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CFB Head Coach Rankings

Posted on 11/30/20 at 9:27 am
Posted by BHMKyle
Birmingham, AL
Member since Feb 2013
5076 posts
Posted on 11/30/20 at 9:27 am
... by Average Weekly AP Poll Points

For each week a HC has had his team ranked in the AP Top 25, he gets points based on how high the ranking was each week (25 pts for 1st place, 24 pts for 2nd place, etc.). Then total up his total all-time career weekly AP poll points and divide by the number of poll releases during the time period. Each coach is only judged by his record at his current school.

1. Nick Saban, Alabama- 21.59 points/week
2. Ryan Day, Ohio State- 20.81
3. Lincoln Riley, Oklahoma- 17.89
4. Kirby Smart, Georgia- 16.92
5. Dabo Swinney, Clemson- 15.39
6. Dan Mullen, Florida- 15.07
-------------------
7. Ed Orgeron, LSU- 13.49
8. Jim Harbaugh, Michigan- 11.70
9. Paul Chryst, Wisconsin- 11.47
10. Brian Kelly, Notre Dame- 10.64
11. Gus Malzahn, Auburn- 10.20
12. David Shaw, Stanford- 8.96
13. James Franklin, Penn State- 8.85
14. Mario Crystobal, Oregon- 7.54
15. Jimbo Fisher, Texas A&M- 6.93
16. Mike Gundy, Oklahoma State- 6.59
17. Tom Herman, Texas- 6.93
18. Gary Patterson, TCU- 6.33
19. Manny Diaz, Miami- 6.04
20. Clay Helton, USC- 5.45

The Top 6 coaches on the list are way out in front of the pack, and with each passing week, they are pulling further ahead.

Saban (#1), Day (#3), Riley (#13), Smart (#11), Swinney (#4), and Mullen (#6) all have their teams ranked somewhere in the Top 13 of the current AP Poll (see current ranking in parentheses).

Meanwhile, the coaches ranked #7 through #14 mostly find their teams currently not ranked, therefore falling further behind with each passing week. Only Paul Chryst's Wisconsin team (#18), Brian Kelly's Notre Dame team (#2), and Mario Crystobal's Oregon team (#21) find themselves currently ranked, but Brian Kelly is the only one really adding significant points right now.

IMO- There are currently six great head coaches in the sport, and everyone else is flawed to some degree. Brian Kelly has his team in a very good spot, but to be ranked way down at #10 behind folks like Harbaugh shows he's struggled at points in time while in South Bend.
Posted by mizslu314
Dirty STL
Member since Sep 2013
15943 posts
Posted on 11/30/20 at 9:29 am to
quote:

17. Tom Herman, Texas- 6.93


Annnnnnd this list is shite
Posted by skrayper
21-0 Asterisk Drive
Member since Nov 2012
30812 posts
Posted on 11/30/20 at 9:30 am to
quote:

For each week a HC has had his team ranked in the AP Top 25, he gets points based on how high the ranking was each week (25 pts for 1st place, 24 pts for 2nd place, etc.). Then total up his total all-time career weekly AP poll points and divide by the number of poll releases during the time period. Each coach is only judged by his record at his current school.


quote:

1. Nick Saban, Alabama- 21.59 points/week


So the average ranking for Nick Saban is between #4 and #5?
Posted by BHMKyle
Birmingham, AL
Member since Feb 2013
5076 posts
Posted on 11/30/20 at 9:35 am to
quote:

Annnnnnd this list is shite


The list is statistical. It's based upon a stated metric, and its not an opinion poll.

Whether you like it or not, Texas has been ranked in the Top 25 during 34 weekly AP Poll releases since 2017 which is when Herman was hired at Texas. While I think everyone will agree Herman has struggled relatively speaking, he's at least made Texas relevant from a rankings standpoint more so than other coaches who didn't make the list like Mark Stoops or Jeremy Pruitt.
Posted by BHMKyle
Birmingham, AL
Member since Feb 2013
5076 posts
Posted on 11/30/20 at 9:37 am to
quote:

So the average ranking for Nick Saban is between #4 and #5?


His average ranking when in the poll is 3.3... but this also penalizes coaches for the weeks their team was NOT ranked in the poll at all. There were eleven poll releases in the 2007 season in which Alabama was not ranked.
Posted by Tigerboy55
Member since Feb 2020
711 posts
Posted on 11/30/20 at 9:38 am to
The fact that riley is above dabo is showing that this list and there criteria sucks
Posted by Bench McElroy
Member since Nov 2009
33909 posts
Posted on 11/30/20 at 9:39 am to
Ryan Day is a really hard coach to rank because he inherited a Ferrari from Meyer and hasn't even been a HC for two years. But he's been extremely impressive in the limited time he's been at Ohio State and has taken them to another level even from what they were with Meyer.
Posted by Farmer1906
The Woodlands, TX
Member since Apr 2009
50093 posts
Posted on 11/30/20 at 9:42 am to
quote:

Annnnnnd this list is shite



quote:

The list is statistical. It's based upon a stated metric, and its not an opinion pol


It can be both.
Posted by 4Ghost
Member since Sep 2016
8518 posts
Posted on 11/30/20 at 9:43 am to
List is shite, pure shite having Day ahead of Dabo and he had 1 year under his belt. And, Day lost the ONLY head to head matchup against Dabo. Dabo lost more playoff games than Riley has even played in, more shite.
Posted by Hback
Member since Aug 2017
9130 posts
Posted on 11/30/20 at 9:46 am to
quote:

8. Jim Harbaugh, Michigan- 11.70
Posted by BHMKyle
Birmingham, AL
Member since Feb 2013
5076 posts
Posted on 11/30/20 at 10:01 am to
quote:

The fact that riley is above dabo is showing that this list and there criteria sucks


The fact that you can't see that there is no insert of opinion and that it's completely based on actual statistics shows you don't have a functioning brain.

I never once said this list is a true representation of exactly how the coaches should be ranked in terms of how good they are. It's simply a metric of how well their teams have performed in the AP poll since they were hired.

Swinny is obviously RIGHT NOW a Top 2 coach. But facts are facts... and there have been five seasons during the Swinney era at Clemson in which they struggled relatively speaking (2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2014). During these five seasons, there were 81 AP Poll releases and Clemson was unranked in 33 of those poll releases.... they were ranked somewhere between #11 and #25 in another 39 of those releases... and they only managed to make the Top 10 in just 9 of the 81 weeks during those five seasons.

Like I said, Dabo NOW is a Top 2 coach, but history and facts show that in some of the earlier years in his tenure, he was mediocre.

If you want to come up with a metric that looks at just this season, by all means do it. I'm afraid you want like where it ranks your head coach though.
Posted by FearlessFreep
Baja Alabama
Member since Nov 2009
17258 posts
Posted on 11/30/20 at 10:07 am to
quote:

The fact that you can't see that there is no insert of opinion and that it's completely based on actual statistics
compiled from a poll of sportswriters’ opinions
Posted by Porter Osborne Jr
Member since Sep 2012
39958 posts
Posted on 11/30/20 at 10:26 am to
I feel like every time you post something people get all up in the feels about it. It's literally raw data being used with no opinion of your own and people still get upset. Keep up the great posts
Posted by Leto II
Arrakis
Member since Dec 2018
21203 posts
Posted on 11/30/20 at 10:30 am to
quote:

I feel like every time you post something people get all up in the feels about it. It's literally raw data being used with no opinion of your own and people still get upset. Keep up the great posts

Yep.
Posted by JCinBAMA
North of Huntsville
Member since Oct 2009
17582 posts
Posted on 11/30/20 at 10:30 am to
Somehow I think this post is about Kirby being ranked 4th. wohoo
Posted by BHMKyle
Birmingham, AL
Member since Feb 2013
5076 posts
Posted on 11/30/20 at 10:32 am to
quote:

I feel like every time you post something people get all up in the feels about it. It's literally raw data being used with no opinion of your own and people still get upset. Keep up the great posts


Ha. Yeah it does seem like that. I've come to learn in life that a lot of people just hate statistics. Thank you though, I appreciate it.
Posted by Decker
Member since Nov 2015
3435 posts
Posted on 11/30/20 at 10:37 am to
It’s mostly because this set of statistics sucks arse. Opinion polls during the first several weeks of the season are biased and inaccurate. If you only used the last few weeks of the year (or even just the final poll), you’d have a better data set.

Additionally, there is no accounting for the program building some coaches had to go through (Dabo) while other coaches had it much easier from day 1 (Day, Riley, Kirby).
Posted by CaptainMorgan
Member since Oct 2007
1507 posts
Posted on 11/30/20 at 10:39 am to
I think the criteria is misleading. Swinney and Saban took over programs when they were in the dumps and are regularly ranked in the top 5 now, winning multiple championship and contending yearly.

Ryan Day and Lincoln Riley took over top 5 programs and have kept it up in shitty conferences for a few years with no noteworthy accomplishments to speak of. Smart took over an above average program and has kept them above average without taking them to the next level.

Mullen belongs nowhere near the other 5, and Day, Riley, and Smart don’t belong anywhere near Saban and Swinney.

There is no “big six”. There are a bunch of coaches trying to keep up with Saban and Swinney with moderate levels of success, depending on the year.
This post was edited on 11/30/20 at 10:41 am
Posted by Leopold
Columbia
Member since Sep 2013
1068 posts
Posted on 11/30/20 at 10:40 am to
So James Franklin has coached a premier program to - literally - it’s worst start in school history and he’s the 13th best coach in the country.

M’kay
Posted by geauxbrown
Louisiana
Member since Oct 2006
19359 posts
Posted on 11/30/20 at 10:42 am to
CFB HEAD COACH RANKINGS

1)Nick Saban
















2)Everyone else
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