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TideSaint
Alabama Fan
Prattville - God's Country
Member since Sep 2008
59537 posts

Alabama Board Coronavirus Thread - Second Wave Edition? Still No Politics Though
Let's try this again.

Boz and I have decided to be much stricter in the moderation of this thread. So, any derailing will be deleted.

Alabama COVID-19 Case Tracking

Alabama's COVID-19 Data and Surveillance Dashboard

Rt.live

quote:

These are up-to-date values for Rt, a key measure of how fast the virus is growing. It’s the average number of people who become infected by an infectious person. If Rt is above 1.0, the virus will spread quickly. When Rt is below 1.0, the virus will stop spreading. 




This post was edited on 6/18 at 7:28 am


rcbama
Alabama Fan
birmingham
Member since Sep 2017
129 posts

re: Alabama Board Coronavirus Thread - Second Wave Edition? Still No Politics Though
Thank you so much. The other was getting very tedious.

I don't really care what the various political hacks think but I do care about what is going on with this deadly disease.


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38
BlackPawnMartyr
Alabama Fan
Houston, TX
Member since Dec 2010
12824 posts

re: Alabama Board Coronavirus Thread - Second Wave Edition? Still No Politics Though
Maybe you should just tell us want you want us to say, or maybe you and Boz can have a conversation and we will just watch.


TideSaint
Alabama Fan
Prattville - God's Country
Member since Sep 2008
59537 posts

re: Alabama Board Coronavirus Thread - Second Wave Edition? Still No Politics Though
Did you read the posts in the previous thread from the last two days?



Bobby OG Johnson
Member since Apr 2015
4189 posts

re: Alabama Board Coronavirus Thread - Second Wave Edition? Still No Politics Though




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51
BlackPawnMartyr
Alabama Fan
Houston, TX
Member since Dec 2010
12824 posts

re: Alabama Board Coronavirus Thread - Second Wave Edition? Still No Politics Though
No I'm sure they were terrible. Probably best to either let them go at it in that one thread or push the talk to political board. This whole thing is politics now so it's going to be fiery and highly divisive. "When you combine sports and politics you get politics, when you combine science and politics you get politics."


TideWarrior
Alabama Fan
Asheville/Chapel Hill NC
Member since Sep 2009
7437 posts
 Online 

re: Alabama Board Coronavirus Thread - Second Wave Edition? Still No Politics Though
quote:

The coronavirus pandemic is spreading out from urban centers and increasingly infecting residents in small rural counties, even as some of those areas begin to loosen lockdown requirements aimed at stopping its spread.

A new analysis shows nearly three-quarters of Americans live in counties where the virus is now spreading widely. Another 200 counties have seen significant growth in infection trends in the last week, making them high-prevalence counties — areas where the virus has infected at least one in a thousand people.

Like ripples in a pond, the virus is radiating out from its epicenters in large cities.


quote:

“Most of these counties are small rural counties,” said William Frey, the Brookings Institution demographer who conducted the analysis. “Very very few are what you would call inner city counties or inner suburb counties.”


TideWarrior
Alabama Fan
Asheville/Chapel Hill NC
Member since Sep 2009
7437 posts
 Online 

re: Alabama Board Coronavirus Thread - Second Wave Edition? Still No Politics Though
quote:

A new study suggests that talking loudly may further spread the coronavirus. Researchers from the National Institutes of Health found a single minute of loud speaking could generate more than 1,000 droplets that could carry the virus and remain airborne between eight and 14 minutes.

Scientists say talking at a normal level in an enclosed space may also increase the risk of viral spread.


No talking in public I guess


rcbama
Alabama Fan
birmingham
Member since Sep 2017
129 posts

re: Alabama Board Coronavirus Thread - Second Wave Edition? Still No Politics Though
We will see how this works as we open up the economy more and more.

That said, I don't think we have a choice. Got to open up and take the consequences.


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The Spleen
Alabama Fan
Member since Dec 2010
29248 posts
 Online 

re: Alabama Board Coronavirus Thread - Second Wave Edition? Still No Politics Though
quote:

I'm sure they were terrible.


They weren't, unless it turned ugly late yesterday afternoon. But I get people not wanting that in the thread, so my apologies for my contributions to that.



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RollTide4Ever
Harvard Fan
Nashville
Member since Nov 2006
14177 posts

re: Alabama Board Coronavirus Thread - Second Wave Edition? Still No Politics Though
This post was edited on 5/16 at 8:56 am


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The Spleen
Alabama Fan
Member since Dec 2010
29248 posts
 Online 

re: Alabama Board Coronavirus Thread - Second Wave Edition? Still No Politics Though
So the ADPH dashboard updated their 5/14 numbers sometime last night, and 5/14 is now the highest daily confirmed cases in the state. Perhaps that will be an outlier, but not a great sign in light of the restrictions being lifted this week. Not saying there is correlation there, but rather that that decision was possibly a bit premature, or too liberal. That of course remains to be seen.

The seven day average has flatlined over the last week or so, so hopefully that means we're at the peak.
This post was edited on 5/16 at 9:42 am


wm72
New York/Roma
Member since Mar 2010
6989 posts

re: Alabama Board Coronavirus Thread - Second Wave Edition? Still No Politics Though

I hope the increase is mainly tied to increased testing capacity.

I do know personally of one factory in south/central AL which has been having an issue with positive cases over the past two weeks.

They had been delayed in getting increased testing to avoid closing the factory for a few days but may now be adding those cases.




The Spleen
Alabama Fan
Member since Dec 2010
29248 posts
 Online 

re: Alabama Board Coronavirus Thread - Second Wave Edition? Still No Politics Though
quote:

I hope the increase is mainly tied to increased testing capacity.




That is likely the case, though I read this morning we still lag behind the rest of the country in our testing rate.

And the 14 day average doesn’t show a flattening, but rather a steady increase for the past month. Likely also primarily from more testing, but even still that seems to indicate this virus is more prevalent than the actual numbers show. And a lot of people here in Birmingham seem to have abandoned the safer at home guidelines this past week. Lot more cars on the road, fewer masks in the grocery stores, we’ve gotten several invites to meet for dinner, pools opening, etc. Just seems people are of the belief we are in the clear.


rcbama
Alabama Fan
birmingham
Member since Sep 2017
129 posts

re: Alabama Board Coronavirus Thread - Second Wave Edition? Still No Politics Though
Last two weeks 23000 died nationally.

Since 5/6 or ten days

Ga 4000 cases 280deaths

Al 3000 cases 145 deaths

case increase is predictable due to increased testing

I am in the dead if you get it group with diabetes and COPD
but I understand there is no choice but to open things up.
The country can not survive economicaly being shut down for
months. Folks like me just have to stay sheltered. Sucks but it is what it is.

Number of cases don't bother me like number of deaths with the caveat that number of cases means there are that many more people to spread it.


1BamaRTR
New Orleans Saints Fan
In Your Head Blvd
Member since Apr 2015
15513 posts

re: Alabama Board Coronavirus Thread - Second Wave Edition? Still No Politics Though
I think something like 35% of the deaths (as of 2 weeks ago so it might’ve gone up) in Alabama were from nursing homes. I know they all shutdown early but it’s inevitable I guess given the small environment they live in.


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Evolved Simian
Alabama Fan
Bushwood Country Club
Member since Sep 2010
16449 posts

re: Alabama Board Coronavirus Thread - Second Wave Edition? Still No Politics Though
quote:

So the ADPH dashboard updated their 5/14 numbers sometime last night, and 5/14 is now the highest daily confirmed cases in the state. Perhaps that will be an outlier, but not a great sign in light of the restrictions being lifted this week. Not saying there is correlation there, but rather that that decision was possibly a bit premature, or too liberal. That of course remains to be seen.

The seven day average has flatlined over the last week or so, so hopefully that means we're at the peak.


In all honesty, total case and new case numbers are a direct function of testing and aren't very meaningful as we test more people who have few or no symptoms. From mid March through May 8, Alabama had performed 114k tests. Last week alone, we did 30k tests to bring that number up to 144k. The first six weeks of testing, we did 74k. In just over two weeks since, we've done 70k.

The test results were an overall 8.8% positive rate through the end of April. Since then, the positive rate is only 6.4%.

We are almost a month removed now from peak ICU and ventilator usage. UAB, the largest hospital in the state (and third largest public hospital in the country) is down about half in the COVID ICU since that peak. There are 1,903 ICU beds total in Alabama, not including new COVID expansions. We never came close to filling them (UAB peaked at 63 and sits around 35 at the last update I saw). It's very possible that a stay at home order to "flatten the curve" was never even necessary in Alabama, but we acted with caution, which is fine in the beginning. Cases might go up with this soft reopening, but I doubt our hospital capacity will be exceeded.

We are at a point now where we have a VERY good understanding of who is truly in danger from this virus. We can easily use specific, targeted measures to protect them and avoid further increasing the damage from the looming tidal waves of social, economic, psychological, and secondary health crises bearing down on us.
This post was edited on 5/16 at 11:38 am


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Evolved Simian
Alabama Fan
Bushwood Country Club
Member since Sep 2010
16449 posts

re: Alabama Board Coronavirus Thread - Second Wave Edition? Still No Politics Though
quote:

I am in the dead if you get it group with diabetes and COPD


I take immunosuppressants to prevent organ rejection. I don't know how much that elevates my risk, but my transplant doctors made it clear early on that even simple infections could be very difficult or even deadly for me. I'm in my 40's so that probably helps some, but I've been taking precautions because I don't want to try and take on this virus with a suppressed immune system.

quote:

I understand there is no choice but to open things up.
The country can not survive economicaly being shut down for
months. Folks like me just have to stay sheltered. Sucks but it is what it is.


I realize that most people under retirement age don't have many, if any, of the highest risk factors (age combined with cardiovascular disease, diabetes, or lung disease are at the top and account for most of the deaths). It's a shame that 36 million healthy people have had to lose their jobs (it is expected that at least 42% of job losses will be permanent), their financial security, and many weeks of access to important services, and access to preventive and diagnostic health care, over this.

We've known for many weeks which groups were going to account for most of the deaths (98.8% of deaths in MN, 97% in Alabama). That works out to about a 0.1% death rate for healthy people among known cases and as low as .005-.05% (among the otherwise healthy) when accounting for results from antibody tests that have revealed millions of completely asymptomatic cases in places like New York. In hindsight, we should have begun targeted measures for at risk people at least a month ago, while easing up on those not at risk so we didn't needlessly ruin the lives of so many millions of people.

But hindsight, as they say, is 20/20.
This post was edited on 5/16 at 12:34 pm


CrimsonShadow
Alabama Fan
Montgomery
Member since Nov 2015
799 posts

re: Alabama Board Coronavirus Thread - Second Wave Edition? Still No Politics Though
Educated and sensible post. Thank you, I wish more people could realize what you just wrote. There are some around here who are in constant panic mode and want to jail anyone who isn't wearing a mask.

I sympathize with you and others who are at such high risk. My Dad is 84 and won't go anywhere, even though he is in good health and able to drive himself.I am not worried for myself but I don't see him to be sure I don't carry it to him.

Praying for your continued health and safety.


phil4bama
Alabama Fan
Emerald Coast of PCB
Member since Jul 2011
8793 posts

re: Alabama Board Coronavirus Thread - Second Wave Edition? Still No Politics Though
More and more anecdotal evidence pointing to coronovirus sneaking into the US as early as January. A couple of cases even suggest December.


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