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CFB Program Rankings
Posted on 1/11/18 at 11:21 am
Posted on 1/11/18 at 11:21 am
Now that 2017 is in the books, here is how I would rank the college football programs based on performance in 4 major categories:
1. AP Poll Performance (40% weight)
The AP is the best overall indicator of a program's strength. It factors SOS for one.... That's how a 4-loss Auburn can finish in the Top 10 this season while an 11-2 Troy finished unranked. Win/Loss record on its own doesn't do that. Secondly it goes all the way back to 1936. Some might argue it isn't complete because it doesn't go back further.... but I'd argue capturing the pats 82 years is plenty.
2. National Championships (25% weight)
Yes they are important which is why its worth 25%. But when talking about the overall strength of a program, a program can be very strong and a major player without winning an actual Title. Case in point: Oregon the past 15 years. Oregon is easily a Top 10 program since 2000. They have five Top 5 finishes since 2000.... the only programs with more are Ohio State, USC, Oklahoma, and Alabama. They played for two National Championships but came up short both times. Yes they are lacking a National Title which hurts them, but they shouldn't be discounted all together simply because they came up just short on several occasions.
**On a controversial note, only National Titles awarded by a major poll are counted. Yes that means Ole Miss and Arkansas have zero (sorry). Yes that means bogus titles like Bama's '41 are not counted. And yes that means I do not count Georgia's claim to the 1942 title.
3. Wins (20%)
Wins are slightly more important I think compared to Win% because this is what captures the pre-1936 success/existence of a program before the AP came into play. Rutgers has been playing football since 1869. That should carry some weight compared to a start-up like Boise State. This is the department that hurts teams like Miami and Florida State because they haven't been around as long. And I do think they should be penalized slightly for that fact.
4. Win% (15%)
Where Boise State comes up short in the Win department, its made up for here. Same with Miami.
So with that said, here are how the programs rank with their score:
THE TOP TIER BLUE BLOODS
1. Alabama- 0.9682
2. Oklahoma- 0.8737
3. Notre Dame- 0.8604
4. Ohio State- 0.8450
THE TIER 2 BLUE BLOODS
5. USC- 0.7732
6. Michigan- 0.7508
7. Nebraska- 0.7204
8. Texas- 0.7024
THE REST OF THE ELITES
9. Penn State- 0.6202
10. Tennessee- 0.6090
11. LSU- 0.5949
12. Miami- 0.5576
13. Auburn- 0.5411
14. Georgia- 0.5364
15. Florida- 0.5244
16. Florida St.- 0.5211
The gaps between these 3 tiers are massive. It would take nearly a generation for any of these programs to move up or down a tier barring some type of Dynasty run of multiple national championships.
Clemson comes in at #18, yet even with 2 more National Titles they'd still trail Florida State. The way Clemson is playing currently could allow them to join the top group sooner rather than later.... but it would take at least 1 and maybe 2 national titles. For a program with 2 national titles in over 100 years, that would be quite out of the norm.
THE REST OF THE TOP 30:
17. Michigan State- .4782
18. Clemson- .4658
19. UCLA- .4500
20. Washington- .4310
21. Texas A&M- .430784*
22. Arkansas- .430780*
23. Minnesota- .4288
24. Georgia Tech- .4200
25. Pittsburgh- .4159
26. Wisconsin- .3983
27. Army- .3863
28. Colorado- .3829
29. Ole Miss- .3813
30. TCU- .3717
Texas A&M and Arkansas are so close that I had to go out to the 6th decimal to show separation. To demonstrate how close those two are: Had Arkansas won one more game this past season (or any season), they'd be ranked ahead. Texas A&M has slightly more wins, a better winning percentage, and a National Title while Arkansas does not have an MNC ('64 is not counted). But Arkansas dominates A&M in AP Polls Points (439 to 365) which is what makes it close.
THE OTHER SEC:
38. Missouri- .3433 (between #37 Oregon and #39 Arizona St.)
52. S. Carolina- .2720 (between #51 Duke and #53 Boise St.)
62. Kentucky- .2610 (between #61 Virginia and #63 SMU)
64. Miss. St.- .2594 (between #63 SMU and #65 Kansas)
71. Vanderbilt- .2306 (between #70 Central Michigan and #72 Indiana)
1. AP Poll Performance (40% weight)
The AP is the best overall indicator of a program's strength. It factors SOS for one.... That's how a 4-loss Auburn can finish in the Top 10 this season while an 11-2 Troy finished unranked. Win/Loss record on its own doesn't do that. Secondly it goes all the way back to 1936. Some might argue it isn't complete because it doesn't go back further.... but I'd argue capturing the pats 82 years is plenty.
2. National Championships (25% weight)
Yes they are important which is why its worth 25%. But when talking about the overall strength of a program, a program can be very strong and a major player without winning an actual Title. Case in point: Oregon the past 15 years. Oregon is easily a Top 10 program since 2000. They have five Top 5 finishes since 2000.... the only programs with more are Ohio State, USC, Oklahoma, and Alabama. They played for two National Championships but came up short both times. Yes they are lacking a National Title which hurts them, but they shouldn't be discounted all together simply because they came up just short on several occasions.
**On a controversial note, only National Titles awarded by a major poll are counted. Yes that means Ole Miss and Arkansas have zero (sorry). Yes that means bogus titles like Bama's '41 are not counted. And yes that means I do not count Georgia's claim to the 1942 title.
3. Wins (20%)
Wins are slightly more important I think compared to Win% because this is what captures the pre-1936 success/existence of a program before the AP came into play. Rutgers has been playing football since 1869. That should carry some weight compared to a start-up like Boise State. This is the department that hurts teams like Miami and Florida State because they haven't been around as long. And I do think they should be penalized slightly for that fact.
4. Win% (15%)
Where Boise State comes up short in the Win department, its made up for here. Same with Miami.
So with that said, here are how the programs rank with their score:
THE TOP TIER BLUE BLOODS
1. Alabama- 0.9682
2. Oklahoma- 0.8737
3. Notre Dame- 0.8604
4. Ohio State- 0.8450
THE TIER 2 BLUE BLOODS
5. USC- 0.7732
6. Michigan- 0.7508
7. Nebraska- 0.7204
8. Texas- 0.7024
THE REST OF THE ELITES
9. Penn State- 0.6202
10. Tennessee- 0.6090
11. LSU- 0.5949
12. Miami- 0.5576
13. Auburn- 0.5411
14. Georgia- 0.5364
15. Florida- 0.5244
16. Florida St.- 0.5211
The gaps between these 3 tiers are massive. It would take nearly a generation for any of these programs to move up or down a tier barring some type of Dynasty run of multiple national championships.
Clemson comes in at #18, yet even with 2 more National Titles they'd still trail Florida State. The way Clemson is playing currently could allow them to join the top group sooner rather than later.... but it would take at least 1 and maybe 2 national titles. For a program with 2 national titles in over 100 years, that would be quite out of the norm.
THE REST OF THE TOP 30:
17. Michigan State- .4782
18. Clemson- .4658
19. UCLA- .4500
20. Washington- .4310
21. Texas A&M- .430784*
22. Arkansas- .430780*
23. Minnesota- .4288
24. Georgia Tech- .4200
25. Pittsburgh- .4159
26. Wisconsin- .3983
27. Army- .3863
28. Colorado- .3829
29. Ole Miss- .3813
30. TCU- .3717
Texas A&M and Arkansas are so close that I had to go out to the 6th decimal to show separation. To demonstrate how close those two are: Had Arkansas won one more game this past season (or any season), they'd be ranked ahead. Texas A&M has slightly more wins, a better winning percentage, and a National Title while Arkansas does not have an MNC ('64 is not counted). But Arkansas dominates A&M in AP Polls Points (439 to 365) which is what makes it close.
THE OTHER SEC:
38. Missouri- .3433 (between #37 Oregon and #39 Arizona St.)
52. S. Carolina- .2720 (between #51 Duke and #53 Boise St.)
62. Kentucky- .2610 (between #61 Virginia and #63 SMU)
64. Miss. St.- .2594 (between #63 SMU and #65 Kansas)
71. Vanderbilt- .2306 (between #70 Central Michigan and #72 Indiana)
21
Posted on 1/11/18 at 11:23 am to BHMKyle
Take THAT Boise state, bunch of potato frickers
WHERE WERE YOU IN 1845
WHERE WERE YOU IN 1845
Posted on 1/11/18 at 11:24 am to BHMKyle
Posted on 1/11/18 at 11:24 am to BHMKyle
Now do the modern era.
Posted on 1/11/18 at 11:25 am to BHMKyle
quote:
THE TOP TIER BLUE BLOODS
1. Alabama- 0.9682
2. Oklahoma- 0.8737
3. Notre Dame- 0.8604
4. Ohio State- 0.8450
Posted on 1/11/18 at 11:25 am to BHMKyle
Good list.
Suprised there is such a large gap between 1 & 2.
Might could create another tier - another fairly big gap between LSU and the teams behind them.
Suprised there is such a large gap between 1 & 2.
Might could create another tier - another fairly big gap between LSU and the teams behind them.
Posted on 1/11/18 at 11:25 am to BHMKyle
quote:
13. Auburn- 0.5411
14. Georgia- 0.5364
This will make the thread interesting
Posted on 1/11/18 at 11:26 am to BHMKyle
quote:The biggest gap of all is between #1 and #2. You need another tier.
The gaps between these 3 tiers are massive
Posted on 1/11/18 at 11:28 am to BHMKyle
quote:
The gaps between these 3 tiers are massive. It would take nearly a generation for any of these programs to move up or down
The gap between #1 Alabama and #2 Oklahoma is larger than the gap between Tier 1 and Tier 2. In other words Alabama should be in Tier 1 alone at this point.
Posted on 1/11/18 at 11:28 am to Dawgholio
quote:
Now do the modern era.
Define modern era? Some would say Post WW2... others would say since scholarship limitations first went into place (1973)... others would just put a time period on it (last 40 years, last 20 years, etc.)
It also depends on how old you are. If you are in your 20s, you probably think only going back to the year 2000 would suffice. If you are in your 60's, you probably would laugh at only going back that far.
Posted on 1/11/18 at 11:29 am to Master of Sinanju
quote:
Good list.
Suprised there is such a large gap between 1 & 2.
There wasn't until Saban came to Bama.
Posted on 1/11/18 at 11:31 am to BHMKyle
Pretty good quantifiable analysis
Posted on 1/11/18 at 11:32 am to Weagle25
quote:
This will make the thread interesting
The thread was put together by a Georgia fan. It is what it is. Georgia leads Auburn in most categories but that 2nd National Championship is where Auburn ekes out a slight lead.
Sure Georgia could possibly count the '42 title, but then others would have to count their titles not awarded by a major poll and Auburn fans would then say that their '13 title should be counted, etc. It's a slippery slope. It's much easier to just go by the real polls.
Had Georgia won the game on Monday night, we'd not have only jumped Auburn but we would have also jumped Miami to take the #12 spot. It just goes to show how close everyone is from #9 Penn State down through #16 Florida State.
Penn State and Tennessee both used to be counted with that next group up top... but they've both slipped in the last 15 years while LSU, Auburn, Georgia, Florida, and Florida State have done some major catching up.
This post was edited on 1/11/18 at 12:09 pm
Posted on 1/11/18 at 11:32 am to BHMKyle
quote:
Now that 2017 is in the books, here is how I would rank the college football programs based on performance in 4 major categories:
And how are the scores calculated?
Posted on 1/11/18 at 11:33 am to BHMKyle
Lots of good stuff here, but there has got to be a metric for conference titles. Granted not all are created equal (espeically in the big 10 where OSU/UM have the lion's share compared to anyone else), but that's kinda the first big "goal" of every season for every team is to win your conference. And espeically in the SEC those titles mean something, and yes...perhaps us having the 2nd most in the league has me a bit biased. I just think that's too important a piece of hardware to leave out entirely.
Posted on 1/11/18 at 11:37 am to BHMKyle
quote:
Rutgers has been playing football since 1869. That should carry some weight compared to a start-up like Boise State. This is the department that hurts teams like Miami and Florida State because they haven't been around as long. And I do think they should be penalized slightly for that fact.
one of the dumbest things I've ever read for comparing football programs. By your logic, Kansas will be top of the universe if they can just field a football team longer than others.
Posted on 1/11/18 at 11:43 am to starsandstripes
quote:
And how are the scores calculated?
Basically you take each of the 4 categories and put teams in order. Then you divide each team's number in each category by the leading team's number in that category to produce a category score.
For example: Oklahoma leads the group in AP Poll points with 1,059. For Oklahoma, you divide that by 1,059 and they get a perfect score of 1.0000 for the AP Points Category. Alabama is second in that category with 1,038 points, so when you divide by 1,059, that give Bama a score of 0.9802 in the AP Points Category.
Teams end up with a category score ranging from 0 to 100.... then each category score is multipled by that category's weight and the numbers are put together.
Posted on 1/11/18 at 11:45 am to BHMKyle
quote:
Better than SMU, in the top 65
BOOOOOOOOOOOOOM
PARTY 
Posted on 1/11/18 at 11:50 am to BHMKyle
quote:
10. Tennessee- 0.6090
quote:
11. LSU- 0.5949
quote:
13. Auburn- 0.5411
quote:
14. Georgia- 0.5364
quote:
15. Florida- 0.5244
Mmmmmmmmm das it mane
Posted on 1/11/18 at 11:51 am to Pinche Cabron
I thought this was the worst thread of the day until I came across that gif 
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