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re: Bernie Machen: One thing holding back SEC expansion
Posted on 3/22/13 at 9:46 pm to USMC Gators
Posted on 3/22/13 at 9:46 pm to USMC Gators
quote:
In an effort to keep them out of the south, the SEC will cave to UNC and also take Duke with them.
This doesn't even make sense...
If we were looking to "keep them out of the south" we'd grab Georgia Tech back -- which could easily be the next domino to fall in expansion.
Duke and UNC are going to be split in expansion -- the SEC won't take them both and neither will the B1G. That'll be an OOC rivalry just like Marquette - Wisconsion and Kentucky - Louisville.
That leaves us with one from Virginia -- and Tech is the much better cultural fit.
This post was edited on 3/22/13 at 9:49 pm
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Posted on 3/22/13 at 9:47 pm to mograyback
quote:
Oklahoma and UNC would be the perfect way to top off at 16.
No. frick Oklahoma.
Posted on 3/22/13 at 9:53 pm to tmc94
Don't disagree at all. I just think a bird in the hand and in the DC metro market beats one in the B1G bush. LOTS of VT bumper stickers on vehicles in Virginia - I get the blip that is Beemerball but who is to say that they can't be a valuable addition? They would more than pay their own freight.
Posted on 3/22/13 at 9:57 pm to SWCBonfire
UVA (not VT) is a crown jewel. UNC as well.
Posted on 3/22/13 at 10:00 pm to SWCBonfire
Oh I don't disagree they are a good add and pay their own freight. But you don't expand just for them because you still have to get a pairing school. Taking VPI first probably means NCSU and eliminates the true home run of UNC. The first school has to be the one that moves the needle, not just pay it's own freight. I bet we don't move until UNC makes a decision.
Posted on 3/22/13 at 10:12 pm to Cajun Ag
quote:
UVA (not VT) is a crown jewel.
How? UVA is a perfect cultural fit for the B1G and terrible cultural fit for the SEC -- and they've ALREADY had to face the reality that they are little brother's football bitch, so that won't be driving their decision in the same way it will be for the Tar Heels in North Carolina.
Posted on 3/22/13 at 10:12 pm to tmc94
I think it will be very difficult to wait on UVA when a foothold is available in the DC market. Northern Virginia is one of the fastest growing areas in the nation, and it's college educated people moving there. You may even take both if you can and you don't get a sniff from NC or Duke.
This post was edited on 3/22/13 at 10:14 pm
Posted on 3/22/13 at 10:14 pm to mograyback
No, UNC/ Duke or UNC/ Va Tech would be the SEC's next move if the B1G moves. Missouri would then be moved to the SEC West. I hope the SEC never expands though. 14 teams allows both football and basketball to maintain divisional schedules. 16 team conferences will absolutely destroy conference tournaments in basketball and baseball The "pod" system would be disastrous to college football and basketball and would destroy rivalalry games and make schedules horribly uneven between conference schools.
Posted on 3/22/13 at 10:15 pm to mograyback
quote:
Oklahoma and UNC would be the perfect way to top off at 16.
Clemson and FSU.
Posted on 3/22/13 at 10:18 pm to SWCBonfire
why would you wait on UVA? You wait on UNC. Then you try to pair them with UVA, VPI, or Duke (probably in that order) imo. VPI and NCSU have no other options because they aren't AAU. You are never going to lose them if you want them.
If UNC moves to the B1G then you respond in seconds (because that's the end of the ACC) and take UVA/VPI and NCSU. And then you do everything in your power to raise NCSU to the premier school in NC.
If UNC moves to the B1G then you respond in seconds (because that's the end of the ACC) and take UVA/VPI and NCSU. And then you do everything in your power to raise NCSU to the premier school in NC.
Posted on 3/22/13 at 10:25 pm to tmc94
quote:
VPI and NCSU have no other options because they aren't AAU. You are never going to lose them if you want them.
The Big12 is lurking on this...
They are eventually going to get Clemson and FSU -- and with those two, why not try to get a couple more on the east coast? If we get UNC, that is the obvious destination for NC State(Duke ends up B1G). That leaves Louisville and Ga Tech(assuming they aren't already gone to the B1G) as very attractive options to the Big12 as well, which puts them at 14 or 15 depending...
Posted on 3/22/13 at 10:28 pm to tmc94
UNC/Virginia would be nice too. Every flagship state school in the south in 1 conference. 
Posted on 3/22/13 at 10:34 pm to engie
I wasn't meaning they are screwed, but no one picks the Big 12 over the SEC or B1G. The distance alone makes it a no-brainer. VPI or NCSU isn't going to bolt to the Big 12 until the ACC is dead and they are left out.
I really don't think FSU or Clemson do either because of the realities of the Big 12. They are only stable due to a GOR that only lasts 12 years. When that GOR expires, it's open season. If the Texoma foursome go to the PAC, then FSU is on an island and will have destroyed the ACC, and cannot get into the SEC or B1G. It's far too great a risk to take to join a conference halfway across the country. The Big 12 just doesn't have the power to poach anyone right now.
I really don't think FSU or Clemson do either because of the realities of the Big 12. They are only stable due to a GOR that only lasts 12 years. When that GOR expires, it's open season. If the Texoma foursome go to the PAC, then FSU is on an island and will have destroyed the ACC, and cannot get into the SEC or B1G. It's far too great a risk to take to join a conference halfway across the country. The Big 12 just doesn't have the power to poach anyone right now.
Posted on 3/22/13 at 10:45 pm to SWCBonfire
quote:
I get what you are saying, but if Virginia Tech called up and said things just aren't working out with the ACC and they've arranged their exit, we would be at 15 members tomorrow.
We would trip all over ourselves getting after NC State and Va Tech if they called. NC State's market is the same as UNC's ... the RTP. And Va Tech's coverage area plays heavily into all of Virginia, most of Maryland and even over into WVA territory and down into northern NC, not to mention some of DC.
Posted on 3/22/13 at 10:55 pm to tmc94
quote:
The Big 12 just doesn't have the power to poach anyone right now.
They've got the money -- and their tv deal with those teams becomes alot more lucrative.
The ACC got absolutely slaughtered on their tv negotiations...
Posted on 3/22/13 at 10:57 pm to engie
Definitely another Texas team. Just not the longhorns. I don't like aTm getting anyone they want in state. 
Posted on 3/22/13 at 10:58 pm to engie
Double Post. 
This post was edited on 3/22/13 at 10:59 pm
Posted on 3/22/13 at 11:10 pm to engie
the difference is like $3m per year in tv money. Wgaf. tv is only like 20% of revenue. Schools like FSU's problem are that they don't fill up their stadium for all the crappy games they have. The Big 12 doesn't fix that. And given the extra travel costs, the reduced access for their fans to away games, and the exit fee, there's simply not enough incentive to even consider it.
Posted on 3/22/13 at 11:35 pm to tmc94
quote:
the difference is like $3m per year in tv money. Wgaf.
$3 mil WITHOUT the states of Florida and SC in the fold. More like $13+ mil with those in play.
quote:
tv is only like 20% of revenue.
That depends. It would be alot closer to 40% for a school like Clemson. The potential $$ UPGRADE is almost 20% of total -- before considering the amount of money they were already getting.
quote:
Schools like FSU's problem are that they don't fill up their stadium for all the crappy games they have. The Big 12 doesn't fix that.
In the Big12, they have fewer crappy games -- so, it certainly doesn't exacerbate the problem. Instead of 1-2 teams that can legitimately compete against them, there are a half dozen on every given year.
quote:
And given the extra travel costs, the reduced access for their fans to away games, and the exit fee, there's simply not enough incentive to even consider it.
You're wrong -- and that will become readily apparent in the near future.
This post was edited on 3/22/13 at 11:36 pm
Posted on 3/23/13 at 12:47 am to engie
it's okay if you think so. I'm not going to throw things around like "you're wrong". I think that's silly. If you can't articulate your point beyond that, you just aren't worth discussing anything with.
The Big 12's deal is already overvalued because the networks were on the clock to keep them together. Realize they get the worst ratings of the 5 major conferences (yes, worse than the ACC). There will not be a bump for adds but it is already pre-negotiated to keep equal payouts per team if the "right teams" are added (btw, states don't particularly matter here as there is no conference network). It's a safe assumption that FSU is one of the right teams. One bump they will get is more money for a CCG (which is why I used $3m) and a full playoff and Sugar Bowl share (it hasn't been officially announced but any conference that doesn't have a CCG is only getting a partial share).
And it's not close to 40% for Clemson. Clemson had total revenue of $61m last year. $13m of that was tv. They have $48m other revenue. To get to 40%, their tv only revenue would have to rise to $32m annually, a farcical number that even the SEC will barely reach (and the SEC dominates ratings). Your numbers are incredibly far off.
I'm also not sure how you figure they'll have fewer crappy games in the Big 12. You need to remember, my school was in the Big 12. The Big 12 does not have a travel culture at all. There will be the newness factor but long term they won't travel and no games will be of interest outside of OU and UTx. It's just like the ACC but even more spread out.
Anyway, conference alignment is a far deeper issue than just tv money or even athletics. You are conveniently ignoring all the other factors. Brand awareness. Travel. Academics. The people making these decisions are regents that are looking out for the interest of school as a whole, not just athletics. And using their AD to market themselves in Kansas and Iowa is not useful to FSU. A school looking to move up academic rankings choosing to join a coalition of poor academic schools is not beneficial to FSU. It's a well known fact that the farther an alum lives from a school the less he gives. The FSU alumni base is all along the atlantic coast and in the south. Playing road games further away from that base makes them feel more isolated...and potentially give less money. That's not good for FSU.
FSU may at some point feel backed into a corner and jump. But the decision would be incredibly bad for their university and it's why all that talk died suddenly. They have some smart people checking in on this and don't have website fanboys making the call.
The Big 12's deal is already overvalued because the networks were on the clock to keep them together. Realize they get the worst ratings of the 5 major conferences (yes, worse than the ACC). There will not be a bump for adds but it is already pre-negotiated to keep equal payouts per team if the "right teams" are added (btw, states don't particularly matter here as there is no conference network). It's a safe assumption that FSU is one of the right teams. One bump they will get is more money for a CCG (which is why I used $3m) and a full playoff and Sugar Bowl share (it hasn't been officially announced but any conference that doesn't have a CCG is only getting a partial share).
And it's not close to 40% for Clemson. Clemson had total revenue of $61m last year. $13m of that was tv. They have $48m other revenue. To get to 40%, their tv only revenue would have to rise to $32m annually, a farcical number that even the SEC will barely reach (and the SEC dominates ratings). Your numbers are incredibly far off.
I'm also not sure how you figure they'll have fewer crappy games in the Big 12. You need to remember, my school was in the Big 12. The Big 12 does not have a travel culture at all. There will be the newness factor but long term they won't travel and no games will be of interest outside of OU and UTx. It's just like the ACC but even more spread out.
Anyway, conference alignment is a far deeper issue than just tv money or even athletics. You are conveniently ignoring all the other factors. Brand awareness. Travel. Academics. The people making these decisions are regents that are looking out for the interest of school as a whole, not just athletics. And using their AD to market themselves in Kansas and Iowa is not useful to FSU. A school looking to move up academic rankings choosing to join a coalition of poor academic schools is not beneficial to FSU. It's a well known fact that the farther an alum lives from a school the less he gives. The FSU alumni base is all along the atlantic coast and in the south. Playing road games further away from that base makes them feel more isolated...and potentially give less money. That's not good for FSU.
FSU may at some point feel backed into a corner and jump. But the decision would be incredibly bad for their university and it's why all that talk died suddenly. They have some smart people checking in on this and don't have website fanboys making the call.
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