometimes it doesn't.
Yeah, typically it does, but sometimes it doesn't.
1
Posted on 10/10/19 at 1:49 pm to GatorsGators
quote:
We're underrated at this point.
Posted on 10/10/19 at 1:52 pm to ReauxlTide222
quote:This is the quintessential 10 win florida team we have seen a handful of times over the past decade
You really don’t think UF fans are wildly overhyping the team?
Look like an ok team, win with defense, win close conference games, win ugly. Win one game they weren't suppose too (Auburn) Lose one they are not suppose to (My guess is mizzou), get beat by Georgia..end up with 10 wins and do so in a fashion that everyone at the end of the season is like "when the hell did florida get 10 wins"
It is a familiar script for them and that is why they are expecting a good shot at beating LSU. Because the script says close defensive battle with LSU within a touchdown
LSU fans feel like we are operating on a different script for our team, UF fans are operating on the same script for their team. So UF fans are all "blah blah we hear this all the time and still win" and LSU fans are confident in a victory
Posted on 10/10/19 at 1:53 pm to Daddyof4
quote:
Most UF fans think we can win this game, much like any fan thinks their team can win a game. (Minus Vandy fan
Cleveland Browns fans might want a convo with you. We pretty much know they aren’t beating Seattle, especially after getting boat raced against SF.
Posted on 10/10/19 at 1:53 pm to JustGetItRight
Man. spot on analysis. The poor ole' Gators gonna have to get lucky to keep it within 5 TDs.
Posted on 10/10/19 at 1:54 pm to ReauxlTide222
Truth tends to always lie somewhere in the middle. UF's defense looks better based on quality of competition; however, they are still a very good D and Grantham knows how to ratchet up the pressure on QBs. LSU's offense has benefitted from weaker competition, but is significantly better and more diverse than last season.
In the end I still think this game is relatively close with LSU possibly pulling away in the 4th. IF LSU has multiple turnovers then the game becomes a toss-up.
In the end I still think this game is relatively close with LSU possibly pulling away in the 4th. IF LSU has multiple turnovers then the game becomes a toss-up.
Posted on 10/10/19 at 1:59 pm to Odysseus32
quote:I mean, sure, there's a chance that regression never comes but it probably will. When you understand that most of Florida's problems this season have revolved around flukey turnover stats most of the criticisms of this team disappear, though. Our run defense isn't great, our run-blocking is bad, and our QBs have been turnover-prone so far this season... That's about as far as our weaknesses go.
I understand regression to the mean completely. I, too, used to listen to Bill C break down SP+. There were plenty of times when he mentioned something should regress to the mean and at the end of the season he would say that for whatever reason it just didn't happen.
Yeah, typically it does, but sometimes it doesn't.
If UF can hang onto the ball and establish a run game then UF wins. If UF turns the ball over a few times and can't run the ball, LSU wins.
Posted on 10/10/19 at 2:00 pm to WilliamTaylor21
It's true.
We might be ranked seventh but no one is giving us a chance to win this game despite LSU not having proven shite yet either. LSU just plays a prettier, Big 12 brand of football.
We might be ranked seventh but no one is giving us a chance to win this game despite LSU not having proven shite yet either. LSU just plays a prettier, Big 12 brand of football.
This post was edited on 10/10/19 at 2:03 pm
Posted on 10/10/19 at 2:07 pm to ReauxlTide222
Well, perhaps. I guess you could base the argument on the fact that the two games they struggled the most in (UK / Miami) were teams that are now 2-3.....
Having said that, I doubt they are coming over here with the intention of losing.
Having said that, I doubt they are coming over here with the intention of losing.
Posted on 10/10/19 at 2:12 pm to oleheat
I'd also point out they played both of those struggles away from The Swamp (although Orlando is in the neighborhood).
If this is a Florida team that struggles on the road, they're headed to the wrong place, this weekend. I can promise it will be loud and liquored up.
If this is a Florida team that struggles on the road, they're headed to the wrong place, this weekend. I can promise it will be loud and liquored up.
Posted on 10/10/19 at 2:22 pm to oleheat
I find it hard to believe that a Florida State fan and an Alabama fan traveled to Gainesville and paid $600 + per ticket to sit in the alumni Gator Booster Premium section at that sold-out homecoming game that close to mid-field. Those are beyond premium seats.
This post was edited on 10/10/19 at 2:25 pm
Posted on 10/10/19 at 2:26 pm to BusinessKnight
why don't any one of you post Miamuhs defensive stats? I am pretty sure they are in the top `15-20 in the country in total defense. 
Posted on 10/10/19 at 2:28 pm to GatorsGators
quote:If there’s one thing that you should bet on, it would be your defensive turnovers and sacks regressing to the mean.
Our turnovers offensively are going to regress to the mean and our defensive rushing stats are going to improve because of it
Posted on 10/10/19 at 2:29 pm to real_gator8
quote:
why don't any one of you post Miamuhs defensive stats? I am pretty sure they are in the top `15-20 in the country in total defense
Sitting at 2-3, what does that really matter? At least part of their team clearly sucks, and you played the whole team.
Posted on 10/10/19 at 2:37 pm to BusinessKnight
I sit in those seats for free every time I go.
I paid $125 for them this year.
I paid $125 for them this year.
Posted on 10/10/19 at 2:42 pm to ReauxlTide222
They could easily be a two loss team
Posted on 10/10/19 at 3:37 pm to superstroke33
quote:
Man. spot on analysis. The poor ole' Gators gonna have to get lucky to keep it within 5 TDs.
Aren’t we the touchy one.
Refute what I said (which made no prediction about the outcome of UF/LSU) with facts if you can. You are going to have a hard time doing it.
Posted on 10/10/19 at 3:39 pm to JustGetItRight
I think Auburn was more fake news than Florida.
Posted on 10/10/19 at 3:41 pm to ReauxlTide222
Or could it be east > west?
Posted on 10/10/19 at 3:42 pm to ReauxlTide222
quote:Ehhhhh. I'd bet good money on our turnover margin improving the rest of the season. We won't get as many turnovers but we're going to turn the ball over even less too
If there’s one thing that you should bet on, it would be your defensive turnovers and sacks regressing to the mean.
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