Started By
Message

Alabama vs LSU - Breakdowns

Posted on 10/26/18 at 9:21 am
Posted by skrayper
21-0 Asterisk Drive
Member since Nov 2012
30812 posts
Posted on 10/26/18 at 9:21 am
The biggest topic for this game, so far, has been how Alabama's Offense will fare vs LSU's defense (or vice versa, depending on which team you're a fan of). While this is quite clearly the marquee match-up for this game (primarily Alabama's passing attack vs LSU's secondary), there are few other match-ups that may prove to be the keys to this game. Let's review each:

Alabama's Rushing Attack vs LSU's Rushing Defense:

Lost in the story that is Alabama's passing attack is a rushing attack that is not lacking. Alabama currently ranks 4th in the SEC in rushing (216.88 ypg) and currently has the most rushing TDs of any team (21). An offensive line better known for pass coverage has come on strong in the last few games to demonstrate greater success in rushing the ball as well. Alabama's ground game is a three-headed beast of Damien Harris, Najee Harris, and Josh Jacobs - each one bringing a different tool for Alabama to use. Damien has break-away speed, while Najee Harris is a bruiser and Jacobs is among the most versatile RBs in the country. Najee and Damien both rank in the top 8 in the SEC in ypc (at least 6.27), and Jacobs' 8 TDs ranks 4th.

LSU counters with a DL that has been considered the "weak" part of the defense (weak, of course, is subjective - LSU's DL is easily better that 2/3 of all DLs in FBS). LSU's numbers are hard to pin down, however, as some solid rushing attacks (UGA) had trouble getting momentum (3.77 ypc), others that are not well known for it gave them fits (Ole Miss - 4.84 ypc, Florida - 5 ypc). LSU has one of the best LB corps in the country, spearheaded by Devin White. White's suspension, however, means LSU will miss more than just his athletic abilities as White is also the shot caller for the LSU defense. Alabama may attack LSU's run defense sooner rather than later, to see if passing lanes can open up.

Alabama's passing attack vs LSU's pass defense:

Ah, the match-up everyone is talking about. Everyone wants to know if Alabama's passing attack is as good as believed, or has simply feasted on poor secondaries. LSU will easily be the best pass defense Alabama has faced (41.52 pass eff difference between LSU and the best pass defense Alabama has faced), while Alabama will easily be the best pass offense LSU has faced (58.13 difference). A lot of people on both sides seeing their side to be the one to "break" the other, but I don't think either side breaks the other. Each team will have victories - this may be Tua being more conservative, but in turn the occasional short pass being turned into long games and underneath throws being there when normally they would not. Tua will not have his usual numbers, but he is unlikely to be shut out either. From an efficiency standpoint, LSU and Alabama both will have their "worst" games.

LSU's rushing attack vs Alabama's rushing defense:

Lost in the discussion of Alabama O vs LSU D is the other side of the coin. Alabama comes into the game with a defense not as dominant as defenses of seasons past, but hardly a "bottom half" defense. Alabama ranks #13 in pass efficiency defense (which puts them #5 in the SEC, as 6 teams rank in the top 14), and 18th in rushing defense (but 30th in ypc) for an overall 15th in the nation in total defense and 11th in scoring defense. Alabama rushing defense has been solid, but not great - a mortal 30th ranking in rushes over 10 yards. This is offset by a 9th national ranking in TFL - Alabama seems to either give up solid runs, or tackle in the backfield (unlike the 2011 edition, for example, which was more likely to always tackle you within a yard or two of the LOS).

LSU's rushing attack lacks the superstar RBs of the past few seasons, but that doesn't mean it "sucks". LSU ranks 47th nationally in rushing offense, which is remarkable considering they have faced some of the best rush defenses in the country (Auburn, Florida, and MSU). Give LSU credit where credit is due - they have run into the teeth of the strongest SEC rush defenses. LSU will try to replicate the level of success they had against UGA (5.39 ypc) and avoid the tough sledding they encountered MSU (2.5 ypc). Expect some success against Alabama, as LSU employees their own two-headed beast of Brossette and Edwards-Helaire, with Brossette a legit homerun threat with 20 carries at over 10 yards, and 4 carries at 30 yards. LSU will try and push through to the second level, where Alabama's LB corps has talent but lacks experience. I expect LSU to try and run to the edge, as Quinnen Williams for Alabama has done an outstanding job this year clogging up the middle.

LSU's passing attack vs Alabama's pass defense:

Burrow has faced some stout pass defenses this year, though none quite as opportunistic as Alabama's. Second only to LSU in INT (and ahead of them prior to the MSU game), Alabama has been more prone to the big play than LSU but has shown similar ball hawk skills. Alabama's secondary, despite the numbers, is simply not in the same league as LSU's - Thompson would likely be a starter on any other SEC team save for LSU, where he would backup the All-American talent Delpit. The CBs, though, are where LSU outpaces Alabama - but this discussion is Alabama's secondary vs LSU's WRs and QB. LSU has talent at WR, but Burrow has been serviceable and clutch, but not great. It will remain to be seen how well he does against Alabama's defense.

The main component in this, I believe, will be pass protection. Alabama ranks #3 in sacks in the country, while LSU ranks #84 in sacks allowed. LSU's WR may have enough talent to get separation, but it may be that Burrow will not have time to take advantage of many mismatches. Look for LSU to incorporate a lot of quick slants and screens to offset the Alabama pass rush.

Posted by skrayper
21-0 Asterisk Drive
Member since Nov 2012
30812 posts
Posted on 10/26/18 at 9:21 am to
Special teams:

LSU holds a massive edge in place kicker - Alabama will almost certainly try to limit any long distance FGs their kicker has to take, while LSU can count on theirs for points from nearly any reasonable range. Not even worth discussing as LSU holds a clear edge.

In punter, Alabama move their former starter to the bench - and their backup kicked two for 41 yards each with no returns. Not amazing, but considering Alabama's offense sufficient. LSU counters with a punter averaging over 44 yards per punt and enough times to ensure that is not a fluke. Only 9 of his 42 punts have been returned this season.

Tidbits:

LSU's offense's biggest breakdown is in the redzone, as they have had a solidly respectable 38 trips to the redzone and score 92% of the time - but only 47.34% of the time (124th in the country). Lack of TDs in the redzone may end up being the ultimate killer for the LSU offense this game.

LSU is 85th in third down conversions, while Alabama is 12th in opponent 3rd down conversions. LSU MUST ensure some 3rd and short situations to help overcome this imbalance. On the other side, LSU is 25th and only allowing a 3rd down conversion rate of 32.23%; Alabama counters with a national best 56.18% conversion rate. Alabama's conversion rate is high due to the passing attack - on 3rd and 7 or longer, Alabama is 25 of 32 passing for 20 first downs. These plays, however, may play directly into LSU's hands and their stout pass defense.




Final Prediction:

Tua will have his "worst" day and LSU's secondary will have their "worst" day as well. Alabama's running game will have some limited success against LSU's rush defense, and expect at least one long passing TD and a couple of big runs. LSU's offense will get some yards, but will run into issues punching it in.

I suspect Alabama and LSU will both have the same number of scoring drives, only for LSU's red zone woes to be the ultimate killer. Settling for 4FGs and 2TDs, while Alabama has 5TDs and 1 FG. Barring any special teams or defensive scores (both possible with these defenses and ST return units), look for Alabama to win by roughly 38-26.
Posted by JRBayoutiger
Down da bayou
Member since Nov 2015
754 posts
Posted on 10/26/18 at 9:30 am to
Yall not scoring 38 on us bitch
Posted by Draconian Sanctions
Markey's bar
Member since Oct 2008
84766 posts
Posted on 10/26/18 at 9:32 am to
quote:

Alabama may attack LSU's run defense sooner rather than later, to see if passing lanes can open up.



I absolutely think this is what Saban will want to do, especially without Devin White for the first half.

I think if LSU wants to really go for the win here we have to run tempo most of if not all of the time. This is a risky strategy for sure but just lining up and trying to shorten the game, the traditional strategy to try to steal a game against a better opponent, will only allow Saban to dial up his exotic blitz packages and matchups. If we go that way we have virtually no chance of winning but will almost certainly put up a “good show” in a 31-21 type of loss.

You go tempo you give yourself a chance to win but also a chance to get boatraced.

To be honest I wouldn’t totally blame Ed if went with scenario A and took the pretty loss. If we win the last 3 we’re 10-2 and in a major bowl plus the criticism for the Bama loss will be relatively tame. If he goes for it and gets housed the natives won’t take that well. I hope he doesn’t think that way but if it were my 3.5 million a year job idk what I would do.

This post was edited on 10/26/18 at 9:37 am
Posted by bamasgot13
Birmingham
Member since Feb 2010
13619 posts
Posted on 10/26/18 at 9:34 am to
quote:

Yall not scoring 38 on us bitch


we'll see, but they won't need 38 to win any way.
Posted by Draconian Sanctions
Markey's bar
Member since Oct 2008
84766 posts
Posted on 10/26/18 at 9:35 am to
quote:

but they won't need 38 to win any way


Probably true sadly
Posted by stat19
Member since Feb 2011
29350 posts
Posted on 10/26/18 at 9:40 am to
#FreeDevinWhite
Posted by TigerFan4040
Member since Sep 2013
4386 posts
Posted on 10/26/18 at 9:45 am to
Pretty good analysis, but I don't see 64 pts being scored in this game.

Posted by Draconian Sanctions
Markey's bar
Member since Oct 2008
84766 posts
Posted on 10/26/18 at 9:47 am to
quote:

I don't see 64 pts being scored in this game.


If there are that’s probably bad news for us
Posted by viceman
Huntsville, AL
Member since Aug 2016
30688 posts
Posted on 10/26/18 at 9:49 am to
quote:

Yall not scoring 38 on us bitch


You're right. Since Tua will be playing 4 quarters, we will likely score much more.
Posted by BamaRolling
Member since Aug 2018
115 posts
Posted on 10/26/18 at 9:49 am to
quote:

Yall not scoring 38 on us bitch


Probably more like 42
Posted by RollTide1987
Augusta, GA
Member since Nov 2009
64883 posts
Posted on 10/26/18 at 9:50 am to
I'm looking for Alabama to break tendencies in this one. I think we come out throwing the football, challenging LSU's secondary early and hitting them with underneath routes with the absence of Devin White in the middle to start the game. We will utilize the tight ends early and often. If we have success, and LSU's defense backs off to defend the pass, we will then hit them with a dose of Harris, Harris, and Jacobs.

Posted by PentagonTiger
Taylor Hall
Member since Dec 2008
1610 posts
Posted on 10/26/18 at 9:51 am to
Great Breakdown. White is a big part of the run defense so I’m guessing we’ll see a lot of ground and pound in the first half especially.
Posted by lion
Member since Aug 2016
764 posts
Posted on 10/26/18 at 9:52 am to
quote:

I think if LSU wants to really go for the win here we have to run tempo most of if not all of the time.
Personally I think LSUs best shot is to do the opposite. Snap the ball with a couple of seconds left each time and shorten the game as much as possible - 3rd downs will be huge to keep the ball away. Hurry up could certainly help at times though.
This post was edited on 10/26/18 at 9:54 am
Posted by Draconian Sanctions
Markey's bar
Member since Oct 2008
84766 posts
Posted on 10/26/18 at 9:54 am to
I know that’s the traditional way of thinking but again I think you’re playing right into Alabama’s hands giving them time to rest and make checks at the line. We have to take the fight to them and keep them off kilter to win. I understand it’s a risky strategy.
Posted by I-59 Tiger
Vestavia Hills, AL
Member since Sep 2003
36703 posts
Posted on 10/26/18 at 9:55 am to
good,well reasoned posts. Cannot disagree with any part of these posts. Obviously I think LSU will win,but can't argue with any of this.
Posted by BamaRolling
Member since Aug 2018
115 posts
Posted on 10/26/18 at 9:55 am to
quote:

I absolutely think this is what Saban will want to do, especially without Devin White for the first half.


I disagree. Saban should keep on doing what brought him here. Maybe run slightly more but let the best player in the country be the best player in the country.
This post was edited on 10/26/18 at 9:56 am
Posted by bstew3006
318
Member since Dec 2007
12570 posts
Posted on 10/26/18 at 9:56 am to
quote:

I think if LSU wants to really go for the win here we have to run tempo most of if not all of the time. This is a risky strategy for sure but just lining up and trying to shorten the game, the traditional strategy to try to steal a game against a better opponent, will only allow Saban to dial up his exotic blitz packages and matchups. If we go that way we have virtually no chance of winning but will almost certainly put up a “good show” in a 31-21 type of loss.


Agreed, LSU cant run the same offense of years past. Has to be aggressive (Auburn, UGA, 1st half UM). Doesn't have to be on every drive, but they are gonna have to be aggressive and "let Em hang" in this game.

I'm feeling 17-10 Bama at half and 27-27/31-31 type end of Regulation, 34-37 LSU OT
Posted by NashvilleTiger09
Nashville
Member since Jul 2014
835 posts
Posted on 10/26/18 at 10:06 am to
This was a nice touch considering what 99% of LSU - Bama threads have been.
Posted by skrayper
21-0 Asterisk Drive
Member since Nov 2012
30812 posts
Posted on 10/26/18 at 10:12 am to
quote:

This was a nice touch considering what 99% of LSU - Bama threads have been


Appreciating the positive vibes

I honestly believe, for all the things everyone is going on and on about, it'll be red zone performance that will end up being the determining factor. Of course I could be wrong - I'm no analyst - but that's just what I've seen from the teams.

I still think LSU's defense get them through the rest of the season and into a NY6 bowl game. If enough shenanigans occur they could even get into the playoffs with 2 losses (though I think Clemson's schedule and Notre Dame's remaining schedule are just too weak to leave room for a slip up).
Page 1 2 3 4
Jump to page
first pageprev pagePage 1 of 4Next pagelast page

Back to top
logoFollow SECRant for SEC Football News
Follow us on Twitter and Facebook to get the latest updates on SEC Football and Recruiting.

FacebookTwitter