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SOG Predictive Model - #1 Alabama vs #4 Oklahoma (Orange Bowl)
Posted on 12/3/18 at 9:13 pm
Posted on 12/3/18 at 9:13 pm
#1 Alabama (13-0) vs #4 Oklahoma (12-1)
Dec 29, 7:00 PM CST, ESPN
Vegas Stats
Alabama : -14
O/U : 79.5
Expected Vegas Score per Odds : Alabama 47-33
Prediction (normal plays)
Alabama - 47.8
Oklahoma - 36.3
Margin - Alabama +11.5
Alabama
Total Offense : 581 yards on 8.19 YPP (71 plays)
12.17 Yards Per Point
Oklahoma
Total Offense : 552 yards on 8.24 YPP (67 plays)
15.20 Yards Per Point
Prediction (20 extra plays, OU +10 plays)
Alabama - 49.8
Oklahoma - 45.5
Margin - Alabama +4.3
Alabama
Total Offense : 606 yards on 8.19 YPP (74 plays)
12.17 Yards Per Point
Oklahoma
Total Offense : 692 yards on 8.24 YPP (84 plays)
15.20 Yards Per Point
Prediction (20 extra plays, Bama +10 plays)
Alabama - 56.5
Oklahoma - 40.1
Margin - Alabama +16.4
Alabama
Total Offense : 688 yards on 8.19 YPP (84 plays)
12.17 Yards Per Point
Oklahoma
Total Offense : 610 yards on 8.24 YPP (74 plays)
15.20 Yards Per Point
Dec 29, 7:00 PM CST, ESPN
Vegas Stats
Alabama : -14
O/U : 79.5
Expected Vegas Score per Odds : Alabama 47-33
Prediction (normal plays)
Alabama - 47.8
Oklahoma - 36.3
Margin - Alabama +11.5
Alabama
Total Offense : 581 yards on 8.19 YPP (71 plays)
12.17 Yards Per Point
Oklahoma
Total Offense : 552 yards on 8.24 YPP (67 plays)
15.20 Yards Per Point
Prediction (20 extra plays, OU +10 plays)
Alabama - 49.8
Oklahoma - 45.5
Margin - Alabama +4.3
Alabama
Total Offense : 606 yards on 8.19 YPP (74 plays)
12.17 Yards Per Point
Oklahoma
Total Offense : 692 yards on 8.24 YPP (84 plays)
15.20 Yards Per Point
Prediction (20 extra plays, Bama +10 plays)
Alabama - 56.5
Oklahoma - 40.1
Margin - Alabama +16.4
Alabama
Total Offense : 688 yards on 8.19 YPP (84 plays)
12.17 Yards Per Point
Oklahoma
Total Offense : 610 yards on 8.24 YPP (74 plays)
15.20 Yards Per Point
This post was edited on 12/3/18 at 9:14 pm
9
Posted on 12/3/18 at 9:15 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Can you do the worst case and plug in Jalen... in case Tua can't go?
Posted on 12/3/18 at 9:15 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Yea, this won't be comfortable. Gonna be a lot of points and a lot of yards.
- Alabama's Offense averages 131% of opponents yards per play
- Oklahoma's Offense averages 167% of opponents yards per play
- Alabama's Defense averages giving up 79% of opponents yards per play
- Oklahoma's Defense averages giving up 114% of opponents yards per play
- Alabama's Offense averages 131% of opponents yards per play
- Oklahoma's Offense averages 167% of opponents yards per play
- Alabama's Defense averages giving up 79% of opponents yards per play
- Oklahoma's Defense averages giving up 114% of opponents yards per play
Posted on 12/3/18 at 9:16 pm to Panthers4life
quote:
Can you do the worst case and plug in Jalen... in case Tua can't go?
Not really because we don't know what that looks like statistically. I mean, for what we have, it doesn't look any different than Tua.
Posted on 12/3/18 at 9:22 pm to SummerOfGeorge
I feel like this is one of those games you expect high scoring and it ends up 21-24.
Posted on 12/3/18 at 9:22 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Using the last 5 power-5 games
Prediction (normal plays)
Alabama - 49.5
Oklahoma - 29.7
Margin - Alabama +19.8
Alabama
Total Offense : 609 yards on 8.58 YPP (71 plays)
12.31 Yards Per Point
Oklahoma
Total Offense : 473 yards on 7.06 YPP (67 plays)
15.92 Yards Per Point
Using the last 4 power-5 games
Prediction (normal plays)
Alabama - 46.8
Oklahoma - 26.6
Margin - Alabama +20.2
Alabama
Total Offense : 615 yards on 8.66 YPP (71 plays)
13.15 Yards Per Point
Oklahoma
Total Offense : 462 yards on 6.89 YPP (67 plays)
17.32 Yards Per Point
Prediction (normal plays)
Alabama - 49.5
Oklahoma - 29.7
Margin - Alabama +19.8
Alabama
Total Offense : 609 yards on 8.58 YPP (71 plays)
12.31 Yards Per Point
Oklahoma
Total Offense : 473 yards on 7.06 YPP (67 plays)
15.92 Yards Per Point
Using the last 4 power-5 games
Prediction (normal plays)
Alabama - 46.8
Oklahoma - 26.6
Margin - Alabama +20.2
Alabama
Total Offense : 615 yards on 8.66 YPP (71 plays)
13.15 Yards Per Point
Oklahoma
Total Offense : 462 yards on 6.89 YPP (67 plays)
17.32 Yards Per Point
This post was edited on 12/3/18 at 9:33 pm
Posted on 12/3/18 at 9:24 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Thanks for your service, this year.
Posted on 12/3/18 at 9:25 pm to UASports23
quote:
Thanks for your service, this year.
Posted on 12/3/18 at 9:27 pm to SummerOfGeorge
What did the model say for 2014?
Posted on 12/3/18 at 9:28 pm to RollTide4Ever
quote:
What did the model say for 2014?
Ohio State or 2013 Oklahoma?
My guess is it would have given Ohio State a helluva lot better odds than most folks were, especially if we just looked at the previous 6 games or so.
This post was edited on 12/3/18 at 9:30 pm
Posted on 12/3/18 at 9:34 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Okie
Posted on 12/3/18 at 9:34 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Oklahoma's defense over the last 4 games is giving up 128% of their opponents average in YPP
- Okie St averages 5.96 YPP. They got 7.44 vs OU
- Kansas averages 5.04 YPP. They got 8.19 vs OU
- WVU averages 6.97 YPP. They got 7.82 vs OU
- Texas averages 5.32 YPP. They got 6.33 vs OU.
- Okie St averages 5.96 YPP. They got 7.44 vs OU
- Kansas averages 5.04 YPP. They got 8.19 vs OU
- WVU averages 6.97 YPP. They got 7.82 vs OU
- Texas averages 5.32 YPP. They got 6.33 vs OU.
Posted on 12/3/18 at 9:35 pm to RollTide4Ever
quote:
Okie
I'm sure it'd say we would win by a bunch. I don't really think the only football game of the last 8 years played by an Alabama team in which our players had no chance to win a national title really matters much, though. Nor does it have any relevance.
Posted on 12/3/18 at 9:43 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Not really because we don't know what that looks like statistically. I mean, for what we have, it doesn't look any different than Tua.
While not apples to apples for a variety of personnel, coaching, and developmental reasons, maybe use last year's Bama offensive stats. I assume that would basically be worst case for Jalen and assume no progression.
Might be interesting though.
Honestly, I was concerned about playing OU in the playoffs last year. This year will be a tough out as well, but feels much better thinking through the matchups
Posted on 12/3/18 at 9:44 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Is that the same excuse for OSU loss the following year?
I'm still not over AJ throwing a gazillion interceptions in that game.
I'm still not over AJ throwing a gazillion interceptions in that game.
This post was edited on 12/3/18 at 9:45 pm
Posted on 12/3/18 at 9:45 pm to SummerOfGeorge
‘Sees scoring average’ No. No. no. no. nooooo.
Posted on 12/3/18 at 9:46 pm to SummerOfGeorge
I like this round of numbers better than that first batch!! Thanks SOG for putting these together.
Posted on 12/3/18 at 9:52 pm to SummerOfGeorge
I'm feeling a lot better about this matchup assuming Tua will be good to go. We'll find a way to get enough stops. I'm not worried about that. Looking at the stats, I really don't know if they can stop us from scoring 50 and dominating the play count.
Posted on 12/3/18 at 9:54 pm to RollTide4Ever
quote:
Is that the same excuse for OSU loss the following year?
Have you looked back at the rosters for the 2 teams in those games?
Here is are some of our defensive starters (who I love, but still)
FS - Nick Perry
WLB - Denzel Devall
ILB - Trey DePriest
SLB - Xzavier Dickson
CB - Eddie Jackson (on 1 leg)
DE - DJ Pettway
Ohio State was fvckin loaded and we had way overachieved that year.
This post was edited on 12/3/18 at 9:58 pm
Posted on 12/3/18 at 9:58 pm to FairhopeTider
quote:
I'm feeling a lot better about this matchup assuming Tua will be good to go. We'll find a way to get enough stops. I'm not worried about that. Looking at the stats, I really don't know if they can stop us from scoring 50 and dominating the play count.
This game has a very 2013 Alabama-Texas A&M feel to it IMHO
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