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SECCG SOG Prediction Models - #1 Georgia vs #3 Alabama
Posted on 11/30/21 at 8:14 pm
Posted on 11/30/21 at 8:14 pm
Because Alabama has been such an up and down roller coaster - both in general and even more specifically on each side of the ball on a game to game basis - I decided to run a few different models. Alabama isn't really a "take the average of their performances" team this year, which is weird to say, because they're generally either really good or really bad (this applies to both offense and defense). So, you could get a great performance or a bad performance. This attempts to show what those could maybe look like.
- Normal Average - the normal technique in which each teams averages for the season vs P5 opponents compared to those opponents averages then averaged with the same formula for the other teams averages of average multiplied by a Yard Per Point number
- Worst Bama- This uses our 5 worst offensive games (Florida, Ole Miss, Tennessee, LSU, Auburn) and our 5 worst defensive games (Florida, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Tennessee, Arkansas).
- Bad Bama - This only uses our offensive and defensive stats (and the technique above) from what I decided were our 5 worst complete game performances : Florida, Texas A&M, Tennessee, LSU, Auburn.
- Good Bama - This only uses our offensive and defensive stats (and the technique above) from what I decided were our 5 best complete game performances : Miami, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Arkansas. (yes Tennessee is in both - I wanted 5 each to have a decent sample and we only had 9 P5 teams so the median game goes in both)
- Best Bama - This uses our 5 best offensive games (Miami, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Arkansas) and our 5 best defensive games (Miami, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, LSU, Auburn).
- Normal Average - the normal technique in which each teams averages for the season vs P5 opponents compared to those opponents averages then averaged with the same formula for the other teams averages of average multiplied by a Yard Per Point number
- Worst Bama- This uses our 5 worst offensive games (Florida, Ole Miss, Tennessee, LSU, Auburn) and our 5 worst defensive games (Florida, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Tennessee, Arkansas).
- Bad Bama - This only uses our offensive and defensive stats (and the technique above) from what I decided were our 5 worst complete game performances : Florida, Texas A&M, Tennessee, LSU, Auburn.
- Good Bama - This only uses our offensive and defensive stats (and the technique above) from what I decided were our 5 best complete game performances : Miami, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Arkansas. (yes Tennessee is in both - I wanted 5 each to have a decent sample and we only had 9 P5 teams so the median game goes in both)
- Best Bama - This uses our 5 best offensive games (Miami, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Arkansas) and our 5 best defensive games (Miami, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, LSU, Auburn).
This post was edited on 11/30/21 at 8:50 pm
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Posted on 11/30/21 at 8:15 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Stop giving me even this tiny ray of hope!
Posted on 11/30/21 at 8:17 pm to alabamabuckeye
If I had to put odds on these 4 and which happens I'd probably go
Average : 35%
Bad : 25%
Good : 25%
Best : 10%
Worst : 5%
Extrapolate those odds out and that puts my "guess" at the final score being Georgia 28 - Alabama 21, which is basically exactly what Vegas currently says
Average : 35%
Bad : 25%
Good : 25%
Best : 10%
Worst : 5%
Extrapolate those odds out and that puts my "guess" at the final score being Georgia 28 - Alabama 21, which is basically exactly what Vegas currently says
This post was edited on 11/30/21 at 8:45 pm
Posted on 11/30/21 at 8:22 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Are all the Georgias the "same" Georgia?
Not that they varied much throughout the season.
Not that they varied much throughout the season.
Posted on 11/30/21 at 8:24 pm to East Coast Band
quote:
Are all the Georgias the "same" Georgia?
Yes
quote:
Not that they varied much throughout the season.
And that's why. Their variance from best to worst game was pretty slim. And since the average compared to what opponents averages are is used, it's opponent adjusted, therefore who you played is really irrelevant (in theory).
This post was edited on 11/30/21 at 8:25 pm
Posted on 11/30/21 at 8:31 pm to SummerOfGeorge
That's why we get upset... We don't know which bama team is going to show up. Saban got mad at the fans for pointing that out... It's not like teams under Saban to be this unpredictable.
Posted on 11/30/21 at 8:41 pm to SummerOfGeorge
If Awbarn and LSU can take us to the brink and A&M can beat us; then ??, why can’t we beat the mutts?
IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE!!
I go with the possible. Roll Tide.
IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE!!
I go with the possible. Roll Tide.
This post was edited on 11/30/21 at 8:43 pm
Posted on 11/30/21 at 8:42 pm to bogeypro
If we score more than 17 in the first half, I will be a believer.
Posted on 11/30/21 at 8:52 pm to Bamafan24
quote:
If we score more than 17 in the first half, I will be a believer.
Its entirely believable
Posted on 11/30/21 at 8:53 pm to Bamafan24
What does the model show if there is a comically over-sized jumbotron showing the kicker's face back to himself?
In all seriousness - great work - appreciate the effort that goes into this analysis.
In all seriousness - great work - appreciate the effort that goes into this analysis.
Posted on 11/30/21 at 8:56 pm to BeltwayTide
quote:
What does the model show if there is a comically over-sized jumbotron showing the kicker's face back to himself?
Posted on 11/30/21 at 8:57 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Posted on 11/30/21 at 9:05 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Awesome let’s all become nervous wrecks together. Although the Iron Bowl had my BP through the roof.
Edit: even best Bama is a really close game.
Edit: even best Bama is a really close game.
This post was edited on 11/30/21 at 9:06 pm
Posted on 11/30/21 at 9:10 pm to CrimsonBoz
I just have a really hard time believing best Bama only scores 28.
Posted on 11/30/21 at 9:12 pm to RollTide33
Theoretically you could make Alabama's point per yard better at their best but it'd be so far outside anything Georgia has allowed to this point it'd be kind of crazy.
Posted on 11/30/21 at 9:13 pm to RollTide33
Paperwasp posted this on the Rant earlier:
Posted on 11/30/21 at 9:18 pm to TideSaint
Yea, I've followed those all year and I don't really get how they get to their point figures.
Posted on 11/30/21 at 9:21 pm to TideSaint
I think we are in for a hell of a game personally.
Posted on 11/30/21 at 9:22 pm to SummerOfGeorge
My biggest takeaways are
- There is room for us to throw the ball. Georgia's pass defense is allowing like 75% of opponents averages, they've just barely played anyone who is a competent passing team. Arkansas and Tennessee are basically it, maybe Kentucky. The rest are just terrible, really. Clemson, South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Missouri, Georgia Tech, Florida are all at best average and mostly very bad passing teams. So their pass defense numbers are certainly a bit inflated.
There has been a lot of "their schedule" talk, but the one that is by far the most factual is passing offenses played. The only one they have played that is competent and doesn't heavily require a run game is Tennessee......and Tennessee threw for 330 yards and 6.9 YPA. And their outside WR got hurt early in the game.
- I feel pretty good about us against their run game. We've been excellent against every run game we've faced other than the weird Florida game which was heavily QB read option oriented with a new OLB and stuff we hadn't seen.
The biggest variables to me are can we find any semblance of a run game and can we consistently defend a quick passing game to backs and tight ends in a disciplined way. Monken will try and get us into as many switches as possible and Cook and Bowers are good enough to take a mistake on those and go to the house. If we have a fvck around and mentally breakdown in the secondary/LB coverage game we're going to have problems.
- There is room for us to throw the ball. Georgia's pass defense is allowing like 75% of opponents averages, they've just barely played anyone who is a competent passing team. Arkansas and Tennessee are basically it, maybe Kentucky. The rest are just terrible, really. Clemson, South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Missouri, Georgia Tech, Florida are all at best average and mostly very bad passing teams. So their pass defense numbers are certainly a bit inflated.
There has been a lot of "their schedule" talk, but the one that is by far the most factual is passing offenses played. The only one they have played that is competent and doesn't heavily require a run game is Tennessee......and Tennessee threw for 330 yards and 6.9 YPA. And their outside WR got hurt early in the game.
- I feel pretty good about us against their run game. We've been excellent against every run game we've faced other than the weird Florida game which was heavily QB read option oriented with a new OLB and stuff we hadn't seen.
The biggest variables to me are can we find any semblance of a run game and can we consistently defend a quick passing game to backs and tight ends in a disciplined way. Monken will try and get us into as many switches as possible and Cook and Bowers are good enough to take a mistake on those and go to the house. If we have a fvck around and mentally breakdown in the secondary/LB coverage game we're going to have problems.
This post was edited on 11/30/21 at 9:28 pm
Posted on 11/30/21 at 9:23 pm to CrimsonBoz
Agreed. Third down on both sides of the ball are going to be anxiety inducing.
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