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re: Official AU Baseball Thread 33-22 overall (13-17 SEC)

Posted on 5/18/13 at 4:37 pm to
Posted by TheSandman
Waffle House
Member since Nov 2010
19517 posts
Posted on 5/18/13 at 4:37 pm to
Aylabamuh
Posted by Ross
Member since Oct 2007
47827 posts
Posted on 5/19/13 at 1:06 pm to
They looked pretty good against Vanderbilt.

We need that win.
Posted by ellitor
Member since Sep 2012
14285 posts
Posted on 5/19/13 at 1:29 pm to
Respectfully disagree. I want to win every game we have but in terms of getting in the regionals I think yesterday did it. Here is a little known tidbit. Auburn has won 3 of it's 7 series versus SEC teams that will be in the NCAAs. They are tied with Bama at 2 games each. If we win Tuesday we will have won 4 of 7 series and there should be no doubt after that. I seriously doubt most teams on the bubble can say the same thing.
Posted by GenesChin
The Promise Land
Member since Feb 2012
37855 posts
Posted on 5/19/13 at 1:46 pm to
quote:

I think yesterday did it.


I think most peoplel agree with this but I will still be sweating bullets on the announcement. We could conceivably be left out.

Winning against Bama and definitely potentially winning again in the loser's bracket would pretty much secure us. I mean I will just check this thread in the next week to find out
Posted by ellitor
Member since Sep 2012
14285 posts
Posted on 5/19/13 at 2:07 pm to
1 new projection just released has Auburn in and not on the bubble line. LINK
Posted by The Nino
Member since Jan 2010
21818 posts
Posted on 5/19/13 at 3:21 pm to
quote:

Respectfully disagree. I want to win every game we have but in terms of getting in the regionals I think yesterday did it. Here is a little known tidbit. Auburn has won 3 of it's 7 series versus SEC teams that will be in the NCAAs. They are tied with Bama at 2 games each. If we win Tuesday we will have won 4 of 7 series and there should be no doubt after that. I seriously doubt most teams on the bubble can say the same thing.


We also lost a shite ton of games, some to very poor opponents...we need at least 1 more win
Posted by WDE24
Member since Oct 2010
54853 posts
Posted on 5/19/13 at 3:26 pm to
I think one more win is needed. 2 more and I think we eliminate any doubt.
Posted by ellitor
Member since Sep 2012
14285 posts
Posted on 5/19/13 at 3:27 pm to
quote:

We also lost a shite ton of games, some to very poor opponents..
Not as poor as most of the bubble teams. We have no losses to teams 200 or higher in the RPI. Most bubble teams have at least 1 loss in that catagory. Some have 2 or 3.
Posted by The Nino
Member since Jan 2010
21818 posts
Posted on 5/19/13 at 3:48 pm to
If you say so. Still alot of ball to be played. As of right now, I think we help in some way or form
Posted by AUtigerNOLA
New Orleans, LA
Member since Apr 2011
17296 posts
Posted on 5/19/13 at 5:25 pm to
Dude we weed at least another win. We are no a shoe in as of right now. We still have no idea if we are getting in
Posted by ellitor
Member since Sep 2012
14285 posts
Posted on 5/19/13 at 5:32 pm to
No shoe in but at this point I would be a bit surprised if any of the projections that come out this week even have Auburn on the bubble line.
Posted by RockyMtnTigerWDE
War Damn Eagle Dad!
Member since Oct 2010
109057 posts
Posted on 5/19/13 at 5:41 pm to
quote:

we weed





Absolutely
Posted by Rig
BHM
Member since Aug 2011
41869 posts
Posted on 5/19/13 at 5:41 pm to
After starting 1-8 AU finished down the stretch with the most SEC wins only behind Vandy, LSU, and Mississippi State.

Guys I don't see how anyone still believes we are on the bubble or even have a possibility of getting left out. I'd like to see some numbers to counter what ellitor has thrown out there instead of "ahh yeah we could def get left out we have bad losses" and shite.
Posted by The Nino
Member since Jan 2010
21818 posts
Posted on 5/19/13 at 6:05 pm to
quote:

Guys I don't see how anyone still believes we are on the bubble or even have a possibility of getting left out. I'd like to see some numbers to counter what ellitor has thrown out there instead of "ahh yeah we could def get left out we have bad losses" and shite.


If it were a computer selecting who makes the tourney, then yeah I think we would get in no problem. Unfortunately it's a committee, which is still made up of humans for what my sources tell me. So things going against us:

1) Finish last in our division
2) Bad conference record
3) Poor OOC quality
4) No real signature wins (you can argue for the MSU and OM wins, but they are low in the polls;on the opposite foot Arky is ranked as a top15 team, but their RPI is low)
5) Bad overall record
6) The plethora of automatic qualifying teams
7) 7ish SEC teams are already locked in
8) Bad start took us off everyone's radar
9) We're Auburn, and its 2013
Posted by AUtigerNOLA
New Orleans, LA
Member since Apr 2011
17296 posts
Posted on 5/19/13 at 6:40 pm to
Exactly
Posted by ellitor
Member since Sep 2012
14285 posts
Posted on 5/19/13 at 6:40 pm to
quote:

1) Finish last in our division 2) Bad conference record 3) Poor OOC quality 4) No real signature wins (you can argue for the MSU and OM wins, but they are low in the polls;on the opposite foot Arky is ranked as a top15 team, but their RPI is low) 5) Bad overall record 6) The plethora of automatic qualifying teams 7) 7ish SEC teams are already locked in 8) Bad start took us off everyone's radar 9) We're Auburn, and its 2013
Counter points

1) If you look at conference wide yes but if you look at West only opponents, which will have 6 and possible all 7 teams in the NCAAs if TAMU makes a long run in the SEC Tourney, then you have a different story. Since you only play 4 of the 7 teams in the other division conference schedules are not made equal nor should they be judged equally. In West only games Auburn is 5th in the division at 8-10, comfortably ahead of Bama 6-11 and TAMU 5-12
2)a number of SEC team have made the NCAAs with a 13-17 SEC record.
3)OOC quality may be poor in your eyes but it is still quite a bit better than OOC schedules for most bubble teams
4)The only reason Arky's RPI is so low is they had a brain fart in an early tourney loss to RPI 244 Pacific. You throw that one out, which the committee will do in seeding Arky, then you have a top 20 RPI.
5) 33-22 is not a bad overall record. It's not great but it's not bad either
6) there are 34 at large spots and Auburn is on of the 34 best of the rest teams in the nation.
7) 8 SEC teams are virtually locked in but that does not matter. The SEC has put 9 and I am pretty sure 10 in the NCAAs before
8) Fair enough but that makes winning 6 of the last 9 versus teams in the field all that more impressive.
9)
This post was edited on 5/19/13 at 6:42 pm
Posted by AUtigerNOLA
New Orleans, LA
Member since Apr 2011
17296 posts
Posted on 5/19/13 at 6:45 pm to
Look man if we lose the first game in the sec tourney and get knocked out, It's not a guarantee we are in the tourney. I would bet against us too.
Posted by The Nino
Member since Jan 2010
21818 posts
Posted on 5/19/13 at 6:53 pm to
I'm not looking to get into a point/counterpoint discussion. Rig wanted something more than "we lost to bad teams" so I threw out what was on the top of my head. I can agree with some of what you say...the only problem is there won't be an Auburn fan in the conference room to make those counterpoints. Our bads might overshadow our goods. We'll see in a couple days
Posted by ellitor
Member since Sep 2012
14285 posts
Posted on 5/19/13 at 7:01 pm to
quote:

Look man if we lose the first game in the sec tourney and get knocked out, It's not a guarantee we are in the tourney. I would bet against us too.
You are right. Not a guarantee, but I would bet on us getting in. You might also if you look at the resumes of the other bubble teams. Here is the reality. Only about 25 or 30 teams deserve to make a national championship tournament. That means you have 35 to 40 average to slightly above average teams getting in the 64 team field that don't deserve it and Auburn is as good if not better than a number of them.
This post was edited on 5/19/13 at 7:02 pm
Posted by GenesChin
The Promise Land
Member since Feb 2012
37855 posts
Posted on 5/19/13 at 8:48 pm to
Just hard to swallow a 13-17 SEC team that is the 10th seed (by a small margin) in the tournament not winning in the SEC Tourny and still making it in.

How you stack up in your conference has been a deciding point in previous selections according to writers out there.

This post was edited on 5/19/13 at 8:53 pm
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