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re: Case Can Be Made For Strengthening SEC Football Schedules

Posted on 3/17/18 at 7:32 am to
Posted by BamaGradinTn
Murfreesboro
Member since Dec 2008
26953 posts
Posted on 3/17/18 at 7:32 am to
quote:

In '17 Ohio State gets in they beat Cal or someone instead of losing to Oklahoma



As has been made perfectly clear by umpteen zillion analysts, it wasn't the Oklahoma game that screwed up that vaunted record you speak of for Ohio State.

But go ahead and keep clinging to your belief.
This post was edited on 3/17/18 at 7:33 am
Posted by TidalSurge1
Ft Walton Beach
Member since Sep 2016
36467 posts
Posted on 3/17/18 at 8:34 am to
SOLUTION: The CFP should adopt two simple schedule criteria rules that must be met to qualify for being ranked in the CFP Top-4 --

(1) P5 -- Schedule at least 10 P5s and no FCS.

(2) G5 -- Schedule at least 3 P5s and no FCS.

Notes: Rule #1 applies to Notre Dame and BYU. Rule #2 applies to UMass and Army. That's 66 P5-level teams and 64 G5-level teams.

ETA: Those schedule criteria rules to qualify for CFP Top-4 ranking are not a "must do" mandate. Schools could still schedule however they want. Those who aren't good enough to make or win the CFP want schedules that give them a better shot at bowl eligibility.

It's a simple solution that should actually work. With the CFP schedule criteria rules in place, G5 schools with fairly big stadiums and capable of top-25 rankings (e.g., Memphis, Houston, UCF, USF, SDSU, Fresno, CSU, Boise St.) should be able to schedule 3 home/aways vs good P5s.
This post was edited on 3/17/18 at 1:15 pm
Posted by phil4bama
Emerald Coast of PCB
Member since Jul 2011
11454 posts
Posted on 3/17/18 at 9:15 am to
You’re on point Surge. But I agree it must be mandated for all P5 schools, we shouldn’t do it unilaterally.
This post was edited on 3/17/18 at 9:15 am
Posted by TidalSurge1
Ft Walton Beach
Member since Sep 2016
36467 posts
Posted on 3/17/18 at 9:26 am to
See the ETA stuff in my post above.
This post was edited on 3/17/18 at 2:43 pm
Posted by phil4bama
Emerald Coast of PCB
Member since Jul 2011
11454 posts
Posted on 3/17/18 at 4:52 pm to
This may be getting esoteric but I might add one other criteria to reduce the luck factor. I think a team’s relative strength should be a 3 or 4 year rolling average so, for example, Bama gets credit for beating FSU last season. By the end of the year, that win was totally discounted which wasn’t fair to us. We beat a top 3 team and just happened to ruin their season but I am convinced a healthy FSU is nowhere near a 6-6 team.
By the same token, I don’t want anyone getting too much credit for beating a flash in the pan team like UCF or Western Michigan. Judging those teams based on a 3 to 4 year rolling average record would smooth out the spikes both up and down.
Posted by TomRollTideRitter
Member since Aug 2016
12617 posts
Posted on 3/17/18 at 7:02 pm to
quote:

As has been made perfectly clear by umpteen zillion analysts, it wasn't the Oklahoma game that screwed up that vaunted record you speak of for Ohio State


There's no way we would have gotten in over Ohio State if they had been 12-1 conference champs even with that awful loss to Iowa.

I'm not arguing that Ohio State got screwed because we were the better team, and if we'd played @Mizzou or someone similar to Iowa, we would've taken care of business unlike Urban.

I don't see how this past season justifies us scheduling harder though. We played probably the worst looking conference schedule we'll ever have- drawing the bottom two East teams and every West team except us and Miss State having an OOC loss, and we still rightfully got in.

Unless mandated by committee, I see no reason to schedule harder OOC than what we've been doing. As long as we play one good team OOC, we'll be fine.
This post was edited on 3/17/18 at 7:13 pm
Posted by TidalSurge1
Ft Walton Beach
Member since Sep 2016
36467 posts
Posted on 3/17/18 at 7:04 pm to
Regarding rankings, each team should be ranked based on it's performance relative to the quality of it's opponents for the current season only. No consideration should be given to anything prior to the current season. The committee adheres to that, as they should.

The committee refused to rank UCF any higher than they did because of their schedule. They knew all of the teams they ranked ahead of UCF could've also been undefeated against UCF's slate of opponents.

Kirby Holcutt stated more than once that the committee valued Bama's win vs FSU and felt they were a much better team before the costly injuries they suffered in that game.

Holcutt also indicated that they felt Bama's performances vs Miss State and Auburn were impacted by so many injuries, especially its LB corp, and considered that Bama would have several of them back for the playoffs.

The committee does a very good job, imo.
This post was edited on 3/17/18 at 7:30 pm
Posted by 3down10
Member since Sep 2014
22474 posts
Posted on 3/17/18 at 8:11 pm to
quote:


In '16 Penn State gets in if they beat Buffalo or someone instead losing to Pitt



Pitt was a shitty team/schedule.

quote:


In '17 Ohio State gets in they beat Cal or someone instead of losing to Oklahoma


This is false. Ohio St getting blown out by an otherwise 6-6 team by 30 points is what did Ohio St in.

Posted by 3down10
Member since Sep 2014
22474 posts
Posted on 3/17/18 at 8:12 pm to
quote:

I think a team’s relative strength should be a 3 or 4 year rolling average so, for example, Bama gets credit for beating FSU last season.



Posted by 3down10
Member since Sep 2014
22474 posts
Posted on 3/17/18 at 8:16 pm to
However, the 3 or 4 year rolling average would be a good way to judge if G5 teams are worthy of being scheduled to meet the SEC rule that each team schedule an OOC P5 every year.

So like a BYU, Boise St etc. Use their 3 or 4 year rolling average to determine if they are good enough to be scheduled.
Posted by TidalSurge1
Ft Walton Beach
Member since Sep 2016
36467 posts
Posted on 3/17/18 at 8:27 pm to
quote:

Unless mandated by committee, I see no reason to schedule harder OOC than what we've been doing. As long as we play one good team OOC, we'll be fine.

The B1G, Big12 and PAC12 play 9 conf games.
The ACC & SEC bullies only play 8 conf games.
The B1G has banned playing any FCS games.

2018 Schedules:
Ohio St: 11 P5 - 9 conf, Ore St, @TCU, Tulane
So Cal: 11 P5 - 9 conf, UNLV, @Texas, N Dame
Oklahoma: 10 P5 - 9 conf, FAU, UCLA, Army
Clemson: 10 P5 - 8 conf, Fur, ATM, GaSo, USCe
Alabama: 9 P5 - 8 conf, Lville, ArkSt, ULL, Citadel
Georgia: 9 P5 - 8 conf, Peay, MTSU, UMass, GT

(I know Ore St is terrible lately, but TCU is good.)
This post was edited on 3/23/18 at 2:20 pm
Posted by TomRollTideRitter
Member since Aug 2016
12617 posts
Posted on 3/17/18 at 8:37 pm to
quote:

Pitt was a shitty team/schedule.


They beat Clemson, but it doesn't really matter. Point is Penn State wouldn't have lost to a worse team, and they would've gotten in over Ohio State had they been 12-1 with a conference championship and head to head win over OSU. Instead they got left out because they were 11-2 vs Ohio State's 11-1.

quote:

This is false. Ohio St getting blown out by an otherwise 6-6 team by 30 points is what did Ohio St in. 


If Ohio State had been 12-1 with their only loss being that blowout to Iowa, they would've gotten in. The committee said themselves Ohio State and Alabama were very close. 1 less loss would've absolutely made the difference based on what the committee said.
This post was edited on 3/17/18 at 8:48 pm
Posted by phil4bama
Emerald Coast of PCB
Member since Jul 2011
11454 posts
Posted on 3/17/18 at 8:39 pm to
Georgia has no margin for error whatsoever with that shitty OOC schedule. Kirby better win impressively and not stumble or they will be left out.
Posted by TidalSurge1
Ft Walton Beach
Member since Sep 2016
36467 posts
Posted on 3/17/18 at 8:43 pm to
quote:

Georgia has no margin for error whatsoever with that shitty OOC schedule. Kirby better win impressively and not stumble or they will be left out.

Same for Bama. We can't afford to lose a game. L'ville finished unranked last year. We play UT & Mizzou from the East, both weak. Ark & OM likely won't be very good. AU, LSU, MSU & ATM may be our best hope for wins vs ranked teams. But they all play us and each other. AU plays TN & UGA. LSU plays UGA & UF. MSU plays UK & UF. ATM plays UK & USCe. It would help our SOS for AU to beat Wash., LSU to beat Miami, MSU to beat Kan. St. and ATM to upset Clemson in College Station.

The SEC could get left out of the CFP this year. The top teams from the other P5 conferences all play more P5 opponents than UA & UGA. Ohio St and USC play two more and no FCS. Oklahoma also plays no FCS. Clemson plays an FCS, but plays two pretty good SEC teams, ATM & USCe.
This post was edited on 3/17/18 at 10:48 pm
Posted by TomRollTideRitter
Member since Aug 2016
12617 posts
Posted on 3/17/18 at 8:49 pm to
Do y'all have an example where a team got left out for a bad OOC schedule?

In '14 TCU played 8-4 Minnesota and got passed by for Ohio State who played 6-6 Virginia Tech.

In '15 there wasn't any debate.

I guess in '16 you could say Ohio State got rewarded for playing @Oklahoma opposed to Penn State playing @Pitt. Those teams had different records though, and Washington got in that year playing Rutgers, Idaho, and Portland State OOC.

In '17, Ohio State played a better team than us OOC, and they didn't get in because they had a worse record, loss, and team.
This post was edited on 3/17/18 at 8:55 pm
Posted by 3down10
Member since Sep 2014
22474 posts
Posted on 3/17/18 at 9:17 pm to
quote:


They beat Clemson, but it doesn't really matter. Point is Penn State wouldn't have lost to a worse team, and they would've gotten in over Ohio State had they been 12-1 with a conference championship and head to head win over OSU. Instead they got left out because they were 11-2 vs Ohio State's 11-1.



This is a really silly game you are playing. If Alabama hadn't played Auburn in 2013, if this team hadn't played this team they lost to in whatever year.

It's all bullshite because you can't pick those games out. Penn St didn't give a shite about Pitt when they scheduled it, and it doesn't matter what is said, they are still going to schedule the games. There is a reason it's an upset.

That said, Penn St also lost to Michigan that year by 39 points while only beating Ohio St by 3. The head to head is important, but it's hard to really say Penn St was a better team and that Ohio St wasn't just having a bad night. I certainly thought Ohio St was the better team.

quote:

If Ohio State had been 12-1 with their only loss being that blowout to Iowa, they would've gotten in. The committee said themselves Ohio State and Alabama were very close. 1 less loss would've absolutely made the difference based on what the committee said.


No, they wouldn't have. And if they did, it would have been because we lacked a high quality win, the very thing you are saying punishes people.

In reality, what punishes people is losing. And you can sit here and say "take away this loss and that loss" game all you want, but the reality is - you have to prove you are among the 4 best teams.


Posted by TomRollTideRitter
Member since Aug 2016
12617 posts
Posted on 3/17/18 at 9:30 pm to
quote:

In reality, what punishes people is losing.


Exactly and playing a harder schedule puts you at risk to lose more. Until I see the committee punish a P5 team for a really weak schedule (i.e. a 2 loss team getting in over a 1 loss team because of their schedule), I say we schedule the way we have been. It's worked out perfectly so far.
Posted by 3down10
Member since Sep 2014
22474 posts
Posted on 3/17/18 at 9:54 pm to
quote:


Exactly and playing a harder schedule puts you at risk to lose more. Until I see the committee punish a P5 team for a really weak schedule (i.e. a 2 loss team getting in over a 1 loss team because of their schedule), I say we schedule the way we have been. It's worked out perfectly so far.


Wisconsin last year.

Auburn if they hadn't lost to Georgia the 2nd time.

Now you've seen it.

This post was edited on 3/17/18 at 9:55 pm
Posted by TomRollTideRitter
Member since Aug 2016
12617 posts
Posted on 3/17/18 at 10:07 pm to
In that case Auburn would have a conference championship and Wisconsin would not. I'm talking identical resumes except strength of schedule, and the team with the worse strength of schedule has one less loss.

I just don't understand why we'd change it up when we've gotten in all 4 years with this scheduling style. If the CFP wants to implement regulated scheduling for better games, I'd be all for it, but I think right now we'd be putting ourselves at a disadvantage to play more P5 games than we have been.
This post was edited on 3/17/18 at 10:19 pm
Posted by Cobrasize
Birmingham
Member since Jun 2013
49680 posts
Posted on 3/17/18 at 10:12 pm to
I would like 9 conference games, and only schedule power 5 teams. I would want this for all power 5 conferences though. I would also like the SEC to implement a bye week. If all teams have the same weekend off, then it's not an advantage.
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