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Tua and the Draft - Deep Dive
Posted on 12/10/19 at 1:19 pm
Posted on 12/10/19 at 1:19 pm
We all love Mock Drafts and generic "where will he land" scenarios, but as the rumors of Tua seriously considering return thicken it's probably worth looking at the NFL right now and the 1st round and figuring out if that really makes sense? The conclusion - yes, it very much makes sense.
Everyone wants/needs/craves a franchise QB. It's the holy grail. This leads many to say "of course Tua will get drafted high even off the injury, somebody is going to take that risk". Here is the problem there - if a GM uses a Top 10 pick on a guy, that's his job. That pick is tied directly to him, and if it doesn't work out he is done. So here is the Top 10 as of today
1. Bengals - will draft QB, probably Joe Burrow
2. Giants - will NOT draft QB
3. Redskins - will NOT draft QB
4. Dolphins - will probably draft QB (not necessarily with this pick, though)
5. Lions - will NOT draft QB
6. Cardinals - will NOT draft QB
7. Jaguars - will NOT draft QB
8. Falcons - will NOT draft QB
9. Jets - will NOT draft QB
10. Chargers - could possibly draft QB
11. Panthers - could possibly draft QB
12. Broncos - will probably NOT draft QB
13. Eagles - will NOT draft QB
14. Colts - will NOT draft QB
15. Raiders - will NOT draft QB
So - out of the Top 15 you are truly down to the Bengals, Dolphins and possibly Chargers or Panthers.
- Bengals : almost certainly drafting Burrow - OUT
- Dolphins : loved Tua before, but would be a big risk for them to use the value of the #4 pick on Tua post-injury. They still could, but it is not at all a certainty. They could use it on someone else and then wait and hope to grab him later with one of their future 1st round picks, or package those to move into the mid teens if he is still there. But that would be a risk. Or they could just go ahead and draft Herbert there.
Then you drop to #10/#11 with the Panthers and Chargers, both teams who could go the QB route if they like it but are far from certain.
So at this point you are down to
16. Bucs - could draft QB
17. Browns - will NOT draft QB
18. Raiders - will NOT draft QB
19. Titans - will probably NOT draft QB
20. Jaguars - will NOT draft QB
The other thought floating around is that a "smart" team will draft up and get Tua in the mid-1st round (Saints, Patriots, etc). The problem with that thinking is those teams generally don't spend their 1st round pick, and certainly don't package multiple picks to move up, for a future need when they have pressing needs now to win a Super Bowl.
Long story short, there are a LOT of 1st-3rd year QBs in the NFL right now. That means there are a bunch of teams that are not going to be looking to draft QBs. Once you remove the Bengals from that group you realize there are only a handful of teams that would use their 1st pick on a QB, and the Dolphins have 3 of the 32 1st round picks. If they go with Herbert at #4, the board for a QB start looks more and more like very end of the 1st round.
You can see why there is some serious concern from Tua and his family that he could fall and then not find a place to land for a while.
Everyone wants/needs/craves a franchise QB. It's the holy grail. This leads many to say "of course Tua will get drafted high even off the injury, somebody is going to take that risk". Here is the problem there - if a GM uses a Top 10 pick on a guy, that's his job. That pick is tied directly to him, and if it doesn't work out he is done. So here is the Top 10 as of today
1. Bengals - will draft QB, probably Joe Burrow
2. Giants - will NOT draft QB
3. Redskins - will NOT draft QB
4. Dolphins - will probably draft QB (not necessarily with this pick, though)
5. Lions - will NOT draft QB
6. Cardinals - will NOT draft QB
7. Jaguars - will NOT draft QB
8. Falcons - will NOT draft QB
9. Jets - will NOT draft QB
10. Chargers - could possibly draft QB
11. Panthers - could possibly draft QB
12. Broncos - will probably NOT draft QB
13. Eagles - will NOT draft QB
14. Colts - will NOT draft QB
15. Raiders - will NOT draft QB
So - out of the Top 15 you are truly down to the Bengals, Dolphins and possibly Chargers or Panthers.
- Bengals : almost certainly drafting Burrow - OUT
- Dolphins : loved Tua before, but would be a big risk for them to use the value of the #4 pick on Tua post-injury. They still could, but it is not at all a certainty. They could use it on someone else and then wait and hope to grab him later with one of their future 1st round picks, or package those to move into the mid teens if he is still there. But that would be a risk. Or they could just go ahead and draft Herbert there.
Then you drop to #10/#11 with the Panthers and Chargers, both teams who could go the QB route if they like it but are far from certain.
So at this point you are down to
16. Bucs - could draft QB
17. Browns - will NOT draft QB
18. Raiders - will NOT draft QB
19. Titans - will probably NOT draft QB
20. Jaguars - will NOT draft QB
The other thought floating around is that a "smart" team will draft up and get Tua in the mid-1st round (Saints, Patriots, etc). The problem with that thinking is those teams generally don't spend their 1st round pick, and certainly don't package multiple picks to move up, for a future need when they have pressing needs now to win a Super Bowl.
Long story short, there are a LOT of 1st-3rd year QBs in the NFL right now. That means there are a bunch of teams that are not going to be looking to draft QBs. Once you remove the Bengals from that group you realize there are only a handful of teams that would use their 1st pick on a QB, and the Dolphins have 3 of the 32 1st round picks. If they go with Herbert at #4, the board for a QB start looks more and more like very end of the 1st round.
You can see why there is some serious concern from Tua and his family that he could fall and then not find a place to land for a while.
This post was edited on 12/10/19 at 1:23 pm
4
Posted on 12/10/19 at 1:24 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Good analysis George
Posted on 12/10/19 at 1:33 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Starting QBs from the 2017-2019 NFL Drafts
Bears - Mitch Trubisky
Chiefs - Pat Mahomes
Texans - Deshaun Watson
Browns - Baker Mayfield
Jets - Sam Darnold
Bills - Josh Allen
Cardinals - Kyler Murray
Giants - Daniel Jones
Redskins - Dwayne Haskins
Broncos - Drew Lock
Ravens - Lamar Jackson
Panthers - Kyle Allen
Jaguars - Gardner Minshew
Teams with entrenched QBs
Patriots - Tom Brady
Saints - Drew Brees
Falcons - Matt Ryan
49ers - Jimmy Garappollo
Seahawks - Russell Wilson
Packers - Aaron Rodgers
Vikings - Kirk Cousins
Cowboys - Dak Prescott
Rams - Jared Goff
Eagles - Carson Wentz
Raiders - Derek Carr
Lions - Matt Stafford
That is 25 of the 32 teams right there
It leaves the following :
Possibly?
- Steelers (no 1st round pick, traded for Minkah)
- Colts (though probably not)
- Titans (looks more and more like Tannehill stays)
- Chargers (who knows when they pull the trigger)
Definitely
- Bengals (drafting Burrow)
- Dolphins
- Bucs
It's possible that the only 2 teams for sure drafting an early in the 1st QB are the Bengals and Dolphins.
Bears - Mitch Trubisky
Chiefs - Pat Mahomes
Texans - Deshaun Watson
Browns - Baker Mayfield
Jets - Sam Darnold
Bills - Josh Allen
Cardinals - Kyler Murray
Giants - Daniel Jones
Redskins - Dwayne Haskins
Broncos - Drew Lock
Ravens - Lamar Jackson
Panthers - Kyle Allen
Jaguars - Gardner Minshew
Teams with entrenched QBs
Patriots - Tom Brady
Saints - Drew Brees
Falcons - Matt Ryan
49ers - Jimmy Garappollo
Seahawks - Russell Wilson
Packers - Aaron Rodgers
Vikings - Kirk Cousins
Cowboys - Dak Prescott
Rams - Jared Goff
Eagles - Carson Wentz
Raiders - Derek Carr
Lions - Matt Stafford
That is 25 of the 32 teams right there
It leaves the following :
Possibly?
- Steelers (no 1st round pick, traded for Minkah)
- Colts (though probably not)
- Titans (looks more and more like Tannehill stays)
- Chargers (who knows when they pull the trigger)
Definitely
- Bengals (drafting Burrow)
- Dolphins
- Bucs
It's possible that the only 2 teams for sure drafting an early in the 1st QB are the Bengals and Dolphins.
This post was edited on 12/10/19 at 1:48 pm
Posted on 12/10/19 at 1:34 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Appreciate the effort but you just don't know what some NFL GMs and coaches are going to do. The Redskins could easily draft a QB. They'll have a new head coach who may not care that they took Haskins in the 1st last year just like Kingsbury took Murray even though they took Rosen the year before. Same with the Giants if Shurmur and Gettlemen get fired. Falcons could be looking to draft Ryan's eventual replacement, he's getting up there and not all QBs are going to play into their 40's like Brees and Brady. Chargers and Panthers are both possibilities like you said. Colts and Raiders could both definitely decide to move on from Brissett and Carr so they could both possibly be options.
Posted on 12/10/19 at 1:38 pm to RollTide33
quote:
Appreciate the effort but you just don't know what some NFL GMs and coaches are going to do.
Exactly - that's the point. There are only a couple of absolutes out there on teams that will be drafting QBs and drafting them high, and one of them is basically already concluded (Bengals and Burrow). All of those are possibilities, but none of them are near certainties. And a lot of those you named would be drafting or trading in to draft in the late 1st. The Falcons could absolutely look to draft Ryan's replacement, but there is 0% chance they use the #6 pick on it. The Pats and Saints might use their 1st round pick on it, but it'd be super late in the 1st.
Like I said, it doesn't mean he won't go, but it just shows that his uncertainty combined with the board and the uncertainty of it really throws things up in the air..........where as if he's healthy and people know what they are getting he is clearly getting picked in the Top 10 somewhere by someone.
I just don't think they are going to hear from anyone (not honestly, at least) that they can be certain Tua will be drafted in the Top 10 or even Top 15. And it will be up to them to decide whether they are ok with that risk (and possible outcome) or whether he wants to come back and accept the risk of another injury with the possible reward of a no doubt Top 5/10 pick.
This post was edited on 12/10/19 at 1:39 pm
Posted on 12/10/19 at 1:40 pm to RollTide33
Tampa is the wildcard for Tua if he goes. They might have to trade up just a little or maybe get him at their current slot.
Posted on 12/10/19 at 1:41 pm to SummerOfGeorge
The Jan 20 deadline will make Tua stay if anything. I think it will be too early for any NFL medical team to clear him.
Since you went through the trouble, let's assume he is cleared.
#4 might be too rich for the Dolphins, but they will trade up with their draft collateral to get him.
Raiders are in need of a QB. New stadium, new city, Carr can take them so far.
Carolina, new coach will determine if they keep Cam or not. Only 20 mil owed him next yr, which is cheap, if he is HEALTHY.
Chargers, I think Rivers is their QB until he can't do it anymore.
Bucs will need a QB.
My bet is the Dolphins somewhere in the first. Team wants him, fan base wants him.
Since you went through the trouble, let's assume he is cleared.
#4 might be too rich for the Dolphins, but they will trade up with their draft collateral to get him.
Raiders are in need of a QB. New stadium, new city, Carr can take them so far.
Carolina, new coach will determine if they keep Cam or not. Only 20 mil owed him next yr, which is cheap, if he is HEALTHY.
Chargers, I think Rivers is their QB until he can't do it anymore.
Bucs will need a QB.
My bet is the Dolphins somewhere in the first. Team wants him, fan base wants him.
Posted on 12/10/19 at 1:43 pm to JoseyWalesTheOutlaw
quote:
Tampa is the wildcard for Tua if he goes. They might have to trade up just a little or maybe get him at their current slot.
Yea, I would have to think the teams that they are looking at and trying to figure out are
- Miami : do they still take him at #4, do they do another position at #4 and move up to get him at #10-12, do they draft Herbert, do they decide to punt on QB in 2020 and wait on the 2021 class
- Tampa : pretty clearly going to move on from Jameis, Arians is there, seems like a pretty logical place to land and at a spot where it would seem to make sense
- LAC/Carolina/Indy : similar to Tampa in pick position but not as clear in terms of whether they will (a) be in the market for a QB or (b) want to use their 1st round pick on a QB
This post was edited on 12/10/19 at 1:44 pm
Posted on 12/10/19 at 1:48 pm to JoseyWalesTheOutlaw
quote:
Tampa is the wildcard for Tua if he goes.
Hope not, as a huge fan of Bruce Arians from his time as the HC of the Cardinals, Tua is not what Arians wants in a QB. First, he hates rookie and inexperienced QB's. He will not play them. Then, he likes the traditional QB, 6-3+ stand in the pocket guy. If Arians has a say, they won't draft a QB that high.
If Arians gets his way, he will trade to get a veteran, obiously, imo.
This post was edited on 12/10/19 at 1:51 pm
Posted on 12/10/19 at 1:53 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Miami clearly sets the board - they have the highest unknown pick, they have 3 1st round picks, they have the most needs and they likely will be back in the early 1st round against in 2021 in a draft with more great QBs
Posted on 12/10/19 at 1:54 pm to phaz
quote:
Tua is not what Arians wants in a QB.
Tua is what every coach will want in their quarterback minus the injury bug.
quote:
[quote]He will not play them
Even Arians would start Tua game one. Saban is the exception opting for bad quarterback play during Tua's freshman season. Bet he would've done things differently if he could go back.
Posted on 12/10/19 at 2:09 pm to phaz
quote:
Hope not, as a huge fan of Bruce Arians from his time as the HC of the Cardinals, Tua is not what Arians wants in a QB. First, he hates rookie and inexperienced QB's. He will not play them. Then, he likes the traditional QB, 6-3+ stand in the pocket guy. If Arians has a say, they won't draft a QB that high.
If Arians gets his way, he will trade to get a veteran, obiously, imo.
He’s also a bad fit because QBs in Arians system take a ton of hits. If you look at his time with The Colts, Steelers and Arizona his QBs take an absolute beating. Big Ben basically had one complete season without getting injured in that system, Carson Palmer had injuries and Andrew Luck ended his career early because of the hits he took in that system.
Tua would be out of the league in two years if he was put into that position.
This post was edited on 12/10/19 at 2:10 pm
Posted on 12/10/19 at 2:13 pm to RolltidePA
I always got the feeling Tua didn't want to go to Miami under any circumstances.
Posted on 12/10/19 at 3:02 pm to SummerOfGeorge
What does the 2021 crop of QBs have?
Trevor Lawrence
Justin Fields
Certainly others that will develop next year, such as Burrow did in 19.
I think this should factor into his decision as well
Trevor Lawrence
Justin Fields
Certainly others that will develop next year, such as Burrow did in 19.
I think this should factor into his decision as well
Posted on 12/10/19 at 3:20 pm to phaz
Hell Arians will be lucky to keep his job.
2019 draft
15 slot Dawayne Haskins 14.4 million 8.5 signing bonus. That means he can be cut in year two and they owe him zip,none,nada,zero
After the top 10 it drops...really the top 5
LINK /
2019 draft
15 slot Dawayne Haskins 14.4 million 8.5 signing bonus. That means he can be cut in year two and they owe him zip,none,nada,zero
After the top 10 it drops...really the top 5
LINK /
This post was edited on 12/10/19 at 3:26 pm
Posted on 12/10/19 at 3:35 pm to East Coast Band
quote:
What does the 2021 crop of QBs have?
Possible Juniors who stay this year
Jacob Eason (Washington)
Kellen Mond (Texas A&M)
Jake Fromm (Georgia)
Jordan Love (Utah St, says he might grad transfer for SR year)
Brady White (Memphis)
Charlie Brewer (Baylor)
Sam Ehlinger (Texas)
Jamioe Newman (Wake Forest)
Sophomores
Trevor Lawrence (Clemson)
Justin Fields (Ohio St)
Tanner Morgan (Minnesota)
Brock Purdy (Iowa St)
Dorian Thompson-Robinson (UCLA)
If he came back and had a great year I think he's at worst #3, probably #2.
This post was edited on 12/10/19 at 3:38 pm
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