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#6 Auburn (9-2) vs #1 Alabama (11-0) (-4.5) (O/U 47.5) - Prediction Model
Posted on 11/21/17 at 5:18 pm
Posted on 11/21/17 at 5:18 pm
VS TOP 75 OPPONENTS IN EACH AREA (PASS O, PASS D, RUSH O, RUSH)
#6 Auburn vs #1 Alabama
#1 ALABAMA 26
#6 AUBURN 25
Total Yards
Alabama : 389 yards (5.48 YPP) (71 Plays (SEC Avg))
Auburn : 376 yards (5.22 YPP) (72 Plays (SEC Avg))
Rush Yards
Alabama : 183 yards (3.90 YPA) (47 Rushes)
Auburn : 170 yards (3.55 YPA) (48 Rushes)
Pass Yards
Alabama : 206 yards (8.57 YPA) (24 Passes (SEC Avg))
Auburn : 206 yards (8.57 YPA) (24 Passes (SEC Avg))
#6 Auburn vs #1 Alabama
#1 ALABAMA 26
#6 AUBURN 25
Total Yards
Alabama : 389 yards (5.48 YPP) (71 Plays (SEC Avg))
Auburn : 376 yards (5.22 YPP) (72 Plays (SEC Avg))
Rush Yards
Alabama : 183 yards (3.90 YPA) (47 Rushes)
Auburn : 170 yards (3.55 YPA) (48 Rushes)
Pass Yards
Alabama : 206 yards (8.57 YPA) (24 Passes (SEC Avg))
Auburn : 206 yards (8.57 YPA) (24 Passes (SEC Avg))
This post was edited on 11/23/17 at 8:55 am
11
Posted on 11/21/17 at 5:20 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Jesus H George could we get it a little closer.
Posted on 11/21/17 at 5:31 pm to CrimsonBoz
quote:
Jesus H George could we get it a little closer.
It's wild. We're almost mirror images of eachother.
Against Top 75 competition (using YPA Rush, QB Rating)......
OFFENSES
- Alabama rushes for 106% of their opponents average yards per rush (vs Top 75 P5 run defenses)
- Auburn rushes for 109% of their opponents average yards per rush (vs Top 75 P5 run defenses)
- Alabama passes for 124% of their opponents yards per attempt (vs Top 75 P5 pass defenses)
- Auburn passes for 133% of their opponents yards per attempt (vs Top 75 P5 pass defenses)
DEFENSES
- Alabama defense gives up 57% of their opponents rush yards per attempt (vs Top 75 P5 rush offenses)
- Auburn defense gives up 71% of their opponents rush yards per attempt (vs Top 75 P5 rush offenses)
- Alabama defense gives up 63% of their opponents pass yards per attempt (vs Top 75 P5 pass offenses)
- Auburn defense gives up 81% of their opponents pass yards per attempt (vs Top 75 pass offenses)
YARDS PER POINT
- Alabama averages 12.70 Yards Per Point vs FBS teams with winning records
- Auburn averages 11.60 Yards Per Point vs FBS teams with winning records
- Alabama gives up 18.70 Yards Per Point vs FBS teams with winning records
- Auburn gives up 17.50 Yards Per Point vs FBS teams with winning records
Alabama's defense is slightly better than Auburn's and Auburn's offense is slightly better than Alabama's.
This post was edited on 11/21/17 at 5:31 pm
Posted on 11/21/17 at 5:38 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
#1 ALABAMA 26
#6 AUBURN 25
Posted on 11/21/17 at 5:42 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Out of curiosity..
How accurate have your threads been this season?
How accurate have your threads been this season?
Posted on 11/21/17 at 5:47 pm to ReauxlTide222
quote:
How accurate have your threads been this season?
The yards per play figures have been pretty close. The points and total yardage are completely based on YPP and number of plays. So..........a lot of it rests there.
It's not perfect but it does find interesting things. For example, it predicted State would run for 4.7 YPA against us. And that was based on what State had done to that point and our rush defense to that point..........so it wasn't exactly on (State ran for 3.5 YPA), but it did point out that "Hey, don't be surprised if State gets some rush yards consistently".
Alabama vs Mississippi State
Alabama YPP
Expected : 5.77
Actual : 7.93
Mississippi State YPP
Expected : 4.12
Actual : 4.52
Alabama vs LSU
Alabama YPP
Expected : 5.98
Actual : 4.98
LSU YPP
Expected : 4.35
Actual : 4.19
Alabama vs Tennessee
Alabama YPP
Expected : 7.07
Actual : 7.02
Tennessee YPP
Expected : 3.05
Actual : 2.35
This post was edited on 11/21/17 at 5:57 pm
Posted on 11/21/17 at 6:19 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
#1 ALABAMA 26
#6 AUBURN 25
This post was edited on 11/21/17 at 6:21 pm
Posted on 11/21/17 at 6:50 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Pass Yards Alabama : 206 yards (8.56 YPA) (24 Passes (SEC Avg))
Auburn : 206 yards (8.57 YPA) (24 Passes (SEC Avg))
Is this some of the new Common Core math or am I being dumb?
Thanks for your effort tho I'd prefer you "massage" the score so it's a larger margin of victory in our favor.
Posted on 11/21/17 at 6:57 pm to NoleTideNole
LoL
Posted on 11/21/17 at 7:30 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Gonna need a couple of quaaludes for this one
Posted on 11/21/17 at 10:48 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Posted on 11/21/17 at 10:53 pm to FairhopeTider
Don't worry, it'll probably come down to a field goal. We excel in those situations and Auburn sucks at it.
Posted on 11/21/17 at 11:29 pm to SummerOfGeorge
On that note, I think we will need a NOT or points off a turnover in order to counter the 6+ points Carlson will probably get AU outside of 40 yards. Of course JK can give us a hidden yardage advantage.
Posted on 11/22/17 at 6:49 am to SummerOfGeorge
So your numbers have been damn close all year. These numbers are what you would get on a neutral field so given that this game is being played on the road at one of the toughest places to play I assume we should give them 3 to 7 points for playing at home making them the favorite by your numbers. Or am I wrong?
Posted on 11/22/17 at 8:09 am to Commander Data
quote:
These numbers are what you would get on a neutral field
Nah, doesn't really come into play here.
Posted on 11/22/17 at 8:10 am to FairhopeTider
quote:
On that note, I think we will need a NOT or points off a turnover
We have one of the best secondary's in the land so if anyone could do it they can.
Posted on 11/22/17 at 8:10 am to Commander Data
quote:...
These numbers are what you would get on a neutral field
I don't think so. These are based on actual game results, both home and away, given the parameters SummerofGeorge uses. Since home and away are already factored in, and since his analysis has been pretty darn spot-on for both home and away games all year, I think this is a good predictor.
Now, mind you, if this is a one-point game, I don't feel comfortable at all. I think we need to be up by at least 14 points in the fourth quarter to offset any miracles or weirdness that always seem to happen in that cursed place.
This post was edited on 11/22/17 at 8:12 am
Posted on 11/22/17 at 8:12 am to Sauron
quote:
Now, mind you, if this is a one-point game, I don't feel comfortable at all. I think we need to be up by at least 14 points in the fourth quarter to offset any miracles or weirdness that always seem to happen in that cursed place.
If this comes down to a single point I may not make it through the game and if I see a single miracle play early I will flip my shite.
Posted on 11/22/17 at 8:14 am to SummerOfGeorge
Gonna need you to run the numbers again because I’m not prepared for a one point game. Thanks
Posted on 11/22/17 at 8:17 am to Riseupfromtherubble
Maybe the 1 point includes the Miracle play???????
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