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SOG Prediction Model - #2 Alabama vs #3 Georgia (10/17/20)
Posted on 10/11/20 at 1:56 pm
Posted on 10/11/20 at 1:56 pm
We've got 3 solid weeks of SEC vs SEC games to work with, so might as well try the model again.
Georgia Stats
Offensive Yards Per Play: 5.27 (97% of opponents avg)
Offensive Yards Per Point: 13.63
Defensive Yards Per Play: 3.70 (65% of opponents avg)
Defensive Yards Per Point: 19.19
Alabama Stats
Offensive Yards Per Play: 8.66 (130% of opponents avg)
Offensive Yards Per Point: 10.99
Defensive Yards Per Play: 6.01 (83% of opponents avg)
Defensive Yards Per Point: 15.59
Score Prediction
Georgia - 29
Alabama - 26
Georgia: 395 yards on 79 plays (4.94 YPP)
Alabama: 399 yards on 65 plays (6.14 YPP)
The difference in the game - Georgia runs more plays than Alabama because of Alabama's inability to get off the field on 3rd down, basically.
Georgia Stats
Offensive Yards Per Play: 5.27 (97% of opponents avg)
Offensive Yards Per Point: 13.63
Defensive Yards Per Play: 3.70 (65% of opponents avg)
Defensive Yards Per Point: 19.19
Alabama Stats
Offensive Yards Per Play: 8.66 (130% of opponents avg)
Offensive Yards Per Point: 10.99
Defensive Yards Per Play: 6.01 (83% of opponents avg)
Defensive Yards Per Point: 15.59
Score Prediction
Georgia - 29
Alabama - 26
Georgia: 395 yards on 79 plays (4.94 YPP)
Alabama: 399 yards on 65 plays (6.14 YPP)
The difference in the game - Georgia runs more plays than Alabama because of Alabama's inability to get off the field on 3rd down, basically.
This post was edited on 10/11/20 at 7:44 pm
Posted on 10/11/20 at 1:59 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Sounds about right. frick
Posted on 10/11/20 at 2:02 pm to SummerOfGeorge
I would be thrilled if they score less than 30
Posted on 10/11/20 at 2:02 pm to SummerOfGeorge
I can see that. I was really optimistic about this game until last night. Now I think UGA just eats us up on the ground and keeps our offense on the sideline.
Alabama O vs UGA D = Even matchup or maybe slight advantage for Alabama
Alabama D vs UGA O = Advantage UGA
No homefield advantage either.
Alabama O vs UGA D = Even matchup or maybe slight advantage for Alabama
Alabama D vs UGA O = Advantage UGA
No homefield advantage either.
Posted on 10/11/20 at 2:09 pm to SummerOfGeorge
UGA's opponents: @ AR, vs AU, vs UT
UGA hasn't faced any good offenses.
UA's opponents: @ MO, vs A&M, @ OM
UA has faced 2 good offenses.
UGA hasn't faced any good offenses.
UA's opponents: @ MO, vs A&M, @ OM
UA has faced 2 good offenses.
This post was edited on 10/11/20 at 2:14 pm
Posted on 10/11/20 at 2:12 pm to TidalSurge1
This is based on how you performed vs a team compared to how other teams performed against them. So it kind of weeds that out, thus the "% of opponents average".
On the flip side, Georgia has played 1 pretty good defense, 1 decent defense (and a 3rd that has played ok, if not inspired, ball). We've played 1 decent defense and 2 terrible ones.
On the flip side, Georgia has played 1 pretty good defense, 1 decent defense (and a 3rd that has played ok, if not inspired, ball). We've played 1 decent defense and 2 terrible ones.
This post was edited on 10/11/20 at 2:15 pm
Posted on 10/11/20 at 2:15 pm to SummerOfGeorge
I think that we'll have a lot of success on offense per usual, but after last night, how many points will be enough? I can already picture in my head Stetson Bennett looking like Steve Young against us.
Posted on 10/11/20 at 2:16 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Our offense is gonna have to be perfect. Will have to capitalize on every chance they get and it still might be enough thanks to the defense.
Posted on 10/11/20 at 2:16 pm to SummerOfGeorge
UGA's & UA's opponents have only faced two other teams. I like your model a lot, but this early in the season it's ability to project well is limited by a pretty small sample size of opponents, none common between UGA & UA.
This post was edited on 10/11/20 at 2:30 pm
Posted on 10/11/20 at 2:17 pm to TidalSurge1
quote:
UGA's & UA's opponents have only faced two other teams.
Correct, which is why this is the first time I've done this. It's the first week you can even really think about using stats to start judging teams, IMHO, and even then it's early.
Posted on 10/11/20 at 2:18 pm to SummerOfGeorge
I won't believe we beat saban until we actually do it.
Its also worth noting that this game is essentially meaningless for bama since we have to play you again. With the west being such garbage you guys have basically already won the division after only 3 weeks.
Its also worth noting that this game is essentially meaningless for bama since we have to play you again. With the west being such garbage you guys have basically already won the division after only 3 weeks.
Posted on 10/11/20 at 2:20 pm to WG_Dawg
quote:
Its also worth noting that this game is essentially meaningless for bama since we have to play you again. With the west being such garbage you guys have basically already won the division after only 3 weeks.
I mean, it's kind of meaningless for both of us (in terms of SEC Championship stuff). Who is going to challenge Georgia in the East, Florida? The team that just lost to Aggie who we beat like a rented mule?
Things can change, but even with all our issues, we're still pretty clearly the #1 team in the West, and you guys clearly #1 in the East.
Posted on 10/11/20 at 2:21 pm to SummerOfGeorge
For the record, based on the posts on this board, I think you guys give too much credit to our OL. They’ve only had one good game so far this year.
I’m not so sure how effectively we can run between the tackles against you guys. I hope we try to stretch the field a bit more, trying to get our playmakers on the edge.
I think the main thing Georgia needs to do is to stop the home run throws from Mac Jones. Our defense was lights out for all but two drives yesterday when Tennessee had two long TDs. Georgia isn’t built for a shootout, so they have to make them earn it.
I’m not so sure how effectively we can run between the tackles against you guys. I hope we try to stretch the field a bit more, trying to get our playmakers on the edge.
I think the main thing Georgia needs to do is to stop the home run throws from Mac Jones. Our defense was lights out for all but two drives yesterday when Tennessee had two long TDs. Georgia isn’t built for a shootout, so they have to make them earn it.
Posted on 10/11/20 at 2:22 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Think we win 35-31.
We will have a better game on defense. Better not great.
Should be highly motivated too.
We will have a better game on defense. Better not great.
Should be highly motivated too.
Posted on 10/11/20 at 2:22 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Who is going to challenge Georgia in the East, Florida?
I still think UF could beat us FTR.
Posted on 10/11/20 at 2:23 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Score Prediction
Georgia - 29
Alabama - 26
Posted on 10/11/20 at 2:23 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Who is going to challenge Georgia in the East, Florid
Yeah? I mean I expect us to beat them but it wouldn't be unheard of if not. And I know coley is gone (thank the Lord) but after last year's sc game we always have to be leery of a wtf head scratcher.
Posted on 10/11/20 at 2:23 pm to WG_Dawg
It will be a close game in my opinion. I’m not sure who will win. If UGA gasses our Def and starts running at will we could lose TOP. I feel good about our Offense but know UGA will make us punt at times.
Posted on 10/11/20 at 2:24 pm to WG_Dawg
quote:
Yeah? I mean I expect us to beat them but it wouldn't be unheard of if not. And I know coley is gone (thank the Lord) but after last year's sc game we always have to be leery of a wtf head scratcher.
I mean we have a few of those too - traveling to Knoxville after this game is going to be a war, and we could absolutely show up in Baton Rouge and give up 45 pts.
But at this point, you guys are pretty clearly the best, most well-rounded team in the East. And we are.......well we're the best, not rounded at all but so good at one thing team in the West.
Posted on 10/11/20 at 2:24 pm to WG_Dawg
Also, I think it is exponentially more likely for bama to beat us twice than for us to beat you twice. If we win Saturday, it'll *almost* be disappointing bc I would say there's little chance to repeat that feat 2 months later
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