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Ran the ole SOG Prediction model for LSU-Bama based on results so far

Posted on 10/13/19 at 5:25 pm
Posted by SummerOfGeorge
Member since Jul 2013
102699 posts
Posted on 10/13/19 at 5:25 pm
And.........sheesh!

Alabama : 42
LSU : 39

Alabama
8.02 YPA
554 yards on 69 plays

LSU
8.22 YPA
567 yards on 69 plays


- Alabama averages 151% of opponents YPA averages
- Alabama gives up 99% of opponents YPA averages

- LSU averages 139% of opponents YPA averages
- LSU gives up 103% of opponents YPA averages
This post was edited on 10/13/19 at 5:29 pm
Posted by CrimsonBoz
Member since Sep 2014
16973 posts
Posted on 10/13/19 at 5:40 pm to
Well that’s close lol
Posted by Syd
Member since Sep 2012
2960 posts
Posted on 10/13/19 at 5:44 pm to
Game of the Century 2019 version
Posted by Glorious
Mobile
Member since Aug 2014
24434 posts
Posted on 10/13/19 at 5:59 pm to
quote:

Alabama : 42 LSU : 39



This post was edited on 10/13/19 at 6:00 pm
Posted by Terrific Tales
Member since Jan 2019
19425 posts
Posted on 10/13/19 at 6:29 pm to
quote:

139%

Dang we’re still this high?

Oof

I will say I think once UF gets more games with Trask their average will go up.
Posted by phil4bama
Emerald Coast of PCB
Member since Jul 2011
11454 posts
Posted on 10/13/19 at 7:44 pm to
I'd take that result right now! Saban will clamp down on Sark and the offense early as he always does in big games and we'll be playing from behind before you know it. I expect 3 runs up the middle and punt on our first series. Hope and pray Reichard is punting it and not DeSHank.
Posted by HempHead
Big Sky Country
Member since Mar 2011
55438 posts
Posted on 10/13/19 at 10:34 pm to
Sounds like a good November for cardiologists in Alabama and Louisiana.
Posted by Terrific Tales
Member since Jan 2019
19425 posts
Posted on 10/13/19 at 11:13 pm to
I don’t think it will be safe for me to be around people when that game is played.
Posted by llfshoals
Member since Nov 2010
15340 posts
Posted on 10/14/19 at 12:12 am to
Hoping for a good game with no injuries.

And Bama wins of course
Posted by Kcstills17
Member since Nov 2017
10066 posts
Posted on 10/14/19 at 5:57 am to
I really don’t think that game is gonna play out as much of a shootout as folks think. Defenses are gonna be pumped and ready to go. And I think most points will probably come later in the game when they’re getting tired.
Posted by tide06
Member since Oct 2011
11135 posts
Posted on 10/14/19 at 6:39 am to
Neither defense is talented enough to shutdown the other teams offense if healthy due to matchups and inability to impact the passer without blitzing IMO.

IF Bama can stop the big plays in the run game that might be enough, but it’s a huge IF given 5 TF starting on D.
Posted by East Coast Band
Member since Nov 2010
62717 posts
Posted on 10/14/19 at 6:49 am to
quote:

Alabama : 42

Does this mean 6 TDs AND 6 XPs?
I don't buy it
Posted by bamameister
Right here, right now
Member since May 2016
13907 posts
Posted on 10/14/19 at 7:42 am to
The home-field mattered, a lot, Saturday night.

It will matter, a lot, in Tuscaloosa.

It will be the first time that the Cajuns take their new offensive philosophy on the road against equal or better talent. And Bama gets 2 weeks to scheme against those purple convictions. I'm already there.
Posted by John Milner
Member since Jan 2015
6457 posts
Posted on 10/14/19 at 7:49 am to
quote:

I expect 3 runs up the middle and punt on our first series.


I bet not
Posted by elposter
Member since Dec 2010
24849 posts
Posted on 10/14/19 at 8:57 am to
quote:

- Alabama gives up 99% of opponents YPA averages






quote:

- LSU gives up 103% of opponents YPA averages



Posted by Che Boludo
Member since May 2009
18157 posts
Posted on 10/14/19 at 11:29 am to
Gonna be a heck of a ball game
Posted by Funky Tide 8
Tittleman's Crest
Member since Feb 2009
52628 posts
Posted on 10/14/19 at 11:49 am to
I bet we come out and beat their arse again. Idk why, just have that feeling.
This post was edited on 10/14/19 at 12:09 pm
Posted by TizzyT4theUofA
This side of eternity
Member since Jun 2016
10033 posts
Posted on 10/14/19 at 12:03 pm to
quote:

Does this mean 6 TDs AND 6 XPs? I don't buy it


Depends on who the kicker is, but given the current state of our kicking game I’ll say 41-39.
Posted by Eli Goldfinger
Member since Sep 2016
32785 posts
Posted on 10/14/19 at 12:19 pm to
quote:

Alabama gives up 99% of opponents YPA averages


Gag
Posted by JB Bama
Tuscaloosa, AL
Member since Sep 2008
2669 posts
Posted on 10/14/19 at 1:01 pm to
I don't think our defense has had to play their hand yet either.

We've had every game under control and there's been no reason to be aggressive.

I expect break downs and certainly not a shutout but I definitely think our Defense out performs expectations against LSU.
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