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Alabama vs Auburn In-Depth Match-Ups

Posted on 11/19/17 at 6:50 pm
Posted by BTide
Member since Dec 2016
252 posts
Posted on 11/19/17 at 6:50 pm
While stats do not tell the whole story, especially without substantial situational breakdown, I feel like this look into stat rankings and match-ups is quite beneficial in terms of what to expect in style for teams. It is also interesting to see how these styles may potentially interact.

First, I will breakdown Alabama's offense vs Auburn's defense.

Alabama Offense vs Auburn Defense
Yards Per Play 9th vs 4th
Total Offense 15th vs 10th
Points Per Game 7th vs 8th

So far examining total stats, it shows Alabama has quite an effective offense. The offense is especially good at yardage per play; however, Auburn's defense is downright elite in yards per play and claims the advantage here.

Rush YPC 7th vs 9th
Rush YPG 9th vs 16th

As expected, Alabama's run game is the focus of the offense. While technically Alabama gets the italicized ranking here in YPC, the difference is very little. Auburn is not at all an easy team to run against. Their opponents have clearly tried though, deflating their YPG ranking in relation to the more-important YPC stat.

Pass YPA 9th vs 5th
Pass Efficiency 4th vs 11th
Pass YPG 82nd vs 20th

It is surprising here to see that when Alabama does pass, it has been very effective. Alabama does not pass the ball very often though, but possibly will need to more than the team would like. Auburn's pass defense is excellent, ranking even higher than their vaunted run defense. Alabama's efficiency is highly elevated due to the care with the ball, and lack of interceptions. Hurts has shown though that he can turn it on when he needs to, so both fan bases should be holding their breath every time the ball is thrown.

3rd Down Conversions 41st vs 26th
Tackles For Loss Allowed/ Game 5th vs 42nd
Sacks Allowed/ Game 49th vs 15th

There are some surprises here. As efficient and effective as Alabama's offense has been, it is merely average at converting third downs. It could be due to the number of sacks Alabama has allowed, which again is merely average in preventing them. However, able to be determined from these stats is that when Alabama runs the ball, it has been very productive in gaining positive yards and not allowing lost plays. The tackles for loss is a massive, massive upgrade from the 2016 offense. While Auburn's defensive line is fearsome, they do not rank quite as high as expected in sacks nor tackles for loss. Perhaps Auburn's defense is simply highly effective at limiting positive gains.
This post was edited on 11/19/17 at 6:52 pm
Posted by BTide
Member since Dec 2016
252 posts
Posted on 11/19/17 at 6:51 pm to
Now for Auburn's offense vs Alabama's defense.

Auburn Offense vs Alabama Defense

Yards Per Play 20th vs 1st
Total Offense 17th vs 1st
Points Per Game[b] 17th vs 1st

Auburn's offense ranks fairly well in the total stats, but they face a juggernaut of a defense.

[b]Rush YPC
26th vs 1st
Rush YPG 18th vs 2nd

While Kerryon Johnson is a fantastic running back, and Auburn does run the ball often, surprisingly they rank higher in passing per play statistics. Alabama's offensive identity for years has been stopping the run, so it will be interesting to see how Auburn does against that.

Pass YPA 8th vs 1st
Pass Efficiency 8th vs 1st
Pass YPG 62nd vs 3rd

Stidham has proven when he is given the chance to throw, he can be very dangerous. Auburn does not pass the ball very often, however. Most teams have to have a highly efficient passing game to contend with Alabama, so it will be interesting to see that battle.

3rd Down Conversions 18th vs 15th
Tackles For Loss Allowed/ Game 77th vs 34th
Sacks Allowed/ Game 88th vs 21st

Auburn's offense is pretty good at converting third downs, and Alabama's defense is right there. Auburn's offense has been plagued with negative plays. It is likely that this stat is inflated due to the catastrophic performance against Clemson early in the season, and that Auburn has improved in this stat since then. Alabama's defense is a very different style this season compared to last year, and does not have quite the same aggressiveness with forcing negative plays and terrorizing quarterbacks in the backfield. Alabama will need to try to get after Stidham though.
Posted by TheSandman
AuburnUndercover
Member since Nov 2010
19409 posts
Posted on 11/19/17 at 7:00 pm to
see this is why I'm hanging around this week

excellent breakdown and much appreciated

Posted by Eli Goldfinger
Member since Sep 2016
32785 posts
Posted on 11/19/17 at 9:36 pm to
So...
Bama O = Auburn D
Bama D > Auburn O

This could be important...
Bama Spec Teams < Auburn Spec Teams (I think)
This post was edited on 11/19/17 at 9:38 pm
Posted by SECSolomonGrundy
Slaughter Swamp
Member since Jun 2012
15842 posts
Posted on 11/19/17 at 9:57 pm to
Nah, Auburn has a shitty punter. Bama has a great one. Problem is, Bama hasn't had a solid punt returner all year.


AU has the advantage at kicker. But Pappy has been better than average lately. Although I've yet to see an explanation as to why he wasn't kicking Saturday.

Bama has been really good on coverage teams. I think Bama has the overall advantage on STs, even though Auburn has an excellent kicker.
Posted by narddogg81
Vancouver
Member since Jan 2012
19669 posts
Posted on 11/19/17 at 9:59 pm to
quote:

Bama Spec Teams < Auburn Spec Teams (I think)
only becasue we cant seem to catch punts. other than that our kicking is good, our punting is the best in the country, and our punt and kick coverage is generally just fine
Posted by prevatt33
Member since Dec 2011
2837 posts
Posted on 11/19/17 at 10:03 pm to
quote:

Bama Spec Teams < Auburn Spec Teams (I think)


Special teams rank (per S&P)

Alabama = 32nd

Auburn = 61st (Best kicker in CFB cancelled out by worst coverage units in CFB)

Posted by SummerOfGeorge
Member since Jul 2013
102699 posts
Posted on 11/19/17 at 10:22 pm to
quote:

Best kicker in CFB cancelled out by worst coverage units in CFB


Unfortunately we aren't well suited to take advantage of that.
Posted by narddogg81
Vancouver
Member since Jan 2012
19669 posts
Posted on 11/20/17 at 2:18 am to
quote:

Although I've yet to see an explanation as to why he wasn't kicking Saturday.
saban talked about it in hi presser, pulled something and they didn't want to aggravate
Posted by Eli Goldfinger
Member since Sep 2016
32785 posts
Posted on 11/20/17 at 6:06 am to
quote:

Auburn = 61st (Best kicker in CFB cancelled out by worst coverage units in CFB)


This makes me feel better.
But how bad will their coverage need to be in order for Bama to get a 20+ yard return?
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