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re: 2019 Football Recruiting Thread - Auburn Goes 4/7 & Land Brothers
Posted on 12/15/18 at 8:48 am to BuckFama334
Posted on 12/15/18 at 8:48 am to BuckFama334
quote:
We have a serious BUCK problem. This past season, we didn't have a single Dee Ford, Jeff Holland, sho nuff pass rush specialist. We have a bunch of 280lb DE/DT hybrids that can't get to the freaking QB... Call me crazy but deep down we all have to acknowledge this issue.
I mean I literally just acknowledged it as an issue
I just think the pieces are there just didn't produce this year. Need one of Coe, Bryant, Moultry & Jibunor to take that next step in 2019
If we land Hall then we are adding 2 more pass rushers in Hall & Wooden
Posted on 12/15/18 at 8:50 am to TigerPaw1
The Nakobe Dean thread is fun reading material for those into Bama/UGA flame wars
Posted on 12/15/18 at 10:16 am to TigerPaw1
So far in 2018 (12 games), Auburn is 15th in the country in Sacks with 35. Tied for 3rd in the SEC with Texas A&M, behind Alabama and MSU.
Auburn had:
2018: 35 sacks in 12 games (Coe: 7*)
2017: 37 sacks in 14 games (Holland: 10)
2016: 25 sacks in 13 games (Lawson: 9)
2015: 19 sacks in 13 games (McKinzey: 5)
2014: 21 sacks in 13 games (Frost/Lambert: 3.5)
2013: 32 sacks in 14 games (Ford: 10.5)
*Final # because he’s unlikely for the bowl game.
Auburn had:
2018: 35 sacks in 12 games (Coe: 7*)
2017: 37 sacks in 14 games (Holland: 10)
2016: 25 sacks in 13 games (Lawson: 9)
2015: 19 sacks in 13 games (McKinzey: 5)
2014: 21 sacks in 13 games (Frost/Lambert: 3.5)
2013: 32 sacks in 14 games (Ford: 10.5)
*Final # because he’s unlikely for the bowl game.
This post was edited on 12/15/18 at 11:16 am
Posted on 12/15/18 at 10:17 am to TigerPaw1
Paw i remember KN posting that if AU missed on Kelly Bryant that Auburn would definitely bw interested in Khalil Tate. He KN or anyone else done a update on Tate?
Posted on 12/15/18 at 10:21 am to TheJones
3rd down conversion rates on defense
2018: 34%
2017: 33%
2016: 35%
2015: 44%
2014: 36%
2013: 33%
3rd down % vs ranked opponents:
2018: 41%
2017: 35%
2016: 41%
2015: 40%
2014: 44%
2013: 29% (wow, this one surprised me)
Best two years percentage wise are clearly ‘13 and ‘17 but our sacks/game is actually higher in 2018 through 12 games. Additionally, 2015 and 2018 are comparable despite Auburn recording 16 more sacks in 2018. Or, if you want to throw out 2015 because the total conversion rate is way off, you could look at 2016 where both sets are comparable despite Auburn recording 10 more sacks in 2018. I’m not sure we can point to sacks as the issue for our 3rd down defense not matching those better two years.
2018: 34%
2017: 33%
2016: 35%
2015: 44%
2014: 36%
2013: 33%
3rd down % vs ranked opponents:
2018: 41%
2017: 35%
2016: 41%
2015: 40%
2014: 44%
2013: 29% (wow, this one surprised me)
Best two years percentage wise are clearly ‘13 and ‘17 but our sacks/game is actually higher in 2018 through 12 games. Additionally, 2015 and 2018 are comparable despite Auburn recording 16 more sacks in 2018. Or, if you want to throw out 2015 because the total conversion rate is way off, you could look at 2016 where both sets are comparable despite Auburn recording 10 more sacks in 2018. I’m not sure we can point to sacks as the issue for our 3rd down defense not matching those better two years.
This post was edited on 12/15/18 at 11:06 am
Posted on 12/15/18 at 11:46 am to TheJones
I’d be curious what the sack numbers by just DL looked like compared to years past. I feel like this year we had a lot more sacks from LB and DB’s than we ever have.
Posted on 12/15/18 at 11:50 am to AU24
Last article I read said he and Noel were not getting alone, and most internal sources feels he will transfer. No landing spot mentioned.
Posted on 12/15/18 at 11:51 am to GoCrazyAuburn
You’d subtract about 4 from last year and 5.5 from this year (for DBs). Smoke had 2 but those were designed end rushes. You could decide for yourself on that.
Technically Holland was listed as a LB for the official stats so it’s tough to throw out LB stats because we move the buck around so much. I’d have to watch the film on each sack to determine that and I’m not sure I want to do that
But strictly off of DL listings from this year and last:
2018: 16.5
2017: 12
Technically Holland was listed as a LB for the official stats so it’s tough to throw out LB stats because we move the buck around so much. I’d have to watch the film on each sack to determine that and I’m not sure I want to do that
But strictly off of DL listings from this year and last:
2018: 16.5
2017: 12
This post was edited on 12/15/18 at 12:04 pm
Posted on 12/15/18 at 12:07 pm to TheJones
Forget sacks, we win tbe LSU game if we can pressure the QB. We had on paper one of the best DL’s in the country in tbe preseason and the results were kinda meh in both run and pass support.
Posted on 12/15/18 at 12:19 pm to TheJones
quote:
I’m not sure we can point to sacks as the issue for our 3rd down defense not matching those better two years.
I'm pretty sure AU blitzed more this year to generate this pressure than they did the two previous ones which left more 1 on 1 matchups that we lost
But I need to rewatch to actually dig into it
Posted on 12/15/18 at 12:26 pm to TigerPaw1
Correct.
Ultimately, as noted by the stats, the amount of sacks doesn’t really tell you enough. But we can say that # of sacks is less important than when they occur.
We needed probably 10 sacks this year to win games. We didn’t get all 10 of them. Football is a situational sport so they’re not all created equally. But on the flip side of the blitz argument is that if we’re blitzing more and generating more sacks then we’re leaving our backend more vulnerable. But the conversion data doesn’t necessarily support the idea that we were worse if you look at 14, 15, and 16 compared to this year.
FWIW, when I started digging into sacks I was expecting to be able to support Brannigan’s theory easily. But I think there’s more going on
Ultimately, as noted by the stats, the amount of sacks doesn’t really tell you enough. But we can say that # of sacks is less important than when they occur.
We needed probably 10 sacks this year to win games. We didn’t get all 10 of them. Football is a situational sport so they’re not all created equally. But on the flip side of the blitz argument is that if we’re blitzing more and generating more sacks then we’re leaving our backend more vulnerable. But the conversion data doesn’t necessarily support the idea that we were worse if you look at 14, 15, and 16 compared to this year.
FWIW, when I started digging into sacks I was expecting to be able to support Brannigan’s theory easily. But I think there’s more going on
This post was edited on 12/15/18 at 12:41 pm
Posted on 12/15/18 at 12:33 pm to jangalang
quote:
Forget sacks, we win tbe LSU game if we can pressure the QB
Totally agree. And here’s where the data is more interesting.
QB Hurries
2018: 40
2017: 65
2016: 86
2015: 78
2014: 85
2013: 109
We’ll tack on to that number in the bowl game and it’s worth noting that ‘17 and ‘13 were 14 game seasons but the difference is striking
Posted on 12/15/18 at 12:39 pm to TheJones
Top performers:
2018: Davidson - 10
2017: Holland - 22
2016: Lawson- 24 (Adams - 15)
2015: McKinzey - 20
2014: Daniel - 15
2013: Ford - 17
Hurries are a little messier because hurries =\= broken plays. And I think we can all remember the heartaches that have come from near Lawson sacks but there’s some big differences there and that’s a chunk of plays where the QB was more comfortable
One last thing that I think is interesting: I think our defense was on the field a lot more than some past seasons and that should probably enter the discussion around some of these stats
2018: Davidson - 10
2017: Holland - 22
2016: Lawson- 24 (Adams - 15)
2015: McKinzey - 20
2014: Daniel - 15
2013: Ford - 17
Hurries are a little messier because hurries =\= broken plays. And I think we can all remember the heartaches that have come from near Lawson sacks but there’s some big differences there and that’s a chunk of plays where the QB was more comfortable
One last thing that I think is interesting: I think our defense was on the field a lot more than some past seasons and that should probably enter the discussion around some of these stats
This post was edited on 12/15/18 at 1:09 pm
Posted on 12/15/18 at 1:08 pm to TheJones
quote:
We’ll tack on to that number in the bowl game and it’s worth noting that ‘17 and ‘13 were 14 game seasons but the difference is striking
Yep. That’s a significant difference. We were better at finishing off the QB hurries, but it did seem like we were affecting the QB less than normal.
Big Kat still needs to learn how to finish though.
Posted on 12/15/18 at 2:08 pm to jangalang
quote:
I'm pretty sure AU blitzed more this year to generate this pressure than they did the two previous ones which left more 1 on 1 matchups that we lost But I need to rewatch to actually dig into it
Please don't. It will ruin your holiday season. :)
Looking at the hurries stats, this year we were way down from other years, which makes sense. I can remember so many games where we simpply left the QB in a clean pocket, to complete so many 3rd down plays, in crucial parts of the game.
amazing how much difference it makes in getting the D off the field. ofc our offense contributed to this w so many 3 and outs...
Posted on 12/15/18 at 2:21 pm to AuSteeler
Even when we blitzed it wasn't that successful. Big Kat or Moultry have got to figure it out. Bryant has shown some slight flashes, Moultry has been really poor.
Posted on 12/15/18 at 2:28 pm to RandySavage
Rushing the qb is definitely something we can improver on but i'm more concerned about stuffing the run. We got gashed by a few teams this year
Posted on 12/15/18 at 2:33 pm to AUtigR24
This is probably the most agreement there’s ever been on this board
Posted on 12/15/18 at 3:27 pm to TheJones
FYI if that super secret visitor was to happen it's not Eboigbe. He's visiting Bama as expected this weekend
Posted on 12/15/18 at 4:44 pm to TigerPaw1
Still no word from Putnam. Makes me think he really hadn't made a decision yet which is probably good news considering the Clemson buzz
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