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Graphing Alabama Basketball : 2001 - 2019
Posted on 2/11/19 at 11:18 am
Posted on 2/11/19 at 11:18 am
The below graph is Alabama's Offense, Defense and Overall ranking per KenPom since 2001 (first year they kept total data). I did it quickly so it's realitvely shitty, but it's interesting to see how things fell downhill with CMG and AG and compare the general areas to the current regime. These are our national ranks per KenPom in each category.
(a) CMG's collapse began when we stopped playing defense. We still had good teams, but we steadily got worse on the defensive end of the floor from 2003-2006. Then, when he stopped signing elite offensive players, the whole thing collapsed. The quality of player Gottfried had from 2006 on was not of the same level from 2002-2005, and his entire system was based around talented players making plays. Without them, poof. Boy that 2005 team was good. Fvckin Bruce Pearl.
(b) Grant's teams were so fvckin bad on offense. And his last team was actually his 2nd best team. The 2011 & 2012 teams were truly all-time great defensive teams, though. And it wasn't just because we slowed things down, efficiency wise they were great.
(c) You can see Avery's plan in the trends. Our defensive efficiency has fallen and our offensive efficiency has jumped. Another data point that would add to that is our tempo - which is 70th or so, the highest of the last 20 years. You probably want that defensive efficiency number to stabilize back into at least the 40-50 range, though.
(d) Most consistent bubble program ever. 12 of the 19 seasons we were between #35-63.
(a) CMG's collapse began when we stopped playing defense. We still had good teams, but we steadily got worse on the defensive end of the floor from 2003-2006. Then, when he stopped signing elite offensive players, the whole thing collapsed. The quality of player Gottfried had from 2006 on was not of the same level from 2002-2005, and his entire system was based around talented players making plays. Without them, poof. Boy that 2005 team was good. Fvckin Bruce Pearl.
(b) Grant's teams were so fvckin bad on offense. And his last team was actually his 2nd best team. The 2011 & 2012 teams were truly all-time great defensive teams, though. And it wasn't just because we slowed things down, efficiency wise they were great.
(c) You can see Avery's plan in the trends. Our defensive efficiency has fallen and our offensive efficiency has jumped. Another data point that would add to that is our tempo - which is 70th or so, the highest of the last 20 years. You probably want that defensive efficiency number to stabilize back into at least the 40-50 range, though.
(d) Most consistent bubble program ever. 12 of the 19 seasons we were between #35-63.
This post was edited on 2/11/19 at 12:23 pm
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Posted on 2/11/19 at 11:31 am to SummerOfGeorge
(A) Happened when CMG started to chase AXO tail and ended up being caught at Ol’ Colony
Posted on 2/11/19 at 11:49 am to SummerOfGeorge
This post was edited on 2/11/19 at 11:50 am
Posted on 2/11/19 at 12:03 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Posted on 2/11/19 at 12:18 pm to biggsc
Saban calls that a distraction.
Posted on 2/11/19 at 12:19 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
d) Most consistent bubble program ever. 12 of the 19 seasons we were between #35-63
We have had a mediocre coach with decently talented rosters for literally the last 2 decades. All we need is for one of those two things to improve and we are no longer a perennial bubble team. If Avery can keep improving the talent level to the point that we can win 20-22 games every year in a tough league, and maybe a little more when we have an upperclassmen heavy roster, then fine. If he can't, he needs to go.
Posted on 2/11/19 at 12:21 pm to Robot Santa
quote:
If Avery can keep improving the talent level to the point that we can win 20-22 games every year in a tough league, and maybe a little more when we have an upperclassmen heavy roster, then fine. If he can't, he needs to go.
Yep - 100% agree
Posted on 2/11/19 at 12:51 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Thanks for posting this.
I agree with you that the higher tempo Avery wants to play may mean a drop in defensive efficiency.
However, I think this year is a bit of a exception in that we're playing a 17 yo point guard that's fantastic on the offensive end but struggles on defense 30 minutes a game.
You just can't get consistent stops if one of the opposing playmakers gets wherever they want on the court whenever. . . or having to scheme too much help to stop that.
That's probably more an "it is what it is" than by design.
I agree with you that the higher tempo Avery wants to play may mean a drop in defensive efficiency.
However, I think this year is a bit of a exception in that we're playing a 17 yo point guard that's fantastic on the offensive end but struggles on defense 30 minutes a game.
You just can't get consistent stops if one of the opposing playmakers gets wherever they want on the court whenever. . . or having to scheme too much help to stop that.
That's probably more an "it is what it is" than by design.
Posted on 2/11/19 at 12:54 pm to wm72
quote:
However, I think this year is a bit of a exception in that we're playing a 17 yo point guard that's fantastic on the offensive end but struggles on defense 30 minutes a game.
You just can't get consistent stops if one of the opposing playmakers gets wherever they want on the court whenever. . . or having to scheme too much help to stop that.
That's probably more an "it is what it is" than by design.
Yep - agree. The continuity piece with a dynamic kid at PG who has good vision and instincts has supercharged the offense, but on the flip side it is hurt the defense.
Posted on 2/11/19 at 1:42 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Against Mississippi State it was fairly obvious that Avery JR was making Peters work much harder than he had to against Kira. That was sort of when it really sunk in for me.
That said, it doesn't really matter. Kira is so good that we just have to put up with it. It's not like he's not trying, he's just not a good defender yet.
Best case is "hiding" him on defense. Against Vanderbilt we were able to take him off their point guard at times down the stretch. Against some teams you can't really consistently hide him.
That said, it doesn't really matter. Kira is so good that we just have to put up with it. It's not like he's not trying, he's just not a good defender yet.
Best case is "hiding" him on defense. Against Vanderbilt we were able to take him off their point guard at times down the stretch. Against some teams you can't really consistently hide him.
Posted on 2/11/19 at 1:48 pm to Crede15
quote:
Kira is so good that we just have to put up with it. It's not like he's not trying, he's just not a good defender yet.
Yep - he's just figuring it out. And that's the end where still having a high school body also hurts him.
He'll be a good defender next year, I have no doubt about that.
Posted on 2/11/19 at 2:38 pm to SummerOfGeorge
I'd say it's a 50/50 chance at this point. Missing on Watford certainly doesn't help, but I do think overall our recruiting is in a much better place with Avery than it was with Grant. Not as good as it was before Gottfried started night putting, but if Avery can regularly pull in top 15-20 classes I don't see why annual 20+ wins shouldn't follow.
This post was edited on 2/11/19 at 2:39 pm
Posted on 2/11/19 at 3:15 pm to Robot Santa
quote:
I'd say it's a 50/50 chance at this point. Missing on Watford certainly doesn't help, but I do think overall our recruiting is in a much better place with Avery than it was with Grant. Not as good as it was before Gottfried started night putting, but if Avery can regularly pull in top 15-20 classes I don't see why annual 20+ wins shouldn't follow.
One thing Avery has done better than anyone else is have a plan and a type of kid he wants. He's not just offering all the 4-stars in the region and hoping to snag a few.
He has a prototype for various spots - Reese as a stretch, Galin as a banger, Petty as an allround 3/4 who can stretch the floor, Herb as a 3 and D long guy (obviously the 3 part hasn't developed at all), specific idea of what his PG should look like.
We haven't hit on all of them, but it is hard to argue with the depth we currently have on the roster (and will have next year). We don't sign a lot of non-SEC caliber players anymore, and our transfers have generally come in and contributed (outside of King who was sick). Having kids with specific abilities who learn and get better and progress as subs and then starters is a good thing, and I hope it continues to go that route.
It would be great to just steadily have a roster of upperclassmen with a few NBA caliber underclassmen sprinkled in. That's the ticket to success.
This post was edited on 2/11/19 at 3:17 pm
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