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re: 2019 Football Recruiting Thread - Auburn Goes 4/7 & Land Brothers

Posted on 12/15/18 at 8:48 am to
Posted by TigerPaw1
Chattanooga, TN
Member since Apr 2011
16979 posts
Posted on 12/15/18 at 8:48 am to
quote:

We have a serious BUCK problem. This past season, we didn't have a single Dee Ford, Jeff Holland, sho nuff pass rush specialist. We have a bunch of 280lb DE/DT hybrids that can't get to the freaking QB... Call me crazy but deep down we all have to acknowledge this issue.

I mean I literally just acknowledged it as an issue

I just think the pieces are there just didn't produce this year. Need one of Coe, Bryant, Moultry & Jibunor to take that next step in 2019

If we land Hall then we are adding 2 more pass rushers in Hall & Wooden
Posted by TigerPaw1
Chattanooga, TN
Member since Apr 2011
16979 posts
Posted on 12/15/18 at 8:50 am to
The Nakobe Dean thread is fun reading material for those into Bama/UGA flame wars
Posted by TheJones
Member since Nov 2009
33296 posts
Posted on 12/15/18 at 10:16 am to
So far in 2018 (12 games), Auburn is 15th in the country in Sacks with 35. Tied for 3rd in the SEC with Texas A&M, behind Alabama and MSU.

Auburn had:
2018: 35 sacks in 12 games (Coe: 7*)
2017: 37 sacks in 14 games (Holland: 10)
2016: 25 sacks in 13 games (Lawson: 9)
2015: 19 sacks in 13 games (McKinzey: 5)
2014: 21 sacks in 13 games (Frost/Lambert: 3.5)
2013: 32 sacks in 14 games (Ford: 10.5)

*Final # because he’s unlikely for the bowl game.
This post was edited on 12/15/18 at 11:16 am
Posted by AU24
Toomers Corner
Member since Dec 2014
4523 posts
Posted on 12/15/18 at 10:17 am to
Paw i remember KN posting that if AU missed on Kelly Bryant that Auburn would definitely bw interested in Khalil Tate. He KN or anyone else done a update on Tate?
Posted by TheJones
Member since Nov 2009
33296 posts
Posted on 12/15/18 at 10:21 am to
3rd down conversion rates on defense

2018: 34%
2017: 33%
2016: 35%
2015: 44%
2014: 36%
2013: 33%

3rd down % vs ranked opponents:

2018: 41%
2017: 35%
2016: 41%
2015: 40%
2014: 44%
2013: 29% (wow, this one surprised me)

Best two years percentage wise are clearly ‘13 and ‘17 but our sacks/game is actually higher in 2018 through 12 games. Additionally, 2015 and 2018 are comparable despite Auburn recording 16 more sacks in 2018. Or, if you want to throw out 2015 because the total conversion rate is way off, you could look at 2016 where both sets are comparable despite Auburn recording 10 more sacks in 2018. I’m not sure we can point to sacks as the issue for our 3rd down defense not matching those better two years.
This post was edited on 12/15/18 at 11:06 am
Posted by GoCrazyAuburn
Member since Feb 2010
34861 posts
Posted on 12/15/18 at 11:46 am to
I’d be curious what the sack numbers by just DL looked like compared to years past. I feel like this year we had a lot more sacks from LB and DB’s than we ever have.
Posted by AUCE05
Member since Dec 2009
42557 posts
Posted on 12/15/18 at 11:50 am to
Last article I read said he and Noel were not getting alone, and most internal sources feels he will transfer. No landing spot mentioned.
Posted by TheJones
Member since Nov 2009
33296 posts
Posted on 12/15/18 at 11:51 am to
You’d subtract about 4 from last year and 5.5 from this year (for DBs). Smoke had 2 but those were designed end rushes. You could decide for yourself on that.

Technically Holland was listed as a LB for the official stats so it’s tough to throw out LB stats because we move the buck around so much. I’d have to watch the film on each sack to determine that and I’m not sure I want to do that

But strictly off of DL listings from this year and last:
2018: 16.5
2017: 12
This post was edited on 12/15/18 at 12:04 pm
Posted by jangalang
Member since Dec 2014
36243 posts
Posted on 12/15/18 at 12:07 pm to
Forget sacks, we win tbe LSU game if we can pressure the QB. We had on paper one of the best DL’s in the country in tbe preseason and the results were kinda meh in both run and pass support.
Posted by TigerPaw1
Chattanooga, TN
Member since Apr 2011
16979 posts
Posted on 12/15/18 at 12:19 pm to
quote:

I’m not sure we can point to sacks as the issue for our 3rd down defense not matching those better two years.

I'm pretty sure AU blitzed more this year to generate this pressure than they did the two previous ones which left more 1 on 1 matchups that we lost

But I need to rewatch to actually dig into it
Posted by TheJones
Member since Nov 2009
33296 posts
Posted on 12/15/18 at 12:26 pm to
Correct.

Ultimately, as noted by the stats, the amount of sacks doesn’t really tell you enough. But we can say that # of sacks is less important than when they occur.

We needed probably 10 sacks this year to win games. We didn’t get all 10 of them. Football is a situational sport so they’re not all created equally. But on the flip side of the blitz argument is that if we’re blitzing more and generating more sacks then we’re leaving our backend more vulnerable. But the conversion data doesn’t necessarily support the idea that we were worse if you look at 14, 15, and 16 compared to this year.

FWIW, when I started digging into sacks I was expecting to be able to support Brannigan’s theory easily. But I think there’s more going on
This post was edited on 12/15/18 at 12:41 pm
Posted by TheJones
Member since Nov 2009
33296 posts
Posted on 12/15/18 at 12:33 pm to
quote:

Forget sacks, we win tbe LSU game if we can pressure the QB


Totally agree. And here’s where the data is more interesting.

QB Hurries

2018: 40
2017: 65
2016: 86
2015: 78
2014: 85
2013: 109

We’ll tack on to that number in the bowl game and it’s worth noting that ‘17 and ‘13 were 14 game seasons but the difference is striking
Posted by TheJones
Member since Nov 2009
33296 posts
Posted on 12/15/18 at 12:39 pm to
Top performers:

2018: Davidson - 10
2017: Holland - 22
2016: Lawson- 24 (Adams - 15)
2015: McKinzey - 20
2014: Daniel - 15
2013: Ford - 17

Hurries are a little messier because hurries =\= broken plays. And I think we can all remember the heartaches that have come from near Lawson sacks but there’s some big differences there and that’s a chunk of plays where the QB was more comfortable

One last thing that I think is interesting: I think our defense was on the field a lot more than some past seasons and that should probably enter the discussion around some of these stats
This post was edited on 12/15/18 at 1:09 pm
Posted by jangalang
Member since Dec 2014
36243 posts
Posted on 12/15/18 at 1:08 pm to
quote:

We’ll tack on to that number in the bowl game and it’s worth noting that ‘17 and ‘13 were 14 game seasons but the difference is striking

Yep. That’s a significant difference. We were better at finishing off the QB hurries, but it did seem like we were affecting the QB less than normal.

Big Kat still needs to learn how to finish though.
Posted by AuSteeler
montgomery. AL
Member since Jan 2015
2989 posts
Posted on 12/15/18 at 2:08 pm to
quote:

I'm pretty sure AU blitzed more this year to generate this pressure than they did the two previous ones which left more 1 on 1 matchups that we lost But I need to rewatch to actually dig into it


Please don't. It will ruin your holiday season. :)

Looking at the hurries stats, this year we were way down from other years, which makes sense. I can remember so many games where we simpply left the QB in a clean pocket, to complete so many 3rd down plays, in crucial parts of the game.

amazing how much difference it makes in getting the D off the field. ofc our offense contributed to this w so many 3 and outs...
Posted by RandySavage
Member since May 2012
30814 posts
Posted on 12/15/18 at 2:21 pm to
Even when we blitzed it wasn't that successful. Big Kat or Moultry have got to figure it out. Bryant has shown some slight flashes, Moultry has been really poor.
Posted by AUtigR24
Happy Hour
Member since Apr 2011
19755 posts
Posted on 12/15/18 at 2:28 pm to
Rushing the qb is definitely something we can improver on but i'm more concerned about stuffing the run. We got gashed by a few teams this year
Posted by TheJones
Member since Nov 2009
33296 posts
Posted on 12/15/18 at 2:33 pm to
This is probably the most agreement there’s ever been on this board
Posted by TigerPaw1
Chattanooga, TN
Member since Apr 2011
16979 posts
Posted on 12/15/18 at 3:27 pm to
FYI if that super secret visitor was to happen it's not Eboigbe. He's visiting Bama as expected this weekend
Posted by TigerPaw1
Chattanooga, TN
Member since Apr 2011
16979 posts
Posted on 12/15/18 at 4:44 pm to
Still no word from Putnam. Makes me think he really hadn't made a decision yet which is probably good news considering the Clemson buzz
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