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Prediction Model : SECCG #1 LSU (-7) vs #4 Georgia
Posted on 12/5/19 at 9:01 am
Posted on 12/5/19 at 9:01 am
The model is based on YPP averages as a % of opponents averages. So, basically, you gained 4.0 YPA rushing vs Team A. Team A gives up 3.5 YPA to P5 teams excluding you. You averaged 114% of your opponents average. Then moves down the line. I did one earlier that was just total YPP, but this one broke it out into Rush/Pass, so its a little more specific in comparing matchups (run d vs run o, pass d vs pass o).
#1 LSU (-7) VS #4 GEORGIA (O/U 54.5)
LSU : 30
GEORGIA : 24
LSU Stats
- 37 rushes, 124 yards, 3.35 YPA
- 35 passes, 322 yards, 9.19 YPA
- 72 plays, 446 yards, 6.19 YPP
Georgia Stats
- 37 rushes, 151 yards, 4.09 YPA
- 28 passes, 195 yards, 6.97 YPA
- 65 plays, 347 yards, 5.33 YPP
The LSU offense, with best and worst game removed, averages 113% of opponents rush YPA allowed and 153% of opponents pass YPA allowed. The LSU defense, with best and worst game removed, allows 86% of opponents rush YPA and 100% of opponents pass YPA.
The Georgia offense, with best and worst game removed, averages 114% of opponents rush YPA allowed and 95% of opponents pass YPA allowed. The Georgia defense, with best and worst game removed, allows 65% of opponents rush YPA and 80% of opponents pass YPA.
#1 LSU (-7) VS #4 GEORGIA (O/U 54.5)
LSU : 30
GEORGIA : 24
LSU Stats
- 37 rushes, 124 yards, 3.35 YPA
- 35 passes, 322 yards, 9.19 YPA
- 72 plays, 446 yards, 6.19 YPP
Georgia Stats
- 37 rushes, 151 yards, 4.09 YPA
- 28 passes, 195 yards, 6.97 YPA
- 65 plays, 347 yards, 5.33 YPP
The LSU offense, with best and worst game removed, averages 113% of opponents rush YPA allowed and 153% of opponents pass YPA allowed. The LSU defense, with best and worst game removed, allows 86% of opponents rush YPA and 100% of opponents pass YPA.
The Georgia offense, with best and worst game removed, averages 114% of opponents rush YPA allowed and 95% of opponents pass YPA allowed. The Georgia defense, with best and worst game removed, allows 65% of opponents rush YPA and 80% of opponents pass YPA.
8
Posted on 12/5/19 at 9:04 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
LSU : 30
GEORGIA : 24
I took LSU -7 so you can probably take this score to the bank
Posted on 12/5/19 at 9:04 am to Riseupfromtherubble
quote:
I took LSU -7 so you can probably take this score to the bank
Posted on 12/5/19 at 9:07 am to SummerOfGeorge
I see Georgia's defense contain LSU's offense.
UGA 30
LSU 21
UGA 30
LSU 21
Posted on 12/5/19 at 9:18 am to biggsc
I actually like that score but think it's the other way around. I think it'll look a little like the 2008 SECCG. Georgia will trade punches with them, they'll trade possessions where neither team can move the ball, and eventually the dam just breaks in the second half.
Posted on 12/5/19 at 9:28 am to Riseupfromtherubble
Fromm will have to have the best passing game of his football life to pull this off. Given his record that wouldn't be that hard to surpass. But he'll have to put the ball in the air over 30 attempts and that normally doesn't spell success. Kirby will also have to keep from suffering a major brain cramp when the heat is on.
I do see a flawed LSU team, but I can't think of one time or one game where you could say the dawgs were explosive. This is a lesser offense than the last 2 seasons. If Fromm makes up the difference it will be the first time.
I do see a flawed LSU team, but I can't think of one time or one game where you could say the dawgs were explosive. This is a lesser offense than the last 2 seasons. If Fromm makes up the difference it will be the first time.
Posted on 12/5/19 at 9:39 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
SummerOfGeorge
Posted on 12/5/19 at 10:05 am to SummerOfGeorge
Was looking forward to. Seeing this, thanks SoG!
Posted on 12/5/19 at 12:59 pm to bamameister
One thing that would make me nervous as an LSU fan is that Joe hasn't had one of "those games" yet this year. Every QB has them. Can the rest of the team pick up the load?
If both teams play to chalk LSU covers in a walk. But if Kirby can refuse to be tempted to trade scores, and instead pull the Tigers into the phone booth and hammer away with that big offensive line, they've got a puncher's chance.
If both teams play to chalk LSU covers in a walk. But if Kirby can refuse to be tempted to trade scores, and instead pull the Tigers into the phone booth and hammer away with that big offensive line, they've got a puncher's chance.
Posted on 12/5/19 at 1:12 pm to SoFla Tideroller
I don't think there's any way UGA can keep it that close with CEH running the ball AND Burrow to Chase/Jefferson to account for. Pick your poison. I hope I'm wrong and wouldn't mind the upset but I think LSU runs away with it. Traditionally, the SECCG usually isn't close.
Posted on 12/5/19 at 1:13 pm to phil4bama
quote:
I don't think there's any way UGA can keep it that close with CEH running the ball AND Burrow to Chase/Jefferson to account for. Pick your poison. I hope I'm wrong and wouldn't mind the upset but I think LSU runs away with it. Traditionally, the SECCG usually isn't close.
Put Moss in there too
Posted on 12/5/19 at 1:16 pm to bamameister
quote:
Fromm will have to have the best passing game of his football life to pull this off. Given his record that wouldn't be that hard to surpass. But he'll have to put the ball in the air over 30 attempts and that normally doesn't spell success. Kirby will also have to keep from suffering a major brain cramp when the heat is on.
I do see a flawed LSU team, but I can't think of one time or one game where you could say the dawgs were explosive. This is a lesser offense than the last 2 seasons. If Fromm makes up the difference it will be the first time.
I disagree. I think this game is about UGA's OL and RBs if UGA will win. LSU's DL and LB corps are shallow. They don't have the bodies on defense if UGA establishes the run. Georgia's running game can slow the game down and keep LSU's offense off the field.
This post was edited on 12/5/19 at 1:20 pm
Posted on 12/5/19 at 1:19 pm to Shaft Williams
Honestly, if any defense in the SEC is built to stop LSU I think it's Georgia's defense. They are sound in all defensive areas. I also don't think CEH will be as successful against UGA because UGA's LBs are better/more experienced.
Posted on 12/5/19 at 1:21 pm to Shaft Williams
The last time LSU and UGA played the big criticism of Kirby was that he abandoned the run game too soon when he had consistent success running the ball. I believe UGA can again have success running the ball against LSU and if they do I don't think Kirby abandons the running game.
Posted on 12/5/19 at 1:25 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Since neither way really helps us... Give them hell Dawgs!!
Posted on 12/5/19 at 1:36 pm to SummerOfGeorge
If the same Jake Fromm that played us in Atlanta shows up Saturday against LSU then I like Georgia to win the SEC. Georgia has an elite defense capable of taking over a game even against the best offense in America. Kirby has straight shot down prolific offenses at Bama like the Bobby Petrino offenses that wrecked every other team they played.
Posted on 12/5/19 at 1:42 pm to Commander Data
quote:
If the same Jake Fromm that played us in Atlanta shows up Saturday against LSU
QBs only have great outings against Alabama.
You know that
Posted on 12/5/19 at 1:47 pm to East Coast Band
quote:
QBs only have great outings against Alabama.
You know that
I laughed because it really does seem that way but quarterbacks have had their way against LSU all year and Jake absolutely can put together an elite performance. Fromm is used to playing in games of this magnitude. Burrow isnt.
Posted on 12/5/19 at 2:47 pm to Commander Data
Y'all have convinced me, I like UGA to win 31-30 on a last second Blankenship FG.
Posted on 12/5/19 at 3:20 pm to RTRinTampa
Georgia's offense has to keep up,with LSUs or I think will be over.Cant plod along and score FGs or even TDs when the other is waltzing to the end zone.
Don't think Georgia will stop the enough to win.
Don't think Georgia will stop the enough to win.
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