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Doomsday playoff scenario
Posted on 11/29/25 at 8:58 am
Posted on 11/29/25 at 8:58 am
BYU wins the Big 12 Championship edging Texas Tech
Michigan beats Ohio State today then beats Indiana in the Big 10 Championship
SMU and Virginia win today, giving the winner an automatic bid in the ACC CG
You could potentially have BYU, Michigan, the SMU/Virginia winner and the highest ranked G5 team all receiving automatic bids despite none currently being ranked in the top 10
Add in the SEC champ, either Georgia, Alabama or Ole Miss
So now you only have 7 spots available with only one current top 10 team guaranteed a spot
Who gets the at-large bids?
Ohio State 11-1 and Indiana 12-1 are locks as is Texas A&M 11-1 (despite not making the SEC championship game)
Now we have 4 spots left and here's where things get dicey
Oregon 11-1(assuming they beat Washington today), who didn't make the Big 10 CG?
The SEC CG loser (Georgia 11-2, Alabama 10-3 or Ole Miss 11-2)?
An 11-1 Ole Miss, who didn't make the SEC CG?
Texas Tech 11-2, who would be in as of today but a loss in a conference CG could knock them out?
Assuming the following teams win today ...
Notre Dame 10-2?
Oklahoma 10-2?
Vanderbilt 10-2?
Miami 10-2?
I understand the long odds of this hypothetical but it is a possibility
Even if none of this happens, there will be teams not in the playoff who would be capable of winning the national championship
Michigan beats Ohio State today then beats Indiana in the Big 10 Championship
SMU and Virginia win today, giving the winner an automatic bid in the ACC CG
You could potentially have BYU, Michigan, the SMU/Virginia winner and the highest ranked G5 team all receiving automatic bids despite none currently being ranked in the top 10
Add in the SEC champ, either Georgia, Alabama or Ole Miss
So now you only have 7 spots available with only one current top 10 team guaranteed a spot
Who gets the at-large bids?
Ohio State 11-1 and Indiana 12-1 are locks as is Texas A&M 11-1 (despite not making the SEC championship game)
Now we have 4 spots left and here's where things get dicey
Oregon 11-1(assuming they beat Washington today), who didn't make the Big 10 CG?
The SEC CG loser (Georgia 11-2, Alabama 10-3 or Ole Miss 11-2)?
An 11-1 Ole Miss, who didn't make the SEC CG?
Texas Tech 11-2, who would be in as of today but a loss in a conference CG could knock them out?
Assuming the following teams win today ...
Notre Dame 10-2?
Oklahoma 10-2?
Vanderbilt 10-2?
Miami 10-2?
I understand the long odds of this hypothetical but it is a possibility
Even if none of this happens, there will be teams not in the playoff who would be capable of winning the national championship
Posted on 11/29/25 at 8:59 am to GAT BoilerPickle Doc
One good thing about being a hog fan….i don’t need to attempt reading that.
Posted on 11/29/25 at 9:00 am to GAT BoilerPickle Doc
quote:
Even if none of this happens, there will be teams not in the playoff who would be capable of winning the national championship
Every year.
Win your games or watch from home.
Posted on 11/29/25 at 9:01 am to Rzrbackguy
Right there with ya razorbaw.
Posted on 11/29/25 at 9:04 am to GAT BoilerPickle Doc
Seems like the whole playoff thing hasn’t even mattered then. Same situation as the CFP election
Posted on 11/29/25 at 9:08 am to GAT BoilerPickle Doc
Michigan needs Oregon to lose to make the B1GCG so your entire scenario is invalid
Posted on 11/29/25 at 9:09 am to GAT BoilerPickle Doc
Are we sure Tech is a gimme if they don't win their CG? The B12 is only getting one team.
Posted on 11/29/25 at 9:13 am to forkedintheroad
quote:
Win your games or watch from home.
I think the point is that teams that are winning their games are getting left out because of subjective placement of at large teams.
Posted on 11/29/25 at 9:20 am to Pimphand
quote:
Michigan needs Oregon to lose to make the B1GCG so your entire scenario is invalid
I believe you are correct regarding Michigan's chances of reaching the Big 10 CG
A 10-2 Michigan with a win over the current #1 team in the country would certainly boost their odds of making the playoff
Posted on 11/29/25 at 9:25 am to GAT BoilerPickle Doc
quote:
A 10-2 Michigan with a win over the current #1 team in the country would certainly boost their odds of making the playoff
ND would be the big loser here. Or if Bama loses to Auburn then that’s your replacement.
Posted on 11/29/25 at 9:27 am to ukraine_rebel
quote:
ND would be the big loser here.
I'm good with that
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