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Odysseus32
LSU Fan
Boise, ID
Member since Dec 2009
2476 posts

re: Florida might be 100% fake news
I understand regression to the mean completely. I, too, used to listen to Bill C break down SP+. There were plenty of times when he mentioned something should regress to the mean and at the end of the season he would say that for whatever reason it just didn't happen.

Yeah, typically it does, but sometimes it doesn't.


WilliamTaylor21
LSU Fan
4416 Haha Street
Member since Dec 2013
14854 posts
 Online 

re: Florida might be 100% fake news
quote:

We're underrated at this point.



ThePoo
LSU Fan
Work
Member since Jan 2007
59225 posts

re: Florida might be 100% fake news
quote:

You really don’t think UF fans are wildly overhyping the team?
This is the quintessential 10 win florida team we have seen a handful of times over the past decade

Look like an ok team, win with defense, win close conference games, win ugly. Win one game they weren't suppose too (Auburn) Lose one they are not suppose to (My guess is mizzou), get beat by Georgia..end up with 10 wins and do so in a fashion that everyone at the end of the season is like "when the hell did florida get 10 wins"

It is a familiar script for them and that is why they are expecting a good shot at beating LSU. Because the script says close defensive battle with LSU within a touchdown

LSU fans feel like we are operating on a different script for our team, UF fans are operating on the same script for their team. So UF fans are all "blah blah we hear this all the time and still win" and LSU fans are confident in a victory


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Taurus 357
UCF Fan
Great Lakes Gambler
Member since Dec 2014
2298 posts

re: Florida might be 100% fake news
quote:

Most UF fans think we can win this game, much like any fan thinks their team can win a game. (Minus Vandy fan


Cleveland Browns fans might want a convo with you. We pretty much know they aren’t beating Seattle, especially after getting boat raced against SF.


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superstroke33
Florida Fan
Member since Oct 2015
643 posts

re: Florida might be 100% fake news
Man. spot on analysis. The poor ole' Gators gonna have to get lucky to keep it within 5 TDs.


BayouCowboy
LSU Fan
Shreveport
Member since Dec 2012
6280 posts
 Online 

re: Florida might be 100% fake news
Truth tends to always lie somewhere in the middle. UF's defense looks better based on quality of competition; however, they are still a very good D and Grantham knows how to ratchet up the pressure on QBs. LSU's offense has benefitted from weaker competition, but is significantly better and more diverse than last season.

In the end I still think this game is relatively close with LSU possibly pulling away in the 4th. IF LSU has multiple turnovers then the game becomes a toss-up.


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GatorsGators
Florida Fan
Member since Oct 2012
11601 posts

re: Florida might be 100% fake news
quote:

I understand regression to the mean completely. I, too, used to listen to Bill C break down SP+. There were plenty of times when he mentioned something should regress to the mean and at the end of the season he would say that for whatever reason it just didn't happen.

Yeah, typically it does, but sometimes it doesn't.

I mean, sure, there's a chance that regression never comes but it probably will. When you understand that most of Florida's problems this season have revolved around flukey turnover stats most of the criticisms of this team disappear, though. Our run defense isn't great, our run-blocking is bad, and our QBs have been turnover-prone so far this season... That's about as far as our weaknesses go.

If UF can hang onto the ball and establish a run game then UF wins. If UF turns the ball over a few times and can't run the ball, LSU wins.


GatorsGators
Florida Fan
Member since Oct 2012
11601 posts

re: Florida might be 100% fake news
It's true.

We might be ranked seventh but no one is giving us a chance to win this game despite LSU not having proven shite yet either. LSU just plays a prettier, Big 12 brand of football.
This post was edited on 10/10 at 2:03 pm


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25
oleheat
LSU Fan
Sportsman's Paradise
Member since Mar 2007
8841 posts

re: Florida might be 100% fake news
Well, perhaps. I guess you could base the argument on the fact that the two games they struggled the most in (UK / Miami) were teams that are now 2-3.....

Having said that, I doubt they are coming over here with the intention of losing.



oleheat
LSU Fan
Sportsman's Paradise
Member since Mar 2007
8841 posts

re: Florida might be 100% fake news
I'd also point out they played both of those struggles away from The Swamp (although Orlando is in the neighborhood).


If this is a Florida team that struggles on the road, they're headed to the wrong place, this weekend. I can promise it will be loud and liquored up.


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BusinessKnight
LSU Fan
Member since Sep 2017
272 posts

re: Florida might be 100% fake news
I find it hard to believe that a Florida State fan and an Alabama fan traveled to Gainesville and paid $600 + per ticket to sit in the alumni Gator Booster Premium section at that sold-out homecoming game that close to mid-field. Those are beyond premium seats.
This post was edited on 10/10 at 2:25 pm


real_gator8
Florida Fan
Redington Shores
Member since Mar 2019
866 posts

re: Florida might be 100% fake news
why don't any one of you post Miamuhs defensive stats? I am pretty sure they are in the top `15-20 in the country in total defense.


ReauxlTide222
Alabama Fan
St. Petersburg
Member since Nov 2010
60665 posts

re: Florida might be 100% fake news
quote:

Our turnovers offensively are going to regress to the mean and our defensive rushing stats are going to improve because of it
If there’s one thing that you should bet on, it would be your defensive turnovers and sacks regressing to the mean.


oleheat
LSU Fan
Sportsman's Paradise
Member since Mar 2007
8841 posts

re: Florida might be 100% fake news
quote:

why don't any one of you post Miamuhs defensive stats? I am pretty sure they are in the top `15-20 in the country in total defense


Sitting at 2-3, what does that really matter? At least part of their team clearly sucks, and you played the whole team.


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ReauxlTide222
Alabama Fan
St. Petersburg
Member since Nov 2010
60665 posts

re: Florida might be 100% fake news
I sit in those seats for free every time I go.

I paid $125 for them this year.


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FlexDawg
Georgia Fan
Member since Jan 2018
2072 posts

re: Florida might be 100% fake news
They could easily be a two loss team


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JustGetItRight
Alabama Fan
Member since Jan 2012
11194 posts

re: Florida might be 100% fake news
quote:

Man. spot on analysis. The poor ole' Gators gonna have to get lucky to keep it within 5 TDs.


Aren’t we the touchy one.

Refute what I said (which made no prediction about the outcome of UF/LSU) with facts if you can. You are going to have a hard time doing it.


FreddieMac
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Jun 2010
6773 posts

re: Florida might be 100% fake news
I think Auburn was more fake news than Florida.


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tybeebomb
Georgia Fan
State of Chatham
Member since Jul 2014
550 posts

re: Florida might be 100% fake news
Or could it be east > west?


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GatorsGators
Florida Fan
Member since Oct 2012
11601 posts

re: Florida might be 100% fake news
quote:

If there’s one thing that you should bet on, it would be your defensive turnovers and sacks regressing to the mean.

Ehhhhh. I'd bet good money on our turnover margin improving the rest of the season. We won't get as many turnovers but we're going to turn the ball over even less too


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