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Honest, Realistic LSU fan perspective on the upcoming bout (LONG)
Posted on 10/22/18 at 7:09 pm
Posted on 10/22/18 at 7:09 pm
If you want an honest, realist opinion from an LSU fan, I'll give it my best here...
I expect Bama to win this game. I think it will be a tough, hard-fought game, but in the end this is probably the best Bama team I have seen, and that is definitely saying something.
Tua will be tested. This will be the best secondary y'all face all year. Greedy and Delpit are elite. Fulton has gotten better every week and is a really great DB. Battle is prone to missing tackles and has given up a couple of plays over the top but is generally at least in the right position to make plays. The untalked about guy that will have to show up (and has so far this year) is Kary Vincent. He will be responsible for TEs some, backs some, and slot some. He's an athlete and is pretty darn good in coverage.
The issue is that our pass rush has been pretty inconsistent to down right awful most of the time during the year. Even when we get pressure, we miss the QB more often than tackling him. Even elite DBs can't cover forever. I expect a few plays where Tua avoids the rush (or simply has all day) and makes some big plays. It will be even worse considering one of our best pass-rushing lbs since Chaisson went down will be forced into D White's role a lot in the first half due to the targeting penalty. I will also say that every team against us has missed on some TD throws that I don't expect Tua to miss on.
This team can be run on and that is the game plan I expect Bama to start with. Sure we made some adjustments in the Georgia game, but Smart/Chaney's abandoning the run had far more to do with us shutting down UGA than the adjustments we made. I know y'all haven't had to rely on your backs this year, but if my knowledge is correct, y'all still have some elite ball carriers. I think they will be the stars of your victory. Tua will still get some, but not quite the numbers y'all are used to. I expect bama to run for 200+, throw for around 200. 28-38 points.
On offense, the best thing I can say is that we have been inconsistent. Sometimes we can't get out of our own way, sometimes we look like we can't be stopped. It is very frustrating. We have two average SEC backs that are missing the explosive homerun capacity we have gotten used to at LSU. They are more in the Darrell Williams type mold. Good, hardnosed guys that will get run down even if they break a big one.
Joe is a gamer. I expect his best effort of the season in two weeks. His completion percentage doesn't belay his actual accuracy but he has been prone to a few WTF passes this year. His biggest attribute is his intellect. He sees the game and the field well. He's also fairly clutch (Florida game not with-standing). Our WRs will have to have their best game as well. We have some guys, but everyone on the team has been prone to drops in one game or another. Can't happen this week.
Much has been made of our oline. It has been a revolving door honestly and I can't believe they have held up as well as they have for the most part. I will say if Brumfield is back, this will be the first time since week one we have been truly healthy and can start the oline we had in week 1. (As an aside, I think this only helps LSUs offense for next year with the amount of experience these young guys are gaining this year). We keep the TEs and RBs in to protect a good bit of the time. I think we will need to let them out more than ever this week and rely on our oline to hold their own. Tall task.
Steve has been good, not great as a play caller. His biggest weakness is in the red zone. FAR TOO MANY FIELD GOALS. Can't happen in two weeks. Have to work on some plays to put the ball in the end zone.
My opinion. 21-10 bama at the half, bama wins 34-24. I don't really think the score would be much different if D White was playing the whole game (I def could be wrong here).
For me, this season is going better than I could have expected given the injury bug on Oline and losing our elite pass rusher in week 1 has revealed what terrible depth we have at that position. Key made his money in this game last year and I feel Chaisson would make teams gameplan to stop him which would free up other pass rushers and make our rush more effective overall. If we can win out after y'all, 10-2 with our first NY6 bowl in quite some time will be an awesome season.
Sorry for the length. I'm hoping to be there in 2 weeks but life with an 8 month old, living in Waco, TX and having a very busy worklife has made this season tough to travel for. I have been to every LSU-Bama game since '06 so I'm really trying to swing it. Hope folks who travel enjoy it. This will be the best DV atmosphere in a few years due to our team performing so well. Can't beat DV at night for a high profile game such as this. Good luck from here on out and Geaux Tigers!
I expect Bama to win this game. I think it will be a tough, hard-fought game, but in the end this is probably the best Bama team I have seen, and that is definitely saying something.
Tua will be tested. This will be the best secondary y'all face all year. Greedy and Delpit are elite. Fulton has gotten better every week and is a really great DB. Battle is prone to missing tackles and has given up a couple of plays over the top but is generally at least in the right position to make plays. The untalked about guy that will have to show up (and has so far this year) is Kary Vincent. He will be responsible for TEs some, backs some, and slot some. He's an athlete and is pretty darn good in coverage.
The issue is that our pass rush has been pretty inconsistent to down right awful most of the time during the year. Even when we get pressure, we miss the QB more often than tackling him. Even elite DBs can't cover forever. I expect a few plays where Tua avoids the rush (or simply has all day) and makes some big plays. It will be even worse considering one of our best pass-rushing lbs since Chaisson went down will be forced into D White's role a lot in the first half due to the targeting penalty. I will also say that every team against us has missed on some TD throws that I don't expect Tua to miss on.
This team can be run on and that is the game plan I expect Bama to start with. Sure we made some adjustments in the Georgia game, but Smart/Chaney's abandoning the run had far more to do with us shutting down UGA than the adjustments we made. I know y'all haven't had to rely on your backs this year, but if my knowledge is correct, y'all still have some elite ball carriers. I think they will be the stars of your victory. Tua will still get some, but not quite the numbers y'all are used to. I expect bama to run for 200+, throw for around 200. 28-38 points.
On offense, the best thing I can say is that we have been inconsistent. Sometimes we can't get out of our own way, sometimes we look like we can't be stopped. It is very frustrating. We have two average SEC backs that are missing the explosive homerun capacity we have gotten used to at LSU. They are more in the Darrell Williams type mold. Good, hardnosed guys that will get run down even if they break a big one.
Joe is a gamer. I expect his best effort of the season in two weeks. His completion percentage doesn't belay his actual accuracy but he has been prone to a few WTF passes this year. His biggest attribute is his intellect. He sees the game and the field well. He's also fairly clutch (Florida game not with-standing). Our WRs will have to have their best game as well. We have some guys, but everyone on the team has been prone to drops in one game or another. Can't happen this week.
Much has been made of our oline. It has been a revolving door honestly and I can't believe they have held up as well as they have for the most part. I will say if Brumfield is back, this will be the first time since week one we have been truly healthy and can start the oline we had in week 1. (As an aside, I think this only helps LSUs offense for next year with the amount of experience these young guys are gaining this year). We keep the TEs and RBs in to protect a good bit of the time. I think we will need to let them out more than ever this week and rely on our oline to hold their own. Tall task.
Steve has been good, not great as a play caller. His biggest weakness is in the red zone. FAR TOO MANY FIELD GOALS. Can't happen in two weeks. Have to work on some plays to put the ball in the end zone.
My opinion. 21-10 bama at the half, bama wins 34-24. I don't really think the score would be much different if D White was playing the whole game (I def could be wrong here).
For me, this season is going better than I could have expected given the injury bug on Oline and losing our elite pass rusher in week 1 has revealed what terrible depth we have at that position. Key made his money in this game last year and I feel Chaisson would make teams gameplan to stop him which would free up other pass rushers and make our rush more effective overall. If we can win out after y'all, 10-2 with our first NY6 bowl in quite some time will be an awesome season.
Sorry for the length. I'm hoping to be there in 2 weeks but life with an 8 month old, living in Waco, TX and having a very busy worklife has made this season tough to travel for. I have been to every LSU-Bama game since '06 so I'm really trying to swing it. Hope folks who travel enjoy it. This will be the best DV atmosphere in a few years due to our team performing so well. Can't beat DV at night for a high profile game such as this. Good luck from here on out and Geaux Tigers!
This post was edited on 10/22/18 at 7:19 pm
Posted on 10/22/18 at 7:33 pm to jbrau22
I think our backs, specifically Jacobs, could play a big role in our passing game. With White out for the first half, we could try to really take advantage of that match-up. Same with Irv Smith at TE. Then if LSU has to try and put a Safety on them we open up someone to beat their man and get open deep. Tua doesn't need our guys wide open, if Jeudy, Waddle, or really any of those boys get just a step Tua can drop it in perfectly. I think this may be our lowest offensive production, but I just can't see anyone keeping this offense under say 28 points, and I can't see LSU scoring more than say 14 (on offense) against Bama.
Posted on 10/22/18 at 7:37 pm to jbrau22
Thanks for the thoughtful analysis.
Posted on 10/22/18 at 7:39 pm to jbrau22
We appreciate you taking the time to post on here. LSU has a good maybe great team this year, Coach O has done a fantastic job of getting your football team ready for each game. I hate the game might be possibility be stained by a not to be mentioned 1st half suspension. Most on here would agree it was a terrible call...some of LSU brethren are taking the bad call to the extreme.
Posted on 10/22/18 at 7:40 pm to AllBamaDoesIsWin
What is y'alls base set on offense this year? How often do y'all run 3 wide with 1 TE and single back? I have watched a fair amount of y'alls games this year (parts of them...if you're not a fan of BAMA, y'alls games have been boring and depressing lol). I expect this to be the starting base set to take advantage of this matchup as you say. That would have vincent playing the slot receiver which would put a line backer on your te/back.
As an aside, with D white out I also expect to see a fair amount of Jacoby Stevens in Divinity's normal starting slot. He is a hybrid safety/linebacker/athlete but has not seen the field a ton. Will be interesting to see the adjustments aranda makes to combat missing our best player.
As an aside, with D white out I also expect to see a fair amount of Jacoby Stevens in Divinity's normal starting slot. He is a hybrid safety/linebacker/athlete but has not seen the field a ton. Will be interesting to see the adjustments aranda makes to combat missing our best player.
Posted on 10/22/18 at 7:44 pm to jbrau22
quote:
If you want an honest, realist opinion from an LSU fan
At this point, I’d settle for an unrealistic LSU fan, so long as they’re not openly praying for an LSU player to tear Tua’s leg off and beat Nick Saban to death with it. My bar is very low.
Nice post, though.
Posted on 10/22/18 at 7:46 pm to SmokeTide
quote:
Most on here would agree it was a terrible call...some of LSU brethren are taking the bad call to the extreme.
I agree the call was terrible...but how many times does this happen to multiple teams throughout the year? I really like McElroy's idea of the tier 1/tier 2 foul similar to flagrant fouls in basketball. But I digress. Great teams overcome misfortune. And that is all this is.
I can hardly read tRant/tSECrant for this game. Trolling is expected every week but this takes it to another level. I came on this board last year as well to offer my perspective if any of you remember. I wish there was a place for real football talk for LSU football fans but it doesn't exist on this site. So I generally go to the opposing team boards for some real football talk game week.
I have a huge respect for 95% of the bama fans. Especially the 30s+ fans. I have had an awesome and hospitable time every time I have been to Tuscaloosa and find y'all to be a very knowledgeable and hospitable fanbase overall. LSU has the hospitable part down...knowledgeable....???
Posted on 10/22/18 at 7:50 pm to FleshEatingSalsa
quote:
not openly praying for an LSU player to tear Tua’s leg off and beat Nick Saban to death with it. My bar is very low.
A very loud, very small minority. They should be banned. Every fanbase has your terrible, low-intelligence folks. Ours is just larger by the sheer number of LSU fan posters to other teams.
Posted on 10/22/18 at 8:05 pm to jbrau22
You know how I feel about you, but I highly doubt my fellow Bama fans do.
Jbrau is good people who shoots it straight.
Jbrau is good people who shoots it straight.
Posted on 10/22/18 at 8:06 pm to jbrau22
quote:
How often do y'all run 3 wide with 1 TE and single back?
95% of the time either this formation or 4 wide.
That being said Irv Smith is more of a WR athlete and has been very effective this year.
Posted on 10/22/18 at 8:09 pm to jbrau22
quote:
That would have vincent playing the slot receiver which would put a line backer on your te/back.
Our rb's are pretty good receivers and I would argue that Irv Smith Jr. is our best receiving TE since Saban has been here.
Posted on 10/22/18 at 8:10 pm to jbrau22
quote:
I can hardly read tRant/tSECrant for this game. Trolling is expected every week but this takes it to another level. I came on this board last year as well to offer my perspective if any of you remember. I wish there was a place for real football talk for LSU football fans but it doesn't exist on this site. So I generally go to the opposing team boards for some real football talk game week.
Thanks for posting and it would be nice to keep the conversation civil. Every LSU fan I meet IRL is cool......
Posted on 10/22/18 at 8:16 pm to TideSaint
quote:
TideSaint
You remember, I still came through when we lost to troy last year. I have been through some dark times in my fandom as an LSU fan and have a longer memory than most do in this day and age. All I can say to every Bama fan is enjoy every freaking minute. And also keep the young one's in check that at some point there will be an end (though still in the distant future)
Thanks for vouching! You're good peeps.
Posted on 10/22/18 at 8:19 pm to UltimaParadox
quote:
95% of the time either this formation or 4 wide.
That being said Irv Smith is more of a WR athlete and has been very effective this year.
You're receivers are wicked fast and seem to be very sure handed...but Irv Smith is the one who worries me the most. Just bc of the matchup nightmare. And I can remember the Yeldon screen play way too clearly to forget about your rbs doing damage in the passing game. I am so freaking excited to see this matchup of your offense vs our defense. The flip side of that matchup doesn't come close to comparing.
Posted on 10/22/18 at 8:33 pm to jbrau22
I do think Tua has his first INT this game, but I honestly don't think it matters.
Posted on 10/22/18 at 8:55 pm to jbrau22
Good job with the post. Burrow has been extremely good with those quick little slants. Those plays are frustrating as hell Another thing that worries me about Burrow is his legs. He has decent speed and I'm sure he'll catch our DBs with their backs turned a few times. I sure wish Saban would mix some traditional zones in
On offense I think Irv Smith will have a nice game and also expect Tua to hit some pump and go's. He'll either complete the pass or force a holding or pass interference. Our running game has been hit or miss a little. We looked better this past game with the change we made.
On offense I think Irv Smith will have a nice game and also expect Tua to hit some pump and go's. He'll either complete the pass or force a holding or pass interference. Our running game has been hit or miss a little. We looked better this past game with the change we made.
Posted on 10/22/18 at 9:22 pm to Cobrasize
I think that will be the issue for LSU. We have to many weapons for Tua to throw to and LSU does not have enough DBs to cover them all. The strength of Tua is finding the open man and hitting him in stride. The last part is where we score the big plays.
Outside of White your LBs do not seem great in coverage and I think Saban will expose that with Jacobs and Waddle. LSU may have played a tougher schedule but they have not seen a passing attack like what they are going to see.
I think maybe UA 10pt lead at half and it opens up in the 2nd half when Burrow is forced to win the game with his are. I could easily see a 21-24 point win even though the game was closer then that but mistakes late by LSU.
Outside of White your LBs do not seem great in coverage and I think Saban will expose that with Jacobs and Waddle. LSU may have played a tougher schedule but they have not seen a passing attack like what they are going to see.
I think maybe UA 10pt lead at half and it opens up in the 2nd half when Burrow is forced to win the game with his are. I could easily see a 21-24 point win even though the game was closer then that but mistakes late by LSU.
Posted on 10/22/18 at 9:36 pm to TideSaint
quote:
You know how I feel about you, but I highly doubt my fellow Bama fans do.
Jbrau is good people who shoots it straight.
Figured as much since he was here.
Posted on 10/22/18 at 9:49 pm to jbrau22
Appreciate the post and thoughts.
I may have on some Crimson glasses because I think it’s off about a TD both ways, but you never can tell. Our defense has come to play when we need it and LSU has largely struggled on O so I’d give them 14-17. Bama’s O obviously hasn’t been challenged and if the lowest point total of the season is 39 with Tua only playing one drive in that 3rd quarter, I’d give Bama 37-45.
In my real homer glasses, I think we’re all overestimating home field advantage and Tua will be Tua and we’ll be up 31-3 at half like we have all year.
I may have on some Crimson glasses because I think it’s off about a TD both ways, but you never can tell. Our defense has come to play when we need it and LSU has largely struggled on O so I’d give them 14-17. Bama’s O obviously hasn’t been challenged and if the lowest point total of the season is 39 with Tua only playing one drive in that 3rd quarter, I’d give Bama 37-45.
In my real homer glasses, I think we’re all overestimating home field advantage and Tua will be Tua and we’ll be up 31-3 at half like we have all year.
Posted on 10/22/18 at 10:36 pm to ALtoID
quote:
ALtoID
I'm definitely not saying it isn't possible. But LSU has only given up 9 points in the first quarter and 47 points in the first half spread over 7 games. The most in the first half we have allowed is 14 to both UF and AU. Both scored 2 TDs in the second quarter.
Recognizing that you guys are far and away the best offense we have faced (sadly Ole Miss being 2nd and we both proved why big 12 teams don't belong in the SEC), I still have a hard time seeing it being 31-3 at the half but I love the Crimson glasses on! It's what makes college football great.
Normally I would be way more optimistic about our chances this year and I am definitely not saying we have no chance. But losing 7 in a row to a team does some funny things to a guy. Hell it wasn't that long ago that we hadn't won a game against y'all in DV in like 3 decades. On a side note, has Alabama ever lost 7 consecutive games in a series to one team?
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