re: 2022 Recruiting Thread

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As I said before they rate based on where they think someone will get drafted not on the impact of the game or what they will do in college.

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Even this is mostly flawed/bullshite logic. For example, ranked immediately ahead of McPherson on the composite rankings is the 188th ranked WR in the country. Last year there were 34 WR's drafted, and 1 Kicker (McPherson's older brother, ironically). Generally speaking, there is at least 1 Kicker drafted every year - with most years seeing 2, sometimes 3 drafted (in 2012 there were 4 Kickers drafted). Now, the probability analysis is more complicated than I'm making it out to be...but what would you hedge your bets on? The 188th ranked WR being one of ~30-35 WR's drafted (that is generally the average range for the position) OR the #1 ranked Kicker being one of ~1-3 Kickers drafted?

And WR is actually a pretty favorable positional example for the "draft angle" logic. Using other positions, like OT, is much less favorable. For example, ranked 5 slots higher is the 154th ranked OT in the country. Last year was a high mark with 27 OT's drafted, but in most years the number is actually ~20 or less. In 2017 there were only 15 OT's drafted.

There is truth to the logic that often times the ~1-3 Kickers that end up being drafted aren't among the #1-3 ranked Kickers in their class, but just off recent years I can point out Daniel Carlson and Evan McPherson who were both ranked #1 out of HS by Kohl's, and were ultimately drafted as the #1 Kicker in their draft class. Anders Carlson will get to test this theory as well this season, as he was the #1 ranked Kicker in his HS class and is in position to get drafted, just like his brother was.

No they are not. Most aren't even former football coaches just guys that's been on the recruiting services for years that knows what a D1 athlete looks like. Then of course the updates come through out the year and move players. Like if you are 3 star and Bama, AU, UGA, and LSU are all one you. The people that do the ranking will be like we missed something with this kid and move him up 50-70 places and be a 4 star or something like that.

I agree with the skill and ability angle but that can be a disguise as well and can really come up with some "bust" which would destroy the creditability of the rating system. My example before was a 5 star LB that is 6'4" 250lbs coming out of high school but makes the wrong choice and goes to a school that plays a 4-2-5 defense requiring him to play in space when in reality he'd be better in a 3-4 defense as a pure run stopper that rarely has any coverage responsibilities. Hence making that player possibly able to play on first down and never living up to that "5 star" hype and possibly going undrafted or in the later rounds. Which would be a bust in the eyes of the recruiting service.

I will give them some credit they do a very good job with the top 100, a decent job on the top 250, but very poor from 300-700.

And by position group as well like WR and DB. You have close to 60-70 4 star WRs. That’s crazy. Because they don’t want to miss on a kid so they overrate them. Probably the top 4-5 should be 5 stars and end the 4’s around 20ish. That’s been my complaint about the we’ve got talent at WR argument. The 40th WR doesn’t even compare to the 14 WR in a class but both are 4 stars. We’ve struggled to get any inside the top 20. I think our highest rated WR is Kobe Hudson and was just a blind rating based on his athleticism at the QB position and he was 19th his year. Probably should have been around 35th or so. Just my opinion

KN has some notes on a couple of guys. Just going to lightly summarize.

- Auburn might be leading for Tre Donaldson. KN could be close to putting in a CB.
- Auburn is making up ground with Eston Harris, but there’s a long way to go since he commits late October.

It would be awesome for Harsin/Pearl to land Donaldson

I'm looking at as who we overcome to get him

He intends to. That’s all that’s known

Wow.

So Auburn basketball is watching Tre Donaldson and Zion Cruz on the 19th. And Auburn football will be watching Tre Donaldson and Omari Kelly

FWIW, zero clue on Kelly. Wouldn’t at all be surprised if it’s Bama

Definitely. Leaning Kelly to Auburn. Waiting to see what 247 sites say about him. I have no other insight