re: Alabama Board Coronavirus Thread

Where'd that image come from Cobra?

After I saw the image, I did some quick and dirty comparison of hospitalizations vs new cases in Alabama. It was really interesting.

Since cases can peak and valley a little bit I used the 7 day average for new cases going back to March 26.

The first number is the number of reported hospitalizations for that date. The second is the 7 day average for new cases on that date. The third is the number of people in the hospital divided by that new case number.

03/26/20 106 65 1.63
04/09/20 324 224 1.44
04/23/20 406 214 1.89
05/07/20 502 335 1.49
05/21/20 574 362 1.58
06/04/20 601 382 1.57
06/18/20 668 760 0.87
06/26/20 668 779 0.85

Two months ago there were almost 2 people in the hospital for every new case added. Today there's less than one.

If that holds up, something's certainly different - either the virus is weaker or the treatment methods have significantly improved.

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Two months ago there were almost 2 people in the hospital for every new case added. Today there's less than one.

If that holds up, something's certainly different - either the virus is weaker or the treatment methods have significantly improved.

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That seems to be the case across the country right now.

I definitely think some of the treatment methods have improved, which was one of the strongest arguments for the severe social distancing early on.

Most notable has been the recent recognition that almost opposite treatments for different effects are needed (some severe cases are due to an overzealous immune system response whereas other patients need immune system boosters).


I certainly hope that there is some weakening of the virus itself but I haven't seen real research in any direction on that to this point.


I would add that there's a third variable to consider in addition to the two you mention: recent case surges haven't reached the same percentage of at-risk people the unchecked early spread did.


It seems that a higher percentage of current cases seem to be to younger people.

In that case, hospital and death rates will be proportionate to the degree that we can keep all the "out and about" young people catching it recently but having light or no symptoms from spreading it back through more susceptible demographics over the next few weeks.

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ETA: and unfortunately, a significant number of the most vulnerable (nursing home residents) have already been reaped by COVID, culling the herd as it were. There are fewer serious cases because they have been removed from the population sample via death.

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I was also thinking that same thing - it's already killed a high percentage of the people it was going to kill.

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Med community will always lean toward being over-safe until they learn new information. I don't mind that aspect.

They walked back the asymptomatic report from WHO/overseas but I think that needs more study. If true, this could be a huge breakthrough in getting things back to normal

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The confusion about "non-symptomatic" spread provides a good example of just how the intersection of the slow process of scientific research and political response to initial findings has played out during this epidemic.

One good example is that of the German epidemiologists tasked with tracing one of the first outbreaks of cases in Germany, concentrated in a motor works factory in January. They were able to establish beyond much doubt that the initial spreader was a visiting Chinese business associate. The problem was that the person in question had not shown perceptible symptoms during her visit and only extremely light ones later when already back in China, when she tested positive.

Their initial research findings were met with immediate resistance from agencies within the German government, obviously since circulating the idea that people without symptoms could be spreading Covid would be about the most alarming possible news.

The lone scientific objection to the study centered on one detail: was the spreader really absolutely non-symptomatic at the time of transmission?

Criticism pointed to the spreader saying she may have felt a little tired during her brief visit to Germany and on the plane back to China but had thought it was likely just due to jet lag until she had tested positive a few days later back in China.

This is where much of the confusion became quite politically derived since some government higher-ups and press receptive to their cause immediately employed a full-court press to cast doubt over the study.

However, the detail effaced from discussions simply discounting the theory as "debunked" was the most significant one:

Even if the carrier could be considered scientifically "symptomatic", that the symptoms were too light to be measured by anything other than a Covid test and could be confused with just being a "little bit jet-lagged" would not really make that much difference in tracing and controlling the spread.

Of course, the job of science is to continually achieve greater precision through rigorous criticism and such criticism means it is working as it should. The eventual non-peer reviewed study -- and stronger for the actual scientific criticism -- was published by the New England Journal of Medicine but weeks after the team's initial efforts to spread the findings.

The interesting issue is how the "big picture" of the findings was almost completely obfuscated for a month when that was the best information to inform a better "on-the-fly" response to the virus and it was not the detail in question.


LINK to NEJM paper

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I imagine the numbers won’t look good either

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It may (hopefully will) depend on what number you look at.

The media will hype number of cases, but the numbers that matter are hospitalizations (and deaths obviously, but that ties to the number hospitalized).

If the trend of lower percentages of new cases needing hospital care continues, nobody will or really should care too much about the number of new cases.

Our governor constantly hypes cases with “possible “ hospitalizations though

I know of one state that if you test positive for covid, even if you are hospitalized for a different reason, you count as covid, even if you don’t show symptoms. I can understand doing that because you have to isolate the patient.

I gave up on looking for state by state a while back. Just too much work.

From a technical and elegance standpoint Alabama’s is crap but the pertinent numbers are there - even if the buttons you used to pull them up aren’t labeled.

Wow. I’m sorry for your experience, Cobra. Don’t know if I was included in the “judgemental fricks” segment but you, sir, have a valid medical reason for not wearing a mask. You’ll get no grief from me.

I get the idea that wearing a mask helps promote an awareness of the severity of this virus but aside from that, and especially considering conflicting opinions about the effectiveness of the majority of masks, I'm not sure I even need to.

For year I have been a little germaphobic. I would avoid shaking hands if possible. I always traveled with handy wipes in my vehicle and after being in a public place would wash my hands. So I think I was a little ahead of the curve in this respect, and have gotten only more careful and aware of staying clean.

Now I go into a public place only when absolutely necessary and I wear rubber gloves but no mask. I go directly to the product I am there to buy and get out as soon as possible. I stay at least 6 feet from anybody if at all possible. If somebody walks into that space, I separate myself.

So other than promoting this awareness of the responsibility of each individual, how would wearing a mask protect me or others? I would note that I have shown no symptoms of covid19.