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Alabama vs Auburn In-Depth Match-Ups

Posted on 11/19/17 at 6:49 pm
Posted by BTide
Member since Dec 2016
252 posts
Posted on 11/19/17 at 6:49 pm
While stats do not tell the whole story, especially without substantial situational breakdown, I feel like this look into stat rankings and match-ups is quite beneficial in terms of what to expect in style for teams. It is also interesting to see how these styles may potentially interact.

First, I will breakdown Alabama's offense vs Auburn's defense.

Alabama Offense vs Auburn Defense
Yards Per Play 9th vs 4th
Total Offense 15th vs 10th
Points Per Game 7th vs 8th

So far examining total stats, it shows Alabama has quite an effective offense. The offense is especially good at yardage per play; however, Auburn's defense is downright elite in yards per play and claims the advantage here.

Rush YPC 7th vs 9th
Rush YPG 9th vs 16th

As expected, Alabama's run game is the focus of the offense. While technically Alabama gets the italicized ranking here in YPC, the difference is very little. Auburn is not at all an easy team to run against. Their opponents have clearly tried though, deflating their YPG ranking in relation to the more-important YPC stat.

Pass YPA 9th vs 5th
Pass Efficiency 4th vs 11th
Pass YPG 82nd vs 20th

It is surprising here to see that when Alabama does pass, it has been very effective. Alabama does not pass the ball very often though, but possibly will need to more than the team would like. Auburn's pass defense is excellent, ranking even higher than their vaunted run defense. Alabama's efficiency is highly elevated due to the care with the ball, and lack of interceptions. Hurts has shown though that he can turn it on when he needs to, so both fan bases should be holding their breath every time the ball is thrown.

3rd Down Conversions 41st vs 26th
Tackles For Loss Allowed/ Game 5th vs 42nd
Sacks Allowed/ Game 49th vs 15th

There are some surprises here. As efficient and effective as Alabama's offense has been, it is merely average at converting third downs. It could be due to the number of sacks Alabama has allowed, which again is merely average in preventing them. However, able to be determined from these stats is that when Alabama runs the ball, it has been very productive in gaining positive yards and not allowing lost plays. The tackles for loss is a massive, massive upgrade from the 2016 offense. While Auburn's defensive line is fearsome, they do not rank quite as high as expected in sacks nor tackles for loss. Perhaps Auburn's defense is simply highly effective at limiting positive gains.
Posted by BTide
Member since Dec 2016
252 posts
Posted on 11/19/17 at 6:50 pm to
Now for Auburn's offense vs Alabama's defense.

Auburn Offense vs Alabama Defense

Yards Per Play 20th vs 1st
Total Offense 17th vs 1st
Points Per Game 17th vs 1st

Auburn's offense ranks fairly well in the total stats, but they face a juggernaut of a defense.

Rush YPC 26th vs 1st
Rush YPG 18th vs 2nd

While Kerryon Johnson is a fantastic running back, and Auburn does run the ball often, surprisingly they rank higher in passing per play statistics. Alabama's defensive identity for years has been stopping the run, so it will be interesting to see how Auburn does against that.

Pass YPA 8th vs 1st
Pass Efficiency 8th vs 1st
Pass YPG 62nd vs 3rd

Stidham has proven when he is given the chance to throw, he can be very dangerous. Auburn does not pass the ball very often, however. Most teams have to have a highly efficient passing game to contend with Alabama, so it will be interesting to see that battle.

3rd Down Conversions 18th vs 15th
Tackles For Loss Allowed/ Game 77th vs 34th
Sacks Allowed/ Game 88th vs 21st

Auburn's offense is pretty good at converting third downs, and Alabama's defense is right there. Auburn's offense has been plagued with negative plays. It is likely that this stat is inflated due to the catastrophic performance against Clemson early in the season, and that Auburn has improved in this stat since then. Alabama's defense is a very different style this season compared to last year, and does not have quite the same aggressiveness with forcing negative plays and terrorizing quarterbacks in the backfield. Alabama will need to try to get after Stidham though.
This post was edited on 11/20/17 at 8:50 am
Posted by blzr
Keeneland
Member since Mar 2011
30084 posts
Posted on 11/19/17 at 6:52 pm to
Whose the best offenses bama has played this year?
Posted by golfntiger32
Ohio
Member since Oct 2013
12486 posts
Posted on 11/19/17 at 6:53 pm to
These stats dont mean anything. They have to actually play each other. Those stats are based of other teams they have played.
Posted by HailToTheChiz
Back in Auburn
Member since Aug 2010
48888 posts
Posted on 11/19/17 at 6:54 pm to
quote:

Whose the best offenses bama has played this year?


Miss St
Posted by golfntiger32
Ohio
Member since Oct 2013
12486 posts
Posted on 11/19/17 at 6:54 pm to
Miss St. and they won on last drive, Auburn is better than Miss St. more balanced.
This post was edited on 11/19/17 at 6:55 pm
Posted by artompkins
Orange Beach, Al
Member since May 2010
5613 posts
Posted on 11/19/17 at 6:58 pm to
Probably fsu before franscois went down.
Posted by artompkins
Orange Beach, Al
Member since May 2010
5613 posts
Posted on 11/19/17 at 7:02 pm to
State has a better more effective qb than Auburn.
Posted by rbWarEagle
Member since Nov 2009
49999 posts
Posted on 11/19/17 at 7:03 pm to
Posted by artompkins
Orange Beach, Al
Member since May 2010
5613 posts
Posted on 11/19/17 at 7:13 pm to
Well they do but it doesn't matter; Hurts will be the best qb on the field and he along with the giant gulf in coaching talent will be the difference in the game.
Posted by aufbfan
Member since Jan 2015
760 posts
Posted on 11/19/17 at 7:14 pm to
Oh look. Another thinly veiled “suck off Bama” thread.

Perhaps Auburn shouldn’t even show up.
Posted by rbWarEagle
Member since Nov 2009
49999 posts
Posted on 11/19/17 at 7:17 pm to
Yeah, Fitzgerald is better than Stidham... except when it comes to QBR, Completion percentage, Yards. Other than that, Fitzgerald is way better.
Posted by Tigerman97
Member since Jun 2014
10354 posts
Posted on 11/19/17 at 7:21 pm to
quote:

While Auburn's defensive line is fearsome, they do not rank quite as high as expected in sacks nor tackles for loss. Perhaps Auburn's defense is simply highly effective at limiting positive gains.




We haven't seen many teams willing to drop back and throw it against.
Posted by rbWarEagle
Member since Nov 2009
49999 posts
Posted on 11/19/17 at 7:21 pm to
Real curious to see what metrics you’re using to measure QB effectiveness besides your gut feelings.
Posted by Tigerman97
Member since Jun 2014
10354 posts
Posted on 11/19/17 at 7:22 pm to
quote:

State has a better more effective qb than Auburn.



JS's best attribute is his accuracy down field. He can take the "top" off a D. If you ask a DC what he fears most...it will be getting beat deep.
Posted by golfntiger32
Ohio
Member since Oct 2013
12486 posts
Posted on 11/19/17 at 7:23 pm to
quote:

State has a more one dimensional qb than Auburn.


FIFY
Posted by viceman
Huntsville, AL
Member since Aug 2016
30688 posts
Posted on 11/19/17 at 7:24 pm to
quote:

Whose the best offenses bama has played this year?


Miss St


Total OffenseLast updated - November 19, 2017 Through games of November 18, 2017
123
RANK TEAM G PLAYS YDS YDS/PLAY OFF TDS YPG
1 Oklahoma 11 778 6476 8.32 63 588.7
2 Oklahoma St. 11 858 6247 7.28 61 567.9
3 Louisville 11 825 6164 7.47 54 560.4
4 Ohio St. 11 843 6008 7.13 64 546.2
5 UCF 10 690 5226 7.57 60 522.6
6 Memphis 10 744 5190 6.98 55 519.0
7 Toledo 11 788 5613 7.12 50 510.3
8 Colorado St. 12 894 6012 6.72 51 501.0
Wrong again lil Bro, in fact it is Bama who has faced a higher ranked offense than Auburn has
This post was edited on 11/19/17 at 7:29 pm
Posted by rbWarEagle
Member since Nov 2009
49999 posts
Posted on 11/19/17 at 7:40 pm to
Still waiting
Posted by viceman
Huntsville, AL
Member since Aug 2016
30688 posts
Posted on 11/19/17 at 7:45 pm to
I'll answer for him. Stidham has a higher passer rating but when you account rushing yards and turnovers like ESPN's total qbr, then he has a point, all things considered Fitz has been a more effective qb this year
RK PLAYER PASS EPA RUN EPA SACK EPA PEN EPA TOTAL EPA ACT PLAYS RAW QBR TOTAL QBR
1 Khalil Tate, ARIZ 18.3 50.9 -4.2 2.3 67.5 289 91.9 93.8
2 Baker Mayfield, OKLA 97.2 12.8 -12.9 1.1 98.3 430 90.6 92.0
3 Lamar Jackson, LOU 51.3 54.5 -11.5 -0.0 93.8 612 81.0 86.4
4 Jalen Hurts, ALA 35.5 18.0 -11.3 2.3 44.5 339 78.1 84.1
5 Mason Rudolph, OKST 83.2 4.3 -11.9 7.3 82.8 498 82.9 83.8
6 J.T. Barrett, OSU 43.2 21.4 -6.5 6.1 64.1 477 81.0 83.5
7 John Wolford, WAKE 49.4 17.8 -6.3 -1.6 59.3 441 76.5 83.3
8 Ryan Finley, NCST 64.2 5.1 -7.0 4.7 67.2 503 73.0 80.3
9 Kelly Bryant, CLEM 45.2 15.7 -11.5 3.6 53.1 482 70.0 79.1
10 Jake Fromm, UGA 34.5 4.9 -8.4 0.4 31.4 271 73.7 79.0
RK PLAYER PASS EPA RUN EPA SACK EPA PEN EPA TOTAL EPA ACT PLAYS RAW QBR TOTAL QBR
11 Nick Fitzgerald, MSST 14.2 41.2 -4.1 1.3 52.6 469 72.4 78.6
12 Brandon Wimbush, ND 15.5 25.7 -9.8 3.2 34.5 383 67.6 78.0
13 Trace McSorley, PSU 51.2 8.9 -13.1 3.2 50.2 494 70.5 77.9
14 McKenzie Milton, UCF 61.5 16.5 -5.6 1.7 74.0 385 87.0 77.7
15 Logan Woodside, TOL 69.6 -1.0 -9.8 2.5 61.6 401 79.8 77.0
16 Danny Etling, LSU 31.8 8.3 -13.1 2.1 29.1 296 67.0 74.4
17 Brian Lewerke, MSU 39.4 14.0 -11.2 3.3 45.4 503 65.3 73.9
18 Jake Browning, WASH 46.4 5.8 -11.6 0.8 41.5 370 72.9 73.4
19 Will Grier, WVU 67.1 -5.0 -8.8 4.2 57.7 480 72.1 73.4
20 Nic Shimonek, TTU 66.6 1.5 -15.5 5.5 58.0 515 69.8 73.2
RK PLAYER PASS EPA RUN EPA SACK EPA PEN EPA TOTAL EPA ACT PLAYS RAW QBR TOTAL QBR
21 Jon Wassink, WMU 30.4 8.1 -5.3 1.1 33.9 251 74.3 73.1
22 Sam Darnold, USC 66.6 3.0 -13.9 -2.2 53.5 508 68.2 73.1
23 Jarrett Stidham, AUB 46.2 4.1 -17.2 3.1 36.2 364 67.6 73.0
LINK
This post was edited on 11/19/17 at 7:47 pm
Posted by rbWarEagle
Member since Nov 2009
49999 posts
Posted on 11/19/17 at 7:53 pm to
Well if he meant to say that Fitz has been a more effective runner, he was right.
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