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Every College Football Playoff Contender's Biggest Flaw (Bleacher Report)

Posted on 7/3/19 at 8:54 am
Posted by TideSaint
Hill Country
Member since Sep 2008
75837 posts
Posted on 7/3/19 at 8:54 am
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quote:

Alabama and Clemson should square off in the College Football Playoff for a fifth consecutive season, but potential defensive issues could keep both heavy favorites from winning it all.

They're not alone, though. All of the teams with legitimate aspirations of being chosen by the CFP selection committee have at least one major red flag that could derail their best-laid plans.

Both Big 12 contenders (Oklahoma and Texas) need to address glaring concerns on defense. Both Big Ten contenders (Michigan and Ohio State) have even larger question marks on offense. And the special teams for LSU and Oregon might be the furthest thing from special.

These issues won't bury all of these squads. Somehow, some way, four teams are going to the College Football Playoff. But these are the hurdles the top contenders will need to clear to get there.

Teams are listed in ascending order of likelihood of winning the national championship, per the consensus title odds on OddsShark as of July 1.



quote:

10. Florida Gators

Championship Odds: 33.7-1

Biggest Flaw: Inexperienced Offensive Line

Feleipe Franks made massive strides at quarterback in Dan Mullen's first year as the Florida Gators head coach. Franks returns, as does what feels like every Gator who caught one of his passes last season.

And even though the defense lost Jachai Polite, Vosean Joseph and Chauncey Gardner-Johnson to the NFL, most of the unit's starters are back for another year.

In other words, there are plenty of reasons to believe this team can improve upon what was already an impressive 10-win campaign.

There is one glaring concern, though: offensive line.

The Gators lost Jawaan Taylor, Martez Ivey, Fred Johnson and Tyler Jordan—a quartet of big men that registered a combined total of 51 out of 52 possible starts last season. Thus, aside from presumed starting center Nick Buchanan, Florida has a great big question mark in the offensive trenches.

Improved blocking was quietly one of the biggest reasons Florida's offense improved so much from 2017 to 2018. During that disastrous 4-7 campaign, the Gators allowed 3.36 sacks per game, good for 124th in the nation. They chopped that all the way down to 1.39 this past season. They also did a much better job of opening lanes for Lamical Perine, turning him into one of the better yards-per-carry running backs in the SEC.

It's great to have all those skill-position players back, but they'll only be as good as their blockers. If this new offensive line isn't in tip-top shape by the time that four-game gauntlet of Auburn, LSU, South Carolina and Georgia rolls around starting Oct. 5, Florida's dream season could turn into a nightmare in a hurry.


quote:

8. (tie) LSU Tigers

Championship Odds: 26-1

Biggest Flaw: Special Teams

The Tigers have an excellent punter in Zach Von Rosenberg. The rising junior averaged 45.7 yards per punt last season, which was the seventh-highest mark in the nation.

And when they don't need a booming punt, there's also Josh Growden to handle the coffin-corner duties. There aren't many punting platoons in college football, but LSU clearly has one of the best.

The Tigers also have a great leg for kickoffs in Avery Atkins. LSU allowed the fewest kickoff return yards of any team last season (126) thanks to Atkins' ability to mash 71 of 79 kickoffs for touchbacks as a freshman.

The other special teams units are much less of a sure thing for Ed Orgeron and Co.

Cole Tracy was one of the best kickers in the country last year, making all 42 of his extra-point attempts and 29 out of 33 field goals—including the game-winner at Auburn. But he is out of the picture, leaving true freshman Cade York as the likely place-kicker right away. At least York is the fourth-best kicker in this year's recruiting class, according to 247Sports.

LSU doesn't have any return specialists, either. The Tigers had a grand total of 99 punt-return yards in 2018 and only had three kickoff returns that went for 30 or more yards. In both departments, those marks were worse than at least half the country.

The kicking is obviously the bigger concern, though. Granted, Alabama has shown in recent years that you can vie for a title without a superb kicking game, but those Crimson Tide teams were more dominant in other areas than LSU figures to be. And there is no margin for error in the SEC West.
This post was edited on 7/3/19 at 8:55 am
Posted by TideSaint
Hill Country
Member since Sep 2008
75837 posts
Posted on 7/3/19 at 8:54 am to
quote:

3. Georgia Bulldogs

Championship Odds: 7.2-1

Biggest Flaw: Backfield Penetration

To win the national championship, Georgia is possibly going to need to defeat Alabama in the SEC title game before then beating both Alabama and Clemson in the College Football Playoff. Even for what should be the third-best team in the nation, that is a nearly impossible task.

It becomes even more unlikely once you factor in Georgia's complete lack of backfield penetration.

If you want to win three games against Tua Tagovailoa and Trevor Lawrence, you've got to be able to get in their faces, disrupt their rhythm and make them think twice about every decision. But Georgia does not have a single returning player who recorded more than 2.0 sacks or 6.0 tackles for loss in 2018. Thus, that probably won't happen.

The Bulldogs averaged 4.64 tackles for loss per game last season, which ranked 116th nationally. They were also tied for 100th in sacks per game at a rate of 1.71. From that already lackluster unit, they lost three of their four most disruptive players in D'Andre Walker, Jonathan Ledbetter and Natrez Patrick.

Walker was the biggest blow, as he had 13 sacks, 24.5 tackles for loss and five forced fumbles over the past two seasons. Even though the team's numbers were weak as a whole, at least Walker was making opposing offensive coordinators lose sleep.

With so much talent on this roster, it's almost inevitable that someone will emerge as a new star and a potential All-American. Both Quay Walker and Azeez Ojulari are candidates to fill that role. If the Bulldogs can't pull another Roquan Smith type of one-man force of nature out of their sleeve, though, they'll fall short of winning it all.


quote:

1. (tie) Alabama Crimson Tide

Championship Odds: 2.3-1

Biggest Flaw: Secondary Play

Early growing pains in the secondary were to be expected for the Crimson Tide last year. Every noteworthy defensive back from the 2017 season either graduated or left early for the NFL, leaving Alabama with a tabula rasa in what is usually one of its (many) areas of dominance.

The problem is that secondary didn't improve with age. In fact, it got worse as the season progressed.

Twelve of Alabama's 14 interceptions came in its first seven games, meaning there were only two in the final eight. After 11 contests, opponents were barely completing half of their pass attempts and averaging 169.5 passing yards and 1.1 touchdowns. Aside from one hiccup against Arkansas (233 yards, three touchdowns), what was supposed to be Alabama's Achilles' heel didn't look like one at all.

However, in the SEC championship tilt against Georgia and the CFP games against Oklahoma and Clemson, Alabama allowed eight combined passing touchdowns with no interceptions and gave up at least 300 passing yards in each contest. That defense was especially atrocious in the national championship loss to Clemson, in which the Tigers had five receptions of more than 25 yards.

Granted, Trevor Lawrence, Kyler Murray and Jake Fromm were three of the best quarterbacks in the country last season, but that's the caliber of opponent this secondary will need to stifle in January.

If Patrick Surtain II and Co. don't make significant improvements...well, Alabama's offense will still outscore most opponents with room to spare. But that could be this team's downfall against Clemson for a second straight year.
This post was edited on 7/3/19 at 8:55 am
Posted by 1BIGTigerFan
100,000 posts
Member since Jan 2007
49073 posts
Posted on 7/3/19 at 8:55 am to
Georgia Bulldogs

Biggest Flaw: Backfield Penetration

This post was edited on 7/3/19 at 8:59 am
Posted by Porter Osborne Jr
Member since Sep 2012
39966 posts
Posted on 7/3/19 at 8:59 am to
Sounds right for UGA. However getting some players back this year like Clark and Davis should help that.
Posted by remaster916
Alabama
Member since Oct 2012
12214 posts
Posted on 7/3/19 at 9:02 am to
Bama's secondary got worse when their best DB was lost for the season after the Arkansas game.

With Surtain, Jobe, Carter, McKinney and Diggs back, Bama will be good to go.
Posted by WG_Dawg
Hoover
Member since Jun 2004
86434 posts
Posted on 7/3/19 at 9:05 am to
quote:

Georgia is possibly going to need to defeat Alabama in the SEC title game before then beating both Alabama and Clemson in the College Football Playoff.


If we beat bama in the SECCG they are not making the playoff

quote:

If you want to win three games against Tua Tagovailoa and Trevor Lawrence, you've got to be able to get in their faces, disrupt their rhythm and make them think twice about every decision.


while that's true we didn't have any trouble disrupting tua last year. Our problem was completely stopping our offense and trying to run out the clock starting in the 3rd quarter.
Posted by Todd Fagan
Member since Jan 2019
237 posts
Posted on 7/3/19 at 9:38 am to
quote:

If we beat bama in the SECCG they are not making the playoff



If, if, if, Bama winds up 12-1, with the only loss being in the SECCG, they're IN !
Posted by deaux
Member since Oct 2018
20267 posts
Posted on 7/3/19 at 9:49 am to
I’m intrigued by the “no return specialists” comment. Do most teams have designated return specialists in college? We have a few guys that I expect to get an opportunity to return punts and kicks this season (e.g. Stingley, Vincent, Dillon) that are all fast and shifty and could do well in that role.
Posted by LSU Patrick
Member since Jan 2009
73409 posts
Posted on 7/3/19 at 9:55 am to
I thought that was odd too. Last year was the first in long time that I can remember not having a return threat. Giles flat out sucked. There are too many stud athletes on the team this year for someone not to step up in that capacity.
This post was edited on 7/3/19 at 10:14 am
Posted by OleManDixon
Lexington
Member since Jan 2018
9234 posts
Posted on 7/3/19 at 9:58 am to
Pleased to see we have no flaws.

Posted by Chimlim
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Jul 2005
17712 posts
Posted on 7/3/19 at 9:58 am to
Either way, they are right our return game last year was awful. Giles was terrible, and fumbled at the worst possible time.
Posted by WG_Dawg
Hoover
Member since Jun 2004
86434 posts
Posted on 7/3/19 at 9:59 am to
quote:

If, if, if, Bama winds up 12-1, with the only loss being in the SECCG, they're IN !


Depends on who the other teams are, if you've got 3 other P5 teams that are conference champs with 0-1 losses they will go. I am certain that if we had won last year (obviously we would be in), that between a 13-0 ACC champ clemson, 12-0 ND, 12-1 Big 12 Champ OU, and 12-1 Big 10 Champ OSU some combo of htose 3 would have been in over bama. I know people like ot talk about bama bias and all but what justification would there be for a 12-1 non conf champ bama to pass those others? There isn't any.


This year, hypothetically of course, if you have a 12-1 SEC champ UGA, a 13-0 ACC champ clemson, and the champs of the big 10 and big 12 both have 1 or 0 losses I don't see why or how bama would be in. It would be especially retarded considering that uga and bama would have just played each other, they aren't going to make us play again next month.
Posted by Bayou_Tiger_225
Third Earth
Member since Mar 2016
10421 posts
Posted on 7/3/19 at 10:13 am to
The field goal kicker and OTs are LSU's two big concerns position wise.
Posted by TheCaterpillar
Member since Jan 2004
76774 posts
Posted on 7/3/19 at 10:38 am to
quote:

LSU doesn't have any return specialists, either. The Tigers had a grand total of 99 punt-return yards in 2018 and only had three kickoff returns that went for 30 or more yards. In both departments, those marks were worse than at least half the country.


World, I'd like to introduce you to Derek Stingley.

Posted by TheCaterpillar
Member since Jan 2004
76774 posts
Posted on 7/3/19 at 10:40 am to
quote:

The field goal kicker and OTs are LSU's two big concerns position wise.



100%

But I really like Cade York. Kid is a future big time kicker. He also shined in the UA All-Star game.

OTs are an issue. Hopefully someone can step up.
Posted by OleManDixon
Lexington
Member since Jan 2018
9234 posts
Posted on 7/3/19 at 10:42 am to
quote:

World, I'd like to introduce you to Derek Stingley.


He may be must see tv.
Posted by broadcaster
Maurepas
Member since Sep 2013
2685 posts
Posted on 7/3/19 at 10:51 am to
That’s one thing Texas A&M does not have to worry about they will always have backfield penetration
Posted by Rohan Gravy
New Orleans
Member since Jan 2017
18001 posts
Posted on 7/3/19 at 11:10 am to
If that’s our weakness, I’m good to go.

Posted by Pandy Fackler
Member since Jun 2018
13969 posts
Posted on 7/3/19 at 11:22 am to
quote:

8. (tie) LSU Tigers 

Championship Odds: 26-1 

Biggest Flaw: Special Teams 


Wrong.

Coaching.

Other than dave aranda who's only "good" at his job, by no means elite. Lsu has a pretty shitty coaching staff.

Their headcoach looks like he's got pandora blasting in his headset whenever he's on the sidelines. Their offensive coordinator is one of the worst in the country. And this football savant joe brady hasn't done jackshit in this sport other than pick up everyone's coffee on his way to work in the morning.

Sorry shite heads. Yawyaw and his bestest good friend "the slinger" keeps this team at a nice, cozy 9 and 3.
Posted by Cheese Grits
Wherever I lay my hat is my home
Member since Apr 2012
54616 posts
Posted on 7/3/19 at 11:27 am to
quote:

Georgia Bulldogs

Biggest Flaw: Backfield Penetration


I guess TAMU lost interest in playing them with that observation.
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