Model Prediction: #16 Mississippi State vs #2 Alabama - 7:00 PM EST, ESPN (also AU vs UGA)

Last Week

PICK
Alabama 34
LSU 14

Alabama : 6.04 YPP
LSU : 4.99 YPP

ACTUAL
Alabama 24
LSU 10

Alabama : 4.98 YPP
LSU : 4.19 YPP




PICK
Auburn 39
Texas A&M 17

Auburn : 6.94 YPP
Texas A&M : 3.84 YPP

ACTUAL
Auburn 42
Texas A&M 27

Auburn : 6.28 YPP
Auburn : 5.12 YPP



PICK
Georgia : 29
South Carolina : 9

Georgia : 6.85 YPP
South Carolina : 2.53 YPP

ACTUAL
Georgia : 24
South Carolina : 10

Georgia : 5.84 YPP
South Carolina : 4.28 YPP

Weekly lookahead updates : Auburn & Georgia

Auburn vs Alabama

Alabama : 25
Auburn : 19

Alabama
374 total yards (71 plays)
207 rush yards (46 plays)
167 pass yards (25 plays)
5.27 YPP

Auburn
398 total yards (73 plays)
175 rush yards (48 plays)
223 pass yards (25 plays)
5.45 YPP



Georgia vs Alabama

Alabama : 24
Georgia : 20

Alabama
364 total yards (72 plays)
190 rush yards (47 plays)
174 pass yards (25 plays)
4.92 YPP

Georgia
420 total yards (69 plays)
235 rush yards (48 plays)
186 pass yards (21 plays)
5.76 YPP

quote:

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I mean I would definitely take the 6 point victory over Auburn and the 3 point victory over Georgia but these yards per play models aren't very reassuring.

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Against our 5 best defensive opponents (LSU, Tennessee, FSU, Vandy, Texas A&M) here are our offensive numbers vs their averages against P5 opponents (excluding us)

Alabama Rush YPC : 5.05
Opponent Average YPC : 5.02
Alabama : +0.03 YPC

Alabama Pass YPA : 7.06
Opponent Average YPA : 6.89
Alabama : +0.18 YPA


So, when you look at Auburn, allows 3.51 YPC vs Best 5 Offenses, and Georgia, allows 2.83 YPC vs Best 5 Offenses, it's not quite reassuring when you look and see we are basically playing to our opponents averages.

quote:

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With our injury situation, I'd take all of those and feel very good about them.

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Unfortunately these numbers are all including SDH, Mack and Fitz

quote:

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#2 Alabama : 29
#16 Mississippi State : 15

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I'll take it right now.

This weekend has the makings of a sloppy away game all over it.

For all the talk about playing AU & UGA, we need to survive Starkville first.

quote:

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It makes sense. Right now I think Auburn and Georgia are going be all out wars to win. I'm just hoping that the Bama offense has a next gear they can get to when they really need it. Thus far this season I can't remember a single offensive possession in a game where there has been a REAL need to score. It's pretty much just hope that Daboll, Hurts, and Co can turn it on when they need it. I think that question is simply unanswered because the situation has not come up yet.

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Yep. Agree. Honestly, we won't face a tougher 1-2 punch in a Semi/Championship than Auburn/Georgia will be (if we make it to the SECCG).

It's going to take 2 really, really good efforts to go 2-0 there. And it's going to take a solid effort in Starkville Saturday, too. It's all ahead of us, but it's not gonna be easy. Hope these guys are chomping at the bit for the challenge.

quote:

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Yep. Agree. Honestly, we won't face a tougher 1-2 punch in a Semi/Championship than Auburn/Georgia will be (if we make it to the SECCG).

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Name me a tougher 2 game stretch than that since Saban arrived not counting the playoffs? Add going to Miss State to that gauntlet and the air gets even thinner.

Fortunately, we've avoided a lot of stretches of games like that. We finally have our own version of "Amen Corner."

That's why I won't be too upset if we drop 1 (or 2) in the next month. We are the best team and program in the nation but that doesn't mean we're invincible.

One encouraging point: we also haven’t played our “blow your fricking doors off” game yet this year either. That one game we seem to have almost every year where we expect a tough nail biter and we just go out and stomp a mud hole in them. It would be a nice time to drag that out in Auburn

quote:

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George this is getting scary how close you are

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He was pretty on point on the UGA game. If Saban had punched that last one instead of taking a knee he would have been very close on the LSU game.

Let's hope not because those Bama/UGA and Bama/AU numbers don't give me the good feels.

It is crazy how our special teams and defense dictate field position which lets us score at high rates per yard and be able to hold teams to low points per yard.

Our last game is a great example. Lost yardage overall, ran less plays, never were truly in danger of losing the game. And we only had 1 field flip turnovers. Just an ability to score on drives we move the ball, make the other team go a LONG way to score and not give short fields via turnover.